Cambuur 2-3 Feyenoord – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Feyenoord at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cambuur vs Feyenoord encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eredivisie clash, Regular Season - 10 as Cambuur welcome Feyenoord to Cambuurstadion. Kick-off is set for Sunday 24 October 2021 at 13:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eredivisie games this season, Cambuur have gone 4W 0D 5L from 9 outings — a 1.33 PPG return. Last five: L W W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.78 goals per game, with 2.44 conceded. However, 2.44 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 9 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Cambuur, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cambuur's home record at Cambuurstadion: 3W 0D 2L from 5 Eredivisie appearances (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Feyenoord stand at 5W 1D 2L from 8 Eredivisie matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W W L D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.75 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets in 8 outings (38%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 62% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Feyenoord, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Feyenoord have gone 2W 0D 2L from 4 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 2 away clean sheets from 4 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Feyenoord are 0.67 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 1.33), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Trading Patterns
Cambuur in-play and half-time data (8 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 62%.
Feyenoord in-play and half-time data (8 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 75%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cambuur 50% versus Feyenoord 62%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Cambuur 75% | Feyenoord 88%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cambuur 1.47 xG and Feyenoord 1.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cambuur attack 1.071 / defence 1.274 | Feyenoord attack 1.095 / defence 1.043. League average goals — home 1.316 / away 1.378. Data: 9 Cambuur games / 8 Feyenoord games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cambuur 30% | Draw 22% | Feyenoord 48%. Fair-value odds: Cambuur 3.33 | Draw 4.55 | Feyenoord 2.08. Feyenoord hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.39. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.39 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.47 / 1.92) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Feyenoord at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Feyenoord offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.39 combined xG gives a 66% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 66% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Cambuur 80% | Feyenoord 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cambuur vs Feyenoord | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Cambuurstadion • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Oct 2021, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cambuur 30% | Draw 22% | Feyenoord 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 66% | xG Cambuur 1.47 / Feyenoord 1.92 • Poisson strength factors: Cambuur attack 1.071 / def 1.274 | Feyenoord attack 1.095 / def 1.043 | league avg home 1.316 / away 1.378 • Poisson stance: Feyenoord (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Cambuur xG
Expected Goals
1.92
Feyenoord xG
66%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cambuur vs Feyenoord kick off?
Cambuur vs Feyenoord kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 24 October 2021 at Cambuurstadion.
What was the final score in Cambuur vs Feyenoord?
Cambuur 2 - 3 Feyenoord.
Where is Cambuur vs Feyenoord being played?
The match is being played at Cambuurstadion.
What competition is Cambuur vs Feyenoord part of?
Cambuur vs Feyenoord is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Cambuur vs Feyenoord?
Our statistical model gives Cambuur a 30% chance of winning, Feyenoord a 48% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Feyenoord the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cambuur vs Feyenoord?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Cambuur and Feyenoord will score (BTTS).
Will Cambuur vs Feyenoord have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cambuur and Feyenoord?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Cambuur and Feyenoord in?
Cambuur (all comps): 4W-0D-5L in 9 | 1.33 PPG | GF 1.78 / GA 2.44 | L5 L-W-W-L-L. Feyenoord (all comps): 5W-1D-2L in 8 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.75 / GA 1.38 | L5 W-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Cambuur's attack rating (1.07) and Feyenoord's defence rating (1.04), the model arrives at 1.47 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Feyenoord's attack versus Cambuur's defence, projects 1.92 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 9/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 2-1 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Feyenoord Win
30%
3.38
22%
4.52
48%
2.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
2 – 1
7.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Cambuur xG
Total xG
3.39
1.92
Feyenoord xG
3.38
30%
Home win
4.52
22%
Draw
2.07
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.52
34%
BTTS No
2.92
Clean Sheet
15%
6.84
23%
4.35
Win to Nil
4%
23.11
11%
9.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 6.5 | 6.2 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 4.9 | 9.5 | 9.1 | 5.9 | 2.8 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 7.0 | 6.7 | 4.3 | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cambuur vs Feyenoord?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are Cambuur and Feyenoord expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Cambuur and 1.92 for Feyenoord, a combined total of 3.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Cambuur vs Feyenoord?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Cambuur's recent record stands at 4W 0D 4L from 8 games, a 1.50 PPG return, with L-W-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for Cambuur is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Feyenoord, meanwhile, have gone 5W 1D 2L across 8 games — 2.00 PPG, with W-W-W-L-D in their last five. The sample for Feyenoord is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Feyenoord by 0.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Cambuur heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Cambuur have managed 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — 2.25 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.50 PPG overall — Cambuur are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Feyenoord's away record stands at 2W 0D 2L across 4 trips, a 1.50 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 2.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Feyenoord's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cambuur come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Cambuur are averaging 1.88 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game recently; Feyenoord are on 2.75 scored and 1.38 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Feyenoord in 62%.
Defensively: Feyenoord in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 8 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cambuur
Blended
Feyenoord
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cambuur and Feyenoord in coming into this match?
Cambuur have gone 4W 0D 4L in their last 8 games (1.50 PPG), while Feyenoord have gone 5W 1D 2L in their last 8 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cambuur at home or Feyenoord away?
Cambuur's home record (2.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cambuur at home: 2.25 PPG; Feyenoord away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Cambuur or Feyenoord been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cambuur have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Feyenoord in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Cambuur and Feyenoord runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Feyenoord have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Apr 2023, when Feyenoord won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Cambuur's record when hosting Feyenoord specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Cambuur
0
Draws
4
Feyenoord
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cambuur and Feyenoord?
From 4 meetings on record, Cambuur have won 0, Feyenoord have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Cambuur and Feyenoord last play each other?
They last met on 16 April 2023, when Cambuur 0-3 Feyenoord.
Who has won more matches between Cambuur and Feyenoord?
Feyenoord have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Cambuur are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Feyenoord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cambuur 75%, Feyenoord 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Cambuur and 100% for Feyenoord. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 75% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Feyenoord in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cambuur home games / Feyenoord away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cambuur play Feyenoord?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Cambuur's games and 50% of Feyenoord's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cambuur vs Feyenoord usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Cambuur's matches and 100% of Feyenoord's.
Do Cambuur and Feyenoord tend to score early?
Cambuur have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Feyenoord in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Feyenoord edge out Cambuur 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Feyenoord beat Cambuur 2-3 at Cambuurstadion, Regular Season - 10, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cambuur 1.47 xG and Feyenoord 1.92 xG, a combined 3.39. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Feyenoord outscored their 1.92 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cambuur attack 1.07 / defence 1.27 against Feyenoord attack 1.09 / defence 1.04, drawn from 9/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cambuur 30% | Draw 22% | Feyenoord 48%, with Feyenoord to win its most likely call at 48%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 81% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cambuur 75%, Feyenoord 88%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cambuur's trading profile (8 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Feyenoord's trading profile (8 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Feyenoord arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.50. Form held, and they took the win. Cambuur (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.