Cambuur 1-2 NEC Nijmegen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates NEC Nijmegen at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cambuur vs NEC Nijmegen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eredivisie encounter, Regular Season - 28 sees NEC Nijmegen travel to Cambuur Stadion to take on Cambuur. The game is scheduled for Sunday 3 April 2022, 15:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Cambuur — All Games: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Eredivisie outings this season, averaging 0.60 points per game. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Cambuur, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Cambuur have posted 3W 1D 6L at Cambuur Stadion — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Eredivisie games this season, NEC Nijmegen have recorded 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for NEC Nijmegen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
NEC Nijmegen away from home this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.70 exceeds their overall 1.00 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Cambuur 0.60 PPG, NEC Nijmegen 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Cambuur, 0 for NEC Nijmegen and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 5.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 26 Nov 2021, ended 3–2 with Cambuur winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Cambuur trading profile (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 92% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 85% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
NEC Nijmegen trading profile (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Cambuur 70% and NEC Nijmegen 56% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cambuur 74% | NEC Nijmegen 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cambuur 2.02 xG and NEC Nijmegen 2.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cambuur attack 1.176 / defence 1.678 | NEC Nijmegen attack 0.952 / defence 1.515. League average goals — home 1.134 / away 1.309. NEC Nijmegen bring a strong defensive rating of 1.515 — this is suppressing Cambuur's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 27 Cambuur games / 27 NEC Nijmegen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cambuur 38% | Draw 20% | NEC Nijmegen 41%. Fair-value odds: Cambuur 2.63 | Draw 5.00 | NEC Nijmegen 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 20% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 78% | BTTS probability 76% | Total xG 4.11. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 78% — a total xG of 4.11 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 76% reflects that both xG figures (2.02 / 2.09) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates NEC Nijmegen as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. The opposing side holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 4.11 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 78% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 76% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Cambuur 100% | NEC Nijmegen 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cambuur vs NEC Nijmegen | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Cambuur Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Apr 2022, 15:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cambuur 38% | Draw 20% | NEC Nijmegen 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 78% | BTTS 76% | xG Cambuur 2.02 / NEC Nijmegen 2.09 • Poisson strength factors: Cambuur attack 1.176 / def 1.678 | NEC Nijmegen attack 0.952 / def 1.515 | league avg home 1.134 / away 1.309 • Poisson stance: NEC Nijmegen (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
2.02
Cambuur xG
Expected Goals
2.09
NEC Nijmegen xG
76%
BTTS
92%
Over 1.5
78%
Over 2.5
59%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cambuur vs NEC Nijmegen kick off?
Cambuur vs NEC Nijmegen kicked off at 15:45 on Sunday 3 April 2022 at Cambuur Stadion.
What was the final score in Cambuur vs NEC Nijmegen?
Cambuur 1 - 2 NEC Nijmegen.
Where is Cambuur vs NEC Nijmegen being played?
The match is being played at Cambuur Stadion.
What competition is Cambuur vs NEC Nijmegen part of?
Cambuur vs NEC Nijmegen is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Cambuur vs NEC Nijmegen?
Our statistical model gives Cambuur a 38% chance of winning, NEC Nijmegen a 41% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making NEC Nijmegen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cambuur vs NEC Nijmegen?
Our model estimates a 76% probability that both Cambuur and NEC Nijmegen will score (BTTS).
Will Cambuur vs NEC Nijmegen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 78%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cambuur and NEC Nijmegen?
Record (1 meetings): Cambuur 1W | Draws 0 | NEC Nijmegen 0W.
What form are Cambuur and NEC Nijmegen in?
Cambuur (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W-L-L-L. NEC Nijmegen (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Cambuur's attacking strength (1.18x league average) is weighed against NEC Nijmegen's defensive record (1.51x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.02. The same calculation in reverse, NEC Nijmegen's attack versus Cambuur's defence, projects 2.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 27/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 7.8%. Close behind: 2-2 (7.3%), 1-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 22% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
NEC Nijmegen Win
38%
2.60
20%
4.91
41%
2.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 2
7.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
7.2%
Away win
2 – 1
7.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.02
Cambuur xG
Total xG
4.11
2.09
NEC Nijmegen xG
2.60
38%
Home win
4.91
20%
Draw
2.43
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
92%
Over 1.5
1.09
8%
Under 1.5
12.50
78%
Over 2.5
1.28
22%
Under 2.5
4.55
59%
Over 3.5
1.69
41%
Under 3.5
2.44
39%
Over 4.5
2.56
61%
Under 4.5
1.64
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
76%
BTTS Yes
1.32
24%
BTTS No
4.17
Clean Sheet
12%
8.10
13%
7.53
Win to Nil
5%
21.09
5%
18.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.6 | 3.4 | 3.6 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 3.3 | 6.9 | 7.2 | 5.0 | 2.6 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 3.3 | 7.0 | 7.3 | 5.1 | 2.7 | 1.1 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 4.7 | 4.9 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 0.8 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cambuur vs NEC Nijmegen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 7.8%.
