Almere City FC 3-0 Heerenveen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Almere City FC at 43%, yet in-form Heerenveen provide a compelling counter-argument — this Almere City FC vs Heerenveen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Heerenveen travel to Yanmar Stadion to take on Almere City FC in Eredivisie (matchday 17). The game is scheduled for Saturday 21 December 2024 at 17:45 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Almere City FC stand at 1W 1D 8L — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
At home, Almere City FC have gone 1W 2D 7L in their last 10 home games (0.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Heerenveen have recorded 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L D W W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Heerenveen's form when playing away from home: 1W 1D 8L across their last 10 road games (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Heerenveen — 1.00 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.40 vs 0.40). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 2 H2H matches, Almere City FC have won 0, Heerenveen 1, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 3 May 2024, ended Almere City FC 1–1 Heerenveen — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Almere City FC trading profile (last 50 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 56%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Heerenveen trading profile (last 50 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Almere City FC 46% versus Heerenveen 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Almere City FC 50% | Heerenveen 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Almere City FC 1.60 xG and Heerenveen 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Almere City FC attack 0.695 / defence 1.427 | Heerenveen attack 0.732 / defence 1.357. League average goals — home 1.702 / away 1.294. Almere City FC's attack rating of 0.695 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.60. Heerenveen's defence rating of 1.357 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Almere City FC's projected output up. Heerenveen's attack rating of 0.732 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.35. Almere City FC's defence rating of 1.427 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Heerenveen's projected output up. Data: built from Almere City FC's last 50 games and Heerenveen's last 50.
Result probabilities: Almere City FC 43% | Draw 24% | Heerenveen 32%. Fair-value odds: Almere City FC 2.30 | Draw 4.12 | Heerenveen 3.10. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS Yes probability 59% | Total xG 2.96. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.96 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 59% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Almere City FC as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Heerenveen (1.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Almere City FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.96 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Almere City FC's last 10 home games and Heerenveen's last 10 away games) averaging 3.3 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Almere City FC 60% (last 10 home games) | Heerenveen 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Almere City FC vs Heerenveen | Competition: Eredivisie, matchday 17 | Venue: Yanmar Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 21 December 2024 at 17:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Almere City FC 43% | Draw 24% | Heerenveen 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% (Under 43%) | BTTS Yes 59% (No 41%) | xG Almere City FC 1.60 / Heerenveen 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Almere City FC attack 0.695 / def 1.427 | Heerenveen attack 0.732 / def 1.357 | league avg home 1.702 / away 1.294 • Poisson stance: Almere City FC (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.60
Almere City FC xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Heerenveen xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Almere City FC vs Heerenveen FAQs
What time does Almere City FC vs Heerenveen kick off?
Almere City FC vs Heerenveen kicked off at 17:45 UK time on Saturday 21 December 2024 at Yanmar Stadion.
What was the final score in Almere City FC vs Heerenveen?
Almere City FC 3 - 0 Heerenveen.
Where is Almere City FC vs Heerenveen being played?
The match is being played at Yanmar Stadion.
What competition is Almere City FC vs Heerenveen part of?
Almere City FC vs Heerenveen is a Eredivisie fixture (matchday 17) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Almere City FC vs Heerenveen?
Our statistical model gives Almere City FC a 43% chance of winning, Heerenveen a 32% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Almere City FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Almere City FC vs Heerenveen?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Almere City FC and Heerenveen will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Almere City FC vs Heerenveen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Almere City FC's attacking strength (0.69x league average) is weighed against Heerenveen's defensive record (1.36x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.60. The same calculation in reverse, Heerenveen's attack versus Almere City FC's defence, projects 1.35 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Almere City FC's last 50 games and Heerenveen's last 50 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Almere City FC Win
43%
2.30
24%
4.12
32%
3.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 0
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.60
Almere City FC xG
Total xG
2.96
1.35
Heerenveen xG
2.30
43%
Home win
4.12
24%
Draw
3.10
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.45
Clean Sheet
26%
3.86
20%
4.97
Win to Nil
11%
8.89
6%
15.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 7.0 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 11.3 | 7.6 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 9.1 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.8 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Almere City FC vs Heerenveen Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Almere City FC vs Heerenveen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Almere City FC and Heerenveen expected to score?
The model projects 1.60 expected goals for Almere City FC and 1.35 for Heerenveen, a combined total of 2.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Almere City FC vs Heerenveen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Almere City FC's recent record stands at 8W 16D 26L from 50 games, a 0.80 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-L in the last five.
Heerenveen, meanwhile, have gone 16W 10D 24L across 50 games — 1.16 PPG, with W-L-D-W-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Almere City FC on 0.80 PPG, Heerenveen on 1.16. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Almere City FC have managed 4W 8D 13L from their last 25 home games — 0.80 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Heerenveen's away record stands at 5W 4D 16L across their last 25 away games, a 0.76 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Almere City FC are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.92 conceded per game recently; Heerenveen are on 1.40 scored and 1.96 conceded.
Last 50 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Almere City FC
Blended
Heerenveen
Blended
Almere City FC (Home) vs Heerenveen (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Almere City FC
Blended
Heerenveen
Blended
❓ Almere City FC vs Heerenveen Form FAQs
What form are Almere City FC and Heerenveen in coming into this match?
Almere City FC have gone 8W 16D 26L in their last 50 games (0.80 PPG), while Heerenveen have gone 16W 10D 24L in their last 50 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Almere City FC at home or Heerenveen away?
Almere City FC's home record (0.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Almere City FC at home: 0.80 PPG; Heerenveen away: 0.76 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 4 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from December 2023. All of them came in Eredivisie. The most recent in our data was on 19 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 1 Dec 2023, when Heerenveen won Heerenveen 3-0 Almere City FC.
Almere City FC's record when hosting Heerenveen specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Almere City FC
1
Draws
2
Heerenveen
Recent Meetings
❓ Almere City FC vs Heerenveen H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Almere City FC and Heerenveen?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Almere City FC have won 1, Heerenveen have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Almere City FC and Heerenveen last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 19 April 2025: Heerenveen 2-1 Almere City FC.
Who has won more matches between Almere City FC and Heerenveen?
Heerenveen have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Almere City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Heerenveen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Almere City FC 52%, Heerenveen 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Almere City FC) and 64% (Heerenveen). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Almere City FC have failed to score in 36% of games; Heerenveen in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Almere City FC home games / Heerenveen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Almere City FC vs Heerenveen Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Almere City FC and Heerenveen matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Almere City FC's recent matches and 48% of Heerenveen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Almere City FC and Heerenveen matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of Almere City FC's matches and 64% of Heerenveen's.
Do Almere City FC and Heerenveen matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 60% of Almere City FC's recent matches and 72% of Heerenveen's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Almere City FC run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Heerenveen.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Almere City FC beat Heerenveen 3-0 at Yanmar Stadion, Regular Season - 17, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Almere City FC 1.60 xG and Heerenveen 1.35 xG, a combined 2.96. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Almere City FC beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Heerenveen landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Almere City FC attack 0.69 / defence 1.43 against Heerenveen attack 0.73 / defence 1.36, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Almere City FC 43% | Draw 24% | Heerenveen 32%, with Almere City FC to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Almere City FC 50%, Heerenveen 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Almere City FC's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not.
Heerenveen's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Almere City FC 0.80 PPG, Heerenveen 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Almere City FC win broke the near-deadlock. Almere City FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.92 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.08 average — tighter than their form line. Heerenveen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.08 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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