Cambuur 0-5 Ajax – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Ajax (75%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Cambuur face Ajax.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Cambuur and Ajax meet at Cambuur Stadion in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 20. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 5 February 2023 at 11:15 UTC.
Form
Cambuur (all games): 1W 1D 8L across 10 Eredivisie fixtures this term — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L D L W L. They are averaging 0.30 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Cambuur, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Cambuur have posted 1W 0D 9L at Cambuur Stadion — 0.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Ajax have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Eredivisie outings this season: 3W 6D 1L. Last five: D D D D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Ajax, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Ajax have gone 6W 3D 1L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 2.10 exceeds their overall 1.50 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Ajax arrive in superior form — a 1.10 PPG advantage (1.50 vs 0.40) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
Ajax hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 3 wins from 3 meetings. The hosts have won just 0 times in that span.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 6.0 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Sep 2022, ended 0–4 with Ajax winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Ajax have won 3 of 3 previous encounters, and at 6.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading & In-Play
Cambuur — key trading statistics (53 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Ajax — key trading statistics (53 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 66% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 49%; they keep a clean sheet 51% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cambuur 55% versus Ajax 47%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Cambuur 62% | Ajax 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cambuur 0.79 xG and Ajax 2.60 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cambuur attack 0.596 / defence 1.398 | Ajax attack 1.522 / defence 0.915. League average goals — home 1.452 / away 1.222. Cambuur's attack strength of 0.596 is below the league average — the 0.79 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Ajax have an above-average attack strength of 1.522 — the away xG of 2.60 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 53 Cambuur games / 53 Ajax games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cambuur 7% | Draw 18% | Ajax 75%. Fair-value odds: Cambuur 14.29 | Draw 5.56 | Ajax 1.33. The model has a clear lean to Ajax (75%) — a 68pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 3.39. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.39 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ajax at 75% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.39 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 66% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 6.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Cambuur 10% | Ajax 80%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cambuur vs Ajax | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Cambuur Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Feb 2023, 11:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cambuur 7% | Draw 18% | Ajax 75% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 52% | xG Cambuur 0.79 / Ajax 2.60 • Poisson strength factors: Cambuur attack 0.596 / def 1.398 | Ajax attack 1.522 / def 0.915 | league avg home 1.452 / away 1.222 • Poisson stance: Ajax (75%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.79
Cambuur xG
Expected Goals
2.60
Ajax xG
52%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cambuur vs Ajax kick off?
Cambuur vs Ajax kicked off at 11:15 on Sunday 5 February 2023 at Cambuur Stadion.
What was the final score in Cambuur vs Ajax?
Cambuur 0 - 5 Ajax.
Where is Cambuur vs Ajax being played?
The match is being played at Cambuur Stadion.
What competition is Cambuur vs Ajax part of?
Cambuur vs Ajax is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Cambuur vs Ajax?
Our statistical model gives Cambuur a 7% chance of winning, Ajax a 75% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Ajax the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cambuur vs Ajax?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Cambuur and Ajax will score (BTTS).
Will Cambuur vs Ajax have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cambuur and Ajax?
Record (3 meetings): Cambuur 0W | Draws 0 | Ajax 3W.
What form are Cambuur and Ajax in?
Cambuur (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-L-W-L. Ajax (all comps): 3W-6D-1L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Cambuur's attacking strength (0.60x league average) is weighed against Ajax's defensive record (0.92x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.79. Flip it around — Ajax's attack (1.52x) against Cambuur's defence (1.40x) — and the away total comes out at 2.60.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-2, at 11.4%. Close behind: 0-3 (9.9%), 1-2 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ajax Win
7%
13.39
18%
5.56
75%
1.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
11.4%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 3
9.9%
Away win
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.79
Cambuur xG
Total xG
3.39
2.60
Ajax xG
13.39
7%
Home win
5.56
18%
Draw
1.34
75%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
7%
13.46
45%
2.21
Win to Nil
1%
180.24
34%
2.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 8.8 | 11.4 | 9.9 | 6.4 | 3.3 |
| 1 | 2.7 | 6.9 | 9.0 | 7.8 | 5.1 | 2.6 |
| 2 | 1.1 | 2.7 | 3.6 | 3.1 | 2.0 | 1.0 |
| 3 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cambuur vs Ajax?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are Cambuur and Ajax expected to score?
The model projects 0.79 expected goals for Cambuur and 2.60 for Ajax, a combined total of 3.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Cambuur vs Ajax?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 75%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 53 outings, Cambuur have picked up 0.96 PPG on a 14W 9D 30L record — L-D-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Cambuur is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ajax's form line: 36W 12D 5L from 53 games, 2.26 PPG, last five D-D-D-D-W. The sample for Ajax is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Ajax are the form team by 1.30 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Cambuur.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Cambuur have posted 0.78 PPG from 27 outings (6W 3D 18L).
On the road, Ajax have gone 18W 7D 2L from 27 away games — 2.26 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ajax come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Cambuur are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.89 conceded per game recently; Ajax are on 2.81 scored and 0.75 conceded.
Defensively: Ajax in 51% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 53 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cambuur
Blended
Ajax
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cambuur and Ajax in coming into this match?
Cambuur have gone 14W 9D 30L in their last 53 games (0.96 PPG), while Ajax have gone 36W 12D 5L in their last 53 (2.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cambuur at home or Ajax away?
Ajax's away record (2.26 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cambuur at home: 0.78 PPG; Ajax away: 2.26 PPG.
Have Cambuur or Ajax been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cambuur have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Ajax in 51%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Ajax have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Ajax won 9-0 on 18 Sep 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cambuur have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Ajax — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Cambuur
0
Draws
4
Ajax
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cambuur and Ajax?
From 4 meetings on record, Cambuur have won 0, Ajax have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Cambuur and Ajax last play each other?
They last met on 5 February 2023, when Cambuur 0-5 Ajax.
Who has won more matches between Cambuur and Ajax?
Ajax have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Cambuur are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches.
Ajax are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cambuur 63%, Ajax 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Cambuur and 56% for Ajax. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 22% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Ajax in 44%; Cambuur have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cambuur home games / Ajax away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cambuur play Ajax?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Cambuur's games and 56% of Ajax's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cambuur vs Ajax usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Cambuur's matches and 56% of Ajax's.
Do Cambuur and Ajax tend to score early?
Cambuur have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Ajax in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Ajax run riot with a 0-5 hammering of Cambuur.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ajax beat Cambuur 0-5 at Cambuur Stadion, Regular Season - 20, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cambuur 0.79 xG and Ajax 2.60 xG, a combined 3.39. The scoreboard read 0-5 for 5 actual goals. Ajax outscored their 2.60 projection by 2.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cambuur attack 0.60 / defence 1.40 against Ajax attack 1.52 / defence 0.92, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cambuur 7% | Draw 18% | Ajax 75%, with Ajax to win its most likely call at 75%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cambuur 62%, Ajax 68%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cambuur's trading profile (53 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Ajax's trading profile (53 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 51% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Ajax arrived the stronger side — 2.26 PPG against 0.96. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Cambuur (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.22 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.93 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Ajax (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.22 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.89 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.