How many goals are Cambuur and NEC Nijmegen expected to score?
The model projects 2.02 expected goals for Cambuur and 2.09 for NEC Nijmegen, a combined total of 4.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Cambuur vs NEC Nijmegen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Cambuur's recent record stands at 10W 3D 14L from 27 games, a 1.22 PPG return, with L-W-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Cambuur is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
NEC Nijmegen, meanwhile, have gone 8W 8D 11L across 27 games — 1.19 PPG, with D-L-L-L-D in their last five. The sample for NEC Nijmegen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cambuur on 1.22 PPG, NEC Nijmegen on 1.19. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Cambuur have managed 5W 1D 7L from 13 games — 1.23 PPG in front of their own supporters.
NEC Nijmegen's away record stands at 6W 3D 4L across 13 trips, a 1.62 PPG haul. That's actually stronger than their 1.19 PPG overall record — NEC Nijmegen travel well.
The Goals Picture
Cambuur are averaging 1.59 goals scored and 2.15 conceded per game recently; NEC Nijmegen are on 1.22 scored and 1.59 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cambuur have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games.
Last 27 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cambuur
Blended
NEC Nijmegen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cambuur and NEC Nijmegen in coming into this match?
Cambuur have gone 10W 3D 14L in their last 27 games (1.22 PPG), while NEC Nijmegen have gone 8W 8D 11L in their last 27 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cambuur at home or NEC Nijmegen away?
NEC Nijmegen's away record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cambuur at home: 1.23 PPG; NEC Nijmegen away: 1.62 PPG.
Have Cambuur or NEC Nijmegen been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cambuur have kept a clean sheet in 15% of their recent games, NEC Nijmegen in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Cambuur and NEC Nijmegen runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Cambuur's record when hosting NEC Nijmegen specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Cambuur
1
Draws
2
NEC Nijmegen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cambuur and NEC Nijmegen?
From 4 meetings on record, Cambuur have won 1, NEC Nijmegen have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Cambuur and NEC Nijmegen last play each other?
They last met on 11 February 2023, when NEC Nijmegen 0-0 Cambuur.
Who has won more matches between Cambuur and NEC Nijmegen?
NEC Nijmegen have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Cambuur are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches.
NEC Nijmegen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Cambuur at 92%, NEC Nijmegen at 69%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 85% for Cambuur and 46% for NEC Nijmegen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 31% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: NEC Nijmegen in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cambuur home games / NEC Nijmegen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cambuur play NEC Nijmegen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 92% of Cambuur's games and 69% of NEC Nijmegen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cambuur vs NEC Nijmegen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 85% of Cambuur's matches and 46% of NEC Nijmegen's.
Do Cambuur and NEC Nijmegen tend to score early?
Cambuur have had a goal before half-time in 92% of their recent matches, NEC Nijmegen in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as NEC Nijmegen edge out Cambuur 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
NEC Nijmegen beat Cambuur 1-2 at Cambuur Stadion, Regular Season - 28, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cambuur 2.02 xG and NEC Nijmegen 2.09 xG, a combined 4.11. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Cambuur fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cambuur attack 1.18 / defence 1.68 against NEC Nijmegen attack 0.95 / defence 1.51, drawn from 27/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cambuur 38% | Draw 20% | NEC Nijmegen 41%, with NEC Nijmegen to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 78%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 92% and landed. Over 3.5 was 59% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 76% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cambuur 74%, NEC Nijmegen 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cambuur's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
NEC Nijmegen's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cambuur 1.22 PPG, NEC Nijmegen 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the NEC Nijmegen win broke the near-deadlock. Cambuur (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.92 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.