Cambuur 1-2 Heerenveen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Heerenveen at 48%, yet in-form Cambuur provide a compelling counter-argument — this Cambuur vs Heerenveen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Cambuurstadion plays host to Cambuur versus Heerenveen in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off: Sunday 19 December 2021 at 11:15 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Cambuur have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Eredivisie outings this season: 6W 0D 4L. Last five: W W W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Cambuur, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cambuur's form when playing at home: 4W 0D 4L across 8 games at Cambuurstadion this term (1.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 88% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Heerenveen's overall Eredivisie record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: D W D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Heerenveen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Heerenveen's away record: 3W 2D 2L from 7 road trips in Eredivisie this season (1.57 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 7 away games (43%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 57% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form ledger tips toward Cambuur. A 0.60 PPG lead over Heerenveen (1.80 vs 1.20) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Trading
Cambuur half-time and goal-timing data (16 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 86% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 86% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 56%.
Heerenveen half-time and goal-timing data (16 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Cambuur 69% and Heerenveen 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cambuur 81% | Heerenveen 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cambuur 1.33 xG and Heerenveen 1.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cambuur attack 1.113 / defence 1.679 | Heerenveen attack 0.768 / defence 0.969. League average goals — home 1.235 / away 1.376. Data: 16 Cambuur games / 16 Heerenveen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cambuur 29% | Draw 23% | Heerenveen 48%. Fair-value odds: Cambuur 3.45 | Draw 4.35 | Heerenveen 2.08. Heerenveen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.11. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.11 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.33 / 1.77) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Heerenveen as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Cambuur (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Heerenveen if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.11 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate: Cambuur 88% | Heerenveen 57% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cambuur vs Heerenveen | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Cambuurstadion • Kick-off: Sunday 19 Dec 2021, 11:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cambuur 29% | Draw 23% | Heerenveen 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 61% | xG Cambuur 1.33 / Heerenveen 1.77 • Poisson strength factors: Cambuur attack 1.113 / def 1.679 | Heerenveen attack 0.768 / def 0.969 | league avg home 1.235 / away 1.376 • Poisson stance: Heerenveen (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Cambuur xG
Expected Goals
1.77
Heerenveen xG
61%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cambuur vs Heerenveen kick off?
Cambuur vs Heerenveen kicked off at 11:15 on Sunday 19 December 2021 at Cambuurstadion.
What was the final score in Cambuur vs Heerenveen?
Cambuur 1 - 2 Heerenveen.
Where is Cambuur vs Heerenveen being played?
The match is being played at Cambuurstadion.
What competition is Cambuur vs Heerenveen part of?
Cambuur vs Heerenveen is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Cambuur vs Heerenveen?
Our statistical model gives Cambuur a 29% chance of winning, Heerenveen a 48% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Heerenveen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cambuur vs Heerenveen?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Cambuur and Heerenveen will score (BTTS).
Will Cambuur vs Heerenveen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cambuur and Heerenveen?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Cambuur and Heerenveen in?
Cambuur (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-W-W-L-W. Heerenveen (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Cambuur's attack rating (1.11) and Heerenveen's defence rating (0.97), the model arrives at 1.33 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Heerenveen's attack (0.77x) against Cambuur's defence (1.68x) — and the away total comes out at 1.77.
These ratings are built from 16/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 2-1 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Heerenveen Win
29%
3.47
23%
4.29
48%
2.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
0 – 1
7.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Cambuur xG
Total xG
3.11
1.77
Heerenveen xG
3.47
29%
Home win
4.29
23%
Draw
2.09
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.58
Clean Sheet
17%
5.89
26%
3.79
Win to Nil
5%
20.43
13%
7.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 7.9 | 7.0 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 10.6 | 9.4 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 7.0 | 6.3 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 3.1 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cambuur vs Heerenveen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Cambuur and Heerenveen expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Cambuur and 1.77 for Heerenveen, a combined total of 3.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Cambuur vs Heerenveen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Cambuur's recent record stands at 9W 0D 7L from 16 games, a 1.69 PPG return, with W-W-W-L-W in the last five. The sample for Cambuur is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Heerenveen, meanwhile, have gone 6W 4D 6L across 16 games — 1.38 PPG, with D-W-D-W-D in their last five. The sample for Heerenveen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.69 PPG for Cambuur against 1.38 for Heerenveen. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Cambuur have managed 4W 0D 3L from 7 games — 1.71 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Heerenveen's away record stands at 3W 2D 2L across 7 trips, a 1.57 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Cambuur are averaging 1.88 goals scored and 2.25 conceded per game recently; Heerenveen are on 1.12 scored and 1.31 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cambuur have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games; Heerenveen in 62%.
Last 16 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cambuur
Blended
Heerenveen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cambuur and Heerenveen in coming into this match?
Cambuur have gone 9W 0D 7L in their last 16 games (1.69 PPG), while Heerenveen have gone 6W 4D 6L in their last 16 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cambuur at home or Heerenveen away?
Cambuur's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cambuur at home: 1.71 PPG; Heerenveen away: 1.57 PPG.
Have Cambuur or Heerenveen been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cambuur have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Heerenveen in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Heerenveen go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cambuur have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Heerenveen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Cambuur
1
Draws
3
Heerenveen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cambuur and Heerenveen?
From 4 meetings on record, Cambuur have won 0, Heerenveen have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Cambuur and Heerenveen last play each other?
They last met on 19 February 2023, when Cambuur 1-2 Heerenveen.
Who has won more matches between Cambuur and Heerenveen?
Heerenveen have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Cambuur are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches.
Heerenveen see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 86% for Cambuur, 57% for Heerenveen — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 86% (Cambuur) and 29% (Heerenveen). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 57% and 14% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Heerenveen in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cambuur home games / Heerenveen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cambuur play Heerenveen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 86% of Cambuur's games and 57% of Heerenveen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cambuur vs Heerenveen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 86% of Cambuur's matches and 29% of Heerenveen's.
Do Cambuur and Heerenveen tend to score early?
Cambuur have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Heerenveen in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Heerenveen edge out Cambuur 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Heerenveen beat Cambuur 1-2 at Cambuurstadion, Regular Season - 17, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cambuur 1.33 xG and Heerenveen 1.77 xG, a combined 3.11. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cambuur attack 1.11 / defence 1.68 against Heerenveen attack 0.77 / defence 0.97, drawn from 16/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cambuur 29% | Draw 23% | Heerenveen 48%, with Heerenveen to win its most likely call at 48%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cambuur 81%, Heerenveen 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cambuur's trading profile (16 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
Heerenveen's trading profile (16 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cambuur 1.69 PPG, Heerenveen 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Heerenveen win broke the near-deadlock. Cambuur (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.14 scoring average — below par going forward. Heerenveen (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.