Willem II 2-0 MVV – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Willem II at 65% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Willem II vs MVV encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 30 sees MVV travel to Koning Willem II Stadion to take on Willem II. The game is scheduled for Sunday 26 March 2023, 13:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Willem II — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: D W D L W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Willem II at Koning Willem II Stadion this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, MVV have recorded 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W L L W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 2.40. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
MVV's away record: 2W 1D 7L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Willem II are in the better shape of the two on current Eerste Divisie data — 0.70 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 1.00). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Willem II, 1 for MVV and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 5.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 30 Sep 2022, ended 2–3 with MVV winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Willem II in-play tendencies (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
MVV in-play tendencies (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Willem II 54% versus MVV 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Willem II 57% | MVV 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Willem II 2.62 xG and MVV 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Willem II attack 1.015 / defence 0.978 | MVV attack 1.041 / defence 1.482. League average goals — home 1.739 / away 1.331. MVV bring a strong defensive rating of 1.482 — this is suppressing Willem II's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 29 Willem II games / 67 MVV games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Willem II 65% | Draw 17% | MVV 18%. Fair-value odds: Willem II 1.54 | Draw 5.88 | MVV 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Willem II (65%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 76% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.97. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 76% — a total xG of 3.97 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (2.62 / 1.35) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Willem II are the pick at 65% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.97 combined xG gives a 76% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 69% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Willem II 70% | MVV 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Willem II vs MVV | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Koning Willem II Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Mar 2023, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Willem II 65% | Draw 17% | MVV 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 76% | BTTS 69% | xG Willem II 2.62 / MVV 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Willem II attack 1.015 / def 0.978 | MVV attack 1.041 / def 1.482 | league avg home 1.739 / away 1.331 • Poisson stance: Willem II (65%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.62
Willem II xG
Expected Goals
1.35
MVV xG
69%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
76%
Over 2.5
56%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Willem II vs MVV kick off?
Willem II vs MVV kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 26 March 2023 at Koning Willem II Stadion.
What was the final score in Willem II vs MVV?
Willem II 2 - 0 MVV.
Where is Willem II vs MVV being played?
The match is being played at Koning Willem II Stadion.
What competition is Willem II vs MVV part of?
Willem II vs MVV is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Willem II vs MVV?
Our statistical model gives Willem II a 65% chance of winning, MVV a 18% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making Willem II the favourite.
Will both teams score in Willem II vs MVV?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both Willem II and MVV will score (BTTS).
Will Willem II vs MVV have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 76%.
What is the head-to-head record between Willem II and MVV?
Record (1 meetings): Willem II 0W | Draws 0 | MVV 1W.
What form are Willem II and MVV in?
Willem II (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-D-L-W. MVV (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Willem II's attack at 1.01x the league average against MVV's defence at 1.48x — combine the two and it projects 2.62 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, MVV's attack versus Willem II's defence, projects 1.35 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 29/67 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 8.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 3-1 (7.6%), 1-1 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Willem II Win
65%
1.55
17%
5.74
18%
5.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
7.6%
Home win
1 – 1
6.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.62
Willem II xG
Total xG
3.97
1.35
MVV xG
1.55
65%
Home win
5.74
17%
Draw
5.53
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
91%
Over 1.5
1.10
9%
Under 1.5
11.11
76%
Over 2.5
1.32
24%
Under 2.5
4.17
56%
Over 3.5
1.79
44%
Under 3.5
2.27
37%
Over 4.5
2.70
63%
Under 4.5
1.59
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.45
31%
BTTS No
3.20
Clean Sheet
26%
3.87
7%
13.68
Win to Nil
17%
6.00
1%
75.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.9 | 2.6 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 4.9 | 6.7 | 4.5 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 8.7 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 7.6 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3.7 | 5.0 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.9 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Willem II vs MVV?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.7%.
How many goals are Willem II and MVV expected to score?
The model projects 2.62 expected goals for Willem II and 1.35 for MVV, a combined total of 3.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Willem II vs MVV?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 65%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 63 outings, Willem II have picked up 1.27 PPG on a 22W 14D 27L record — D-W-D-L-W across the most recent five.
MVV's form line: 23W 9D 31L from 63 games, 1.24 PPG, last five L-W-L-L-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Willem II on 1.27 PPG, MVV on 1.24. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Willem II have posted 1.61 PPG from 31 outings (15W 5D 11L).
On the road, MVV have gone 9W 3D 19L from 31 away games — 0.97 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Willem II come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Willem II are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; MVV are on 1.44 scored and 1.86 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: MVV in 62%.
Last 63 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Willem II
Current Season
MVV
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Willem II and MVV in coming into this match?
Willem II have gone 22W 14D 27L in their last 63 games (1.27 PPG), while MVV have gone 23W 9D 31L in their last 63 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Willem II at home or MVV away?
Willem II's home record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Willem II at home: 1.61 PPG; MVV away: 0.97 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Willem II and MVV runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 22 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Mar 2026, when