Cambuur 1-2 Groningen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cambuur at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cambuur vs Groningen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Groningen make the trip to Cambuurstadion to face Cambuur in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 1. The match kicks off on Sunday 15 August 2021 at 11:15 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cambuur 1.06 xG and Groningen 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cambuur attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Groningen attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.088 / away 0.808. Data: 0 Cambuur games / 0 Groningen games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Cambuur 41% | Draw 32% | Groningen 27%. Fair-value odds: Cambuur 2.44 | Draw 3.12 | Groningen 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.85. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.85 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Cambuur are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cambuur if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.85 combined xG gives a 28% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cambuur vs Groningen | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Cambuurstadion • Kick-off: Sunday 15 Aug 2021, 11:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cambuur 41% | Draw 32% | Groningen 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% | BTTS 36% | xG Cambuur 1.06 / Groningen 0.79 • Poisson strength factors: Cambuur attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Groningen attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.088 / away 0.808 • Poisson stance: Cambuur (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Cambuur xG
Expected Goals
0.79
Groningen xG
36%
BTTS
55%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cambuur vs Groningen kick off?
Cambuur vs Groningen kicked off at 11:15 on Sunday 15 August 2021 at Cambuurstadion.
What was the final score in Cambuur vs Groningen?
Cambuur 1 - 2 Groningen.
Where is Cambuur vs Groningen being played?
The match is being played at Cambuurstadion.
What competition is Cambuur vs Groningen part of?
Cambuur vs Groningen is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Cambuur vs Groningen?
Our statistical model gives Cambuur a 41% chance of winning, Groningen a 27% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Cambuur the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cambuur vs Groningen?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Cambuur and Groningen will score (BTTS).
Will Cambuur vs Groningen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cambuur and Groningen?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Cambuur and Groningen in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Cambuur's attack rating (0.85) and Groningen's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.06 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Groningen's attack (0.85x) against Cambuur's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 0.79.
These ratings are built from 0/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 17.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (15.0%), 1-1 (14.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cambuur Win
41%
2.41
32%
3.14
27%
3.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.7%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.7%
Draw
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Cambuur xG
Total xG
1.85
0.79
Groningen xG
2.41
41%
Home win
3.14
32%
Draw
3.75
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.80
64%
BTTS No
1.56
Clean Sheet
45%
2.20
35%
2.90
Win to Nil
19%
5.32
9%
10.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.7 | 12.4 | 4.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 16.7 | 13.2 | 5.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 8.9 | 7.0 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.1 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cambuur vs Groningen?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.4%.
How many goals are Cambuur and Groningen expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Cambuur and 0.79 for Groningen, a combined total of 1.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Cambuur vs Groningen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cambuur
Pre-Season
Groningen
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eredivisie, Eerste Divisie all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Groningen won 3-0 on 20 Apr 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cambuur have gone 1W 0D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Groningen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Cambuur
0
Draws
3
Groningen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cambuur and Groningen?
From 6 meetings on record, Cambuur have won 3, Groningen have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Cambuur and Groningen last play each other?
They last met on 20 April 2024, when Groningen 3-0 Cambuur.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cambuur home games / Groningen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as Groningen defy the odds to beat Cambuur 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Groningen beat Cambuur 1-2 at Cambuurstadion, Regular Season - 1, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cambuur 1.06 xG and Groningen 0.79 xG, a combined 1.85. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Groningen outscored their 0.79 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cambuur attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Groningen attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 0/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cambuur 41% | Draw 32% | Groningen 27%, with Cambuur to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Groningen win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 55% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.