Emmen 3-3 Ajax – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Ajax at 61% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Emmen vs Ajax encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Ajax make the trip to De Oude Meerdijk to face Emmen in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 14. The match kicks off on Saturday 12 November 2022 at 17:45 UTC.
Form
Emmen (all games): 1W 3D 6L across 10 Eredivisie fixtures this term — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L D L D W. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Emmen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Emmen have posted 5W 4D 1L at De Oude Meerdijk — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at De Oude Meerdijk. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Emmen are significantly better at De Oude Meerdijk than their overall form suggests.
Ajax have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Eredivisie outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: W W W L D. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Ajax, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ajax's form when playing away from home: 7W 2D 1L across 10 road games this term (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On a straight form reading, Ajax are the stronger side — 1.40 PPG clear of the hosts (2.00 vs 0.60). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading & In-Play
Emmen — key trading statistics (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
Ajax — key trading statistics (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; they lead at the break 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 51%; they keep a clean sheet 55% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Emmen 43% versus Ajax 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Emmen 47% | Ajax 72%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Emmen 0.82 xG and Ajax 1.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Emmen attack 0.598 / defence 0.985 | Ajax attack 1.402 / defence 0.873. League average goals — home 1.580 / away 1.328. Emmen's attack strength of 0.598 is below the league average — the 0.82 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Ajax have an above-average attack strength of 1.402 — the away xG of 1.83 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 13 Emmen games / 47 Ajax games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Emmen 16% | Draw 23% | Ajax 61%. Fair-value odds: Emmen 6.25 | Draw 4.35 | Ajax 1.64. The model has a clear lean to Ajax (61%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ajax are the pick at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.66 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 50% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Emmen 40% | Ajax 70%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Emmen vs Ajax | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: De Oude Meerdijk • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Nov 2022, 17:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Emmen 16% | Draw 23% | Ajax 61% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 47% | xG Emmen 0.82 / Ajax 1.83 • Poisson strength factors: Emmen attack 0.598 / def 0.985 | Ajax attack 1.402 / def 0.873 | league avg home 1.580 / away 1.328 • Poisson stance: Ajax (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.82
Emmen xG
Expected Goals
1.83
Ajax xG
47%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Emmen vs Ajax kick off?
Emmen vs Ajax kicked off at 17:45 on Saturday 12 November 2022 at De Oude Meerdijk.
What was the final score in Emmen vs Ajax?
Emmen 3 - 3 Ajax.
Where is Emmen vs Ajax being played?
The match is being played at De Oude Meerdijk.
What competition is Emmen vs Ajax part of?
Emmen vs Ajax is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Emmen vs Ajax?
Our statistical model gives Emmen a 16% chance of winning, Ajax a 61% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Ajax the favourite.
Will both teams score in Emmen vs Ajax?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Emmen and Ajax will score (BTTS).
Will Emmen vs Ajax have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Emmen and Ajax?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Emmen and Ajax in?
Emmen (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-L-D-W. Ajax (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 3.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Emmen's attack at 0.60x the league average against Ajax's defence at 0.87x — combine the two and it projects 0.82 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Ajax's attack (1.40x) against Emmen's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.83.
These ratings are built from 13/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-2 (11.8%), 0-1 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ajax Win
16%
6.20
23%
4.37
61%
1.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.8%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
11.8%
Away win
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.82
Emmen xG
Total xG
2.66
1.83
Ajax xG
6.20
16%
Home win
4.37
23%
Draw
1.64
61%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
16%
6.26
44%
2.28
Win to Nil
3%
38.80
27%
3.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 12.8 | 11.8 | 7.2 | 3.3 | 1.2 |
| 1 | 5.8 | 10.6 | 9.7 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 2.4 | 4.4 | 4.0 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Emmen vs Ajax?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Emmen and Ajax expected to score?
The model projects 0.82 expected goals for Emmen and 1.83 for Ajax, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Emmen vs Ajax?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Emmen's recent record stands at 27W 8D 12L from 47 games, a 1.89 PPG return, with L-D-L-D-W in the last five. The sample for Emmen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ajax, meanwhile, have gone 35W 7D 5L across 47 games — 2.38 PPG, with W-W-W-L-D in their last five. The sample for Ajax is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Ajax by 0.49 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Emmen heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Emmen have managed 16W 4D 3L from 23 games — 2.26 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ajax's away record stands at 17W 4D 2L across 23 trips, a 2.39 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Emmen are averaging 1.51 goals scored and 0.91 conceded per game recently; Ajax are on 2.96 scored and 0.70 conceded. Ajax's attacking output running into Emmen's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
Defensively: Emmen have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games; Ajax in 55% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 47 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Emmen
Blended
Ajax
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Emmen and Ajax in coming into this match?
Emmen have gone 27W 8D 12L in their last 47 games (1.89 PPG), while Ajax have gone 35W 7D 5L in their last 47 (2.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Emmen at home or Ajax away?
Ajax's away record (2.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Emmen at home: 2.26 PPG; Ajax away: 2.39 PPG.
Have Emmen or Ajax been keeping clean sheets recently?
Emmen have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Ajax in 55%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since November 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Emmen
1
Draws
1
Ajax
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Emmen and Ajax?
From 2 meetings on record, Emmen have won 0, Ajax have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Emmen and Ajax last play each other?
They last met on 16 April 2023, when Ajax 3-1 Emmen.
Who has won more matches between Emmen and Ajax?
Ajax have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Emmen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Ajax are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 65% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Emmen 44%, Ajax 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Emmen) and 56% (Ajax).
On the defensive side: Emmen keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Ajax in 52%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Emmen home games / Ajax away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Emmen play Ajax?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Emmen's recent matches and 48% of Ajax's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Emmen vs Ajax usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Emmen's recent games and 56% of Ajax's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Emmen and Ajax tend to score early?
Emmen have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Ajax in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Emmen and Ajax share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Emmen and Ajax finished level at 3-3 at De Oude Meerdijk, Regular Season - 14, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Emmen 0.82 xG and Ajax 1.83 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Emmen beat their projection by 2.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Ajax outscored their 1.83 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Emmen attack 0.60 / defence 0.98 against Ajax attack 1.40 / defence 0.87, drawn from 13/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Emmen 16% | Draw 23% | Ajax 61%, with Ajax to win its most likely call at 61%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Emmen 47%, Ajax 72%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Emmen's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Ajax's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 55% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Ajax arrived the stronger side — 2.38 PPG against 1.89. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Emmen (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 0.70 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Ajax (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.78 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.