Willem II 1-1 Waalwijk – Result & Analysis

Poisson model favours Willem II (45%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Willem II face Waalwijk.

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Full Analysis

Koning Willem II Stadion plays host to Willem II versus Waalwijk in Eerste Divisie, Quarter-finals. Kick-off: Saturday 9 May 2026 at 15:30 UTC.

Current Form

Willem II's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 8W 1D 1L from 10 games (2.50 PPG). Last five: W W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.60 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.

Willem II's form when playing at home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 games at Koning Willem II Stadion this term (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.90 lags behind their overall 2.50 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Koning Willem II Stadion this season.

Waalwijk have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: L W D D L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.

When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, Waalwijk have posted 4W 4D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

The points-per-game gap of 1.20 in Willem II's favour (2.50 vs 1.30) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.

Head-to-Head

Across 7 previous meetings, Willem II are the stronger side on paper — 6 victories to 1, with 0 draws in between.

These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 7 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 5 May 2026, ended 1–0 with Willem II winning.

From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Willem II and goals. The home side's 6 wins from 7 meetings, combined with an average of 3.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.

Trading Data

Willem II goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (75 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).

Waalwijk goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (75 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 69% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Willem II 57% and Waalwijk 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Willem II 53% | Waalwijk 67%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Willem II 1.55 xG and Waalwijk 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Willem II attack 0.838 / defence 0.730 | Waalwijk attack 1.163 / defence 1.125. League average goals — home 1.644 / away 1.421. Willem II's defence rating of 0.730 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 38 Willem II games / 38 Waalwijk games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Willem II 45% | Draw 25% | Waalwijk 30%. Fair-value odds: Willem II 2.22 | Draw 4.00 | Waalwijk 3.33. Willem II hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Willem II at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Willem II if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.76 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.

Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Willem II 40% | Waalwijk 80% BTTS from recent games.

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