Almere City FC 0-2 Heracles – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Almere City FC at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Almere City FC vs Heracles fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eredivisie clash, Regular Season - 19 as Almere City FC welcome Heracles to Yanmar Stadion. Kick-off is set for Sunday 19 January 2025 at 13:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eredivisie games this season, Almere City FC have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: L L L W D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Almere City FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Yanmar Stadion, Almere City FC have gone 2W 1D 7L this season (10 games, 0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game.
Heracles — All Games: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Eredivisie fixtures this season — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D L D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Heracles, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Heracles's away record: 1W 1D 8L from 10 road trips in Eredivisie this season (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Almere City FC at 0.80 PPG versus Heracles's 0.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Almere City FC, 1 for Heracles and 3 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 15 Sep 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Almere City FC trading profile (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
Heracles trading profile (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 49%; they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Almere City FC 43% versus Heracles 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Almere City FC 49% | Heracles 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Almere City FC 1.74 xG and Heracles 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Almere City FC attack 0.801 / defence 1.284 | Heracles attack 0.770 / defence 1.276. League average goals — home 1.697 / away 1.305. Heracles bring a strong defensive rating of 1.276 — this is suppressing Almere City FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 52 Almere City FC games / 51 Heracles games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Almere City FC 48% | Draw 24% | Heracles 29%. Fair-value odds: Almere City FC 2.08 | Draw 4.17 | Heracles 3.45. Almere City FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.03. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.03 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.74 / 1.29) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Almere City FC as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Almere City FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.03 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Almere City FC 50% | Heracles 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Almere City FC vs Heracles | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Yanmar Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 19 Jan 2025, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Almere City FC 48% | Draw 24% | Heracles 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 60% | xG Almere City FC 1.74 / Heracles 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Almere City FC attack 0.801 / def 1.284 | Heracles attack 0.770 / def 1.276 | league avg home 1.697 / away 1.305 • Poisson stance: Almere City FC (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.74
Almere City FC xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Heracles xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Almere City FC vs Heracles kick off?
Almere City FC vs Heracles kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 19 January 2025 at Yanmar Stadion.
What was the final score in Almere City FC vs Heracles?
Almere City FC 0 - 2 Heracles.
Where is Almere City FC vs Heracles being played?
The match is being played at Yanmar Stadion.
What competition is Almere City FC vs Heracles part of?
Almere City FC vs Heracles is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Almere City FC vs Heracles?
Our statistical model gives Almere City FC a 48% chance of winning, Heracles a 29% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Almere City FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Almere City FC vs Heracles?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Almere City FC and Heracles will score (BTTS).
Will Almere City FC vs Heracles have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Almere City FC and Heracles?
Record (5 meetings): Almere City FC 1W | Draws 3 | Heracles 1W.
What form are Almere City FC and Heracles in?
Almere City FC (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-W-D. Heracles (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.50 | L5 D-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Almere City FC's attack at 0.80x the league average against Heracles's defence at 1.28x — combine the two and it projects 1.74 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Heracles's attack versus Almere City FC's defence, projects 1.29 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Almere City FC Win
48%
2.09
24%
4.25
29%
3.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.74
Almere City FC xG
Total xG
3.03
1.29
Heracles xG
2.09
48%
Home win
4.25
24%
Draw
3.50
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.68
40%
BTTS No
2.48
Clean Sheet
28%
3.63
18%
5.67
Win to Nil
13%
7.58
5%
19.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 6.3 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 10.9 | 7.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 9.4 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 5.5 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Almere City FC vs Heracles?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Almere City FC and Heracles expected to score?
The model projects 1.74 expected goals for Almere City FC and 1.29 for Heracles, a combined total of 3.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Almere City FC vs Heracles?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Almere City FC's recent record stands at 9W 17D 25L from 51 games, a 0.86 PPG return, with L-L-L-W-D in the last five. The sample for Almere City FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Heracles, meanwhile, have gone 12W 12D 27L across 51 games — 0.94 PPG, with D-L-D-L-D in their last five. The sample for Heracles is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Almere City FC on 0.86 PPG, Heracles on 0.94. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Almere City FC have managed 5W 8D 12L from 25 games — 0.92 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Heracles's away record stands at 4W 3D 18L across 25 trips, a 0.60 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Almere City FC are averaging 0.82 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game recently; Heracles are on 1.18 scored and 2.12 conceded.
Last 51 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Almere City FC
Blended
Heracles
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Almere City FC and Heracles in coming into this match?
Almere City FC have gone 9W 17D 25L in their last 51 games (0.86 PPG), while Heracles have gone 12W 12D 27L in their last 51 (0.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Almere City FC at home or Heracles away?
Almere City FC's home record (0.92 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Almere City FC at home: 0.92 PPG; Heracles away: 0.60 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
7 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie all feature in the head-to-head log. The two were last together as recently as 18 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Nov 2023, when Heracles won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Almere City FC's record when hosting Heracles specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
2
Almere City FC
3
Draws
2
Heracles
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Almere City FC and Heracles?
From 7 meetings on record, Almere City FC have won 2, Heracles have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Almere City FC and Heracles last play each other?
They last met on 18 September 2026, when Almere City FC 1-0 Heracles.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Almere City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Heracles are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Almere City FC 48%, Heracles 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 52% for Almere City FC and 68% for Heracles. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Almere City FC have failed to score in 36% of games; Heracles in 52%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Almere City FC home games / Heracles away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Almere City FC play Heracles?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Almere City FC's recent matches and 44% of Heracles's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Almere City FC vs Heracles usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of Almere City FC's matches and 68% of Heracles's.
Do Almere City FC and Heracles tend to score early?
Almere City FC have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Heracles in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Heracles cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Almere City FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Heracles beat Almere City FC 0-2 at Yanmar Stadion, Regular Season - 19, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Almere City FC 1.74 xG and Heracles 1.29 xG, a combined 3.03. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Almere City FC fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Almere City FC attack 0.80 / defence 1.28 against Heracles attack 0.77 / defence 1.28, drawn from 52/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Almere City FC 48% | Draw 24% | Heracles 29%, with Almere City FC to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual Heracles win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Almere City FC 49%, Heracles 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Almere City FC's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 43% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Heracles's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Almere City FC 0.86 PPG, Heracles 0.94 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Heracles win broke the near-deadlock. Almere City FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Heracles (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.84 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.36 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.