Almere City FC 2-0 Emmen – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Almere City FC at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Almere City FC vs Emmen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eredivisie clash, Relegation Round as Almere City FC welcome Emmen to Yanmar Stadion. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 6 June 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eredivisie games this season, Almere City FC have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L L W D D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Almere City FC have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Almere City FC have posted 4W 3D 3L at Yanmar Stadion — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Yanmar Stadion. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Emmen stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Emmen's away record: 3W 1D 6L from 10 road trips in Eredivisie this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Almere City FC 1.10 PPG, Emmen 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Almere City FC, 1 for Emmen and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 2 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.5 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 11 Feb 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Almere City FC in-play and half-time data (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Emmen in-play and half-time data (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Almere City FC 60% versus Emmen 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Almere City FC 64% | Emmen 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Almere City FC 2.08 xG and Emmen 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Almere City FC attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Emmen attack 0.945 / defence 1.444. League average goals — home 1.699 / away 1.314. Emmen bring a strong defensive rating of 1.444 — this is suppressing Almere City FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 0 Almere City FC games / 34 Emmen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Almere City FC 51% | Draw 24% | Emmen 25%. Fair-value odds: Almere City FC 1.96 | Draw 4.17 | Emmen 4.00. Almere City FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.51. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.51 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (2.08 / 1.43) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Almere City FC are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Almere City FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.51 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 68% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 68% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Almere City FC 30% | Emmen 90% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Almere City FC vs Emmen | Competition: Eredivisie, Relegation Round | Venue: Yanmar Stadion • Kick-off: Tuesday 6 Jun 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Almere City FC 51% | Draw 24% | Emmen 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 68% | xG Almere City FC 2.08 / Emmen 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: Almere City FC attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Emmen attack 0.945 / def 1.444 | league avg home 1.699 / away 1.314 • Poisson stance: Almere City FC (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.08
Almere City FC xG
Expected Goals
1.43
Emmen xG
68%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Almere City FC vs Emmen kick off?
Almere City FC vs Emmen kicked off at 19:00 on Tuesday 6 June 2023 at Yanmar Stadion.
What was the final score in Almere City FC vs Emmen?
Almere City FC 2 - 0 Emmen.
Where is Almere City FC vs Emmen being played?
The match is being played at Yanmar Stadion.
What competition is Almere City FC vs Emmen part of?
Almere City FC vs Emmen is a Relegation Round fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Almere City FC vs Emmen?
Our statistical model gives Almere City FC a 51% chance of winning, Emmen a 25% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Almere City FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Almere City FC vs Emmen?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Almere City FC and Emmen will score (BTTS).
Will Almere City FC vs Emmen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Almere City FC and Emmen?
Record (2 meetings): Almere City FC 0W | Draws 1 | Emmen 1W.
What form are Almere City FC and Emmen in?
Almere City FC (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-W-D-D. Emmen (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Almere City FC's attack rating (0.85) and Emmen's defence rating (1.44), the model arrives at 2.08 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Emmen's attack versus Almere City FC's defence, projects 1.43 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 0/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 2-2 (6.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Almere City FC Win
51%
1.94
24%
4.24
25%
4.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.9%
Draw
2 – 2
6.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.08
Almere City FC xG
Total xG
3.51
1.43
Emmen xG
1.94
51%
Home win
4.24
24%
Draw
4.00
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.47
32%
BTTS No
3.11
Clean Sheet
24%
4.17
12%
8.04
Win to Nil
12%
8.11
3%
32.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0 | 4.3 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 8.9 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 9.3 | 6.6 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 6.4 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 3.4 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Almere City FC vs Emmen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.0%.
How many goals are Almere City FC and Emmen expected to score?
The model projects 2.08 expected goals for Almere City FC and 1.43 for Emmen, a combined total of 3.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Almere City FC vs Emmen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 42 outings, Almere City FC have picked up 1.10 PPG on a 12W 10D 20L record — L-L-W-D-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Almere City FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Emmen's form line: 12W 11D 19L from 42 games, 1.12 PPG, last five L-L-L-W-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Almere City FC on 1.10 PPG, Emmen on 1.12. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Almere City FC have posted 1.10 PPG from 21 outings (6W 5D 10L).
On the road, Emmen have gone 5W 2D 14L from 21 away games — 0.81 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Almere City FC are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 1.74 conceded per game recently; Emmen are on 1.12 scored and 1.62 conceded.
Last 42 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Almere City FC
Early Season
Emmen
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Almere City FC and Emmen in coming into this match?
Almere City FC have gone 12W 10D 20L in their last 42 games (1.10 PPG), while Emmen have gone 12W 11D 19L in their last 42 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Almere City FC at home or Emmen away?
Almere City FC's home record (1.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Almere City FC at home: 1.10 PPG; Emmen away: 0.81 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Almere City FC and Emmen runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 20 December 2025, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Almere City FC have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Nov 2021, when Emmen won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Almere City FC's record when hosting Emmen specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Almere City FC
1
Draws
1
Emmen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Almere City FC and Emmen?
From 6 meetings on record, Almere City FC have won 4, Emmen have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Almere City FC and Emmen last play each other?
They last met on 20 December 2025, when Almere City FC 4-2 Emmen.
Who has won more matches between Almere City FC and Emmen?
Almere City FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Almere City FC see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches.
Emmen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Almere City FC 48%, Emmen 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Almere City FC and 62% for Emmen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Almere City FC keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Almere City FC have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Almere City FC home games / Emmen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Almere City FC play Emmen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 48% of Almere City FC's games and 67% of Emmen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Almere City FC vs Emmen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Almere City FC's matches and 62% of Emmen's.
Do Almere City FC and Emmen tend to score early?
Almere City FC have had a goal before half-time in 52% of their recent matches, Emmen in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Almere City FC cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Emmen.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Almere City FC beat Emmen 2-0 at Yanmar Stadion, Relegation Round, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Almere City FC 2.08 xG and Emmen 1.43 xG, a combined 3.51. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Emmen landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Almere City FC attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Emmen attack 0.94 / defence 1.44, drawn from 0/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Almere City FC 51% | Draw 24% | Emmen 25%, with Almere City FC to win its most likely call at 51%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Almere City FC 64%, Emmen 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Almere City FC's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Emmen's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Almere City FC 1.10 PPG, Emmen 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Almere City FC win broke the near-deadlock. Almere City FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.62 average — tighter than their form line. Emmen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.