Willem II 1-0 Roda – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Roda at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Willem II vs Roda fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Willem II host Roda at Koning Willem II Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 6 January 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Willem II have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: L D D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Willem II, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Willem II have posted 5W 2D 3L at Koning Willem II Stadion — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Willem II are significantly better at Koning Willem II Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Roda — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L L W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.80. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Roda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Roda's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Willem II at 1.20 PPG versus Roda's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Trading Patterns
Willem II in-play and half-time data (52 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Roda in-play and half-time data (52 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Willem II 52% versus Roda 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Willem II 56% | Roda 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Willem II 1.17 xG and Roda 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Willem II attack 0.741 / defence 1.073 | Roda attack 0.909 / defence 0.981. League average goals — home 1.611 / away 1.355. Willem II's attack strength of 0.741 is below the league average — the 1.17 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 18 Willem II games / 55 Roda games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Willem II 33% | Draw 27% | Roda 40%. Fair-value odds: Willem II 3.03 | Draw 3.70 | Roda 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Roda as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Roda offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.49 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Willem II 60% | Roda 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Willem II vs Roda | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Koning Willem II Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 6 Jan 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Willem II 33% | Draw 27% | Roda 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 51% | xG Willem II 1.17 / Roda 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Willem II attack 0.741 / def 1.073 | Roda attack 0.909 / def 0.981 | league avg home 1.611 / away 1.355 • Poisson stance: Roda (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Willem II xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Roda xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Willem II vs Roda kick off?
Willem II vs Roda kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 6 January 2023 at Koning Willem II Stadion.
What was the final score in Willem II vs Roda?
Willem II 1 - 0 Roda.
Where is Willem II vs Roda being played?
The match is being played at Koning Willem II Stadion.
What competition is Willem II vs Roda part of?
Willem II vs Roda is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Willem II vs Roda?
Our statistical model gives Willem II a 33% chance of winning, Roda a 40% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Roda the favourite.
Will both teams score in Willem II vs Roda?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Willem II and Roda will score (BTTS).
Will Willem II vs Roda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Willem II and Roda?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Willem II and Roda in?
Willem II (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-D-L-W. Roda (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Willem II's attack rating (0.74) and Roda's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 1.17 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Roda's attack versus Willem II's defence, projects 1.32 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 18/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.9%), 0-1 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Roda Win
33%
3.04
27%
3.71
40%
2.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Willem II xG
Total xG
2.49
1.32
Roda xG
3.04
33%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
2.49
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.98
49%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
27%
3.75
31%
3.23
Win to Nil
9%
11.38
12%
8.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 10.9 | 7.2 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.8 | 8.5 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 7.5 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.9 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Willem II vs Roda?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Willem II and Roda expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Willem II and 1.32 for Roda, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Willem II vs Roda?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Willem II's recent record stands at 16W 12D 24L from 52 games, a 1.15 PPG return, with L-D-D-L-W in the last five. The sample for Willem II is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Roda, meanwhile, have gone 23W 15D 14L across 52 games — 1.62 PPG, with W-L-L-W-L in their last five. The sample for Roda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Roda by 0.47 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Willem II heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Willem II have managed 10W 5D 10L from 25 games — 1.40 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Roda's away record stands at 9W 8D 8L across 25 trips, a 1.40 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Willem II are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Roda are on 1.83 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Last 52 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Willem II
Blended
Roda
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Willem II and Roda in coming into this match?
Willem II have gone 16W 12D 24L in their last 52 games (1.15 PPG), while Roda have gone 23W 15D 14L in their last 52 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Willem II at home or Roda away?
Willem II's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Willem II at home: 1.40 PPG; Roda away: 1.40 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to January 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 6 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Willem II's record when hosting Roda specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Willem II
1
Draws
2
Roda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Willem II and Roda?
From 6 meetings on record, Willem II have won 3, Roda have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Willem II and Roda last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2026, when Roda 0-1 Willem II.
Who has won more matches between Willem II and Roda?
Willem II have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Willem II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Roda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Willem II 48%, Roda 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Willem II) and 56% (Roda).
On the defensive side: Willem II have failed to score in 28% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Willem II home games / Roda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Willem II play Roda?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Willem II's recent matches and 56% of Roda's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Willem II vs Roda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Willem II's recent games and 56% of Roda's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Willem II and Roda tend to score early?
Willem II have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Roda in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Willem II defy the odds to beat Roda 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Willem II beat Roda 1-0 at Koning Willem II Stadion, Regular Season - 19, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Willem II 1.17 xG and Roda 1.32 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Roda landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Willem II attack 0.74 / defence 1.07 against Roda attack 0.91 / defence 0.98, drawn from 18/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Willem II 33% | Draw 27% | Roda 40%, with Roda to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Willem II win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Willem II 56%, Roda 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Willem II's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Roda's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Roda arrived the stronger side — 1.62 PPG against 1.15. Form was overturned, with Willem II winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Willem II (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.16 average — tighter than their form line. Roda (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.60 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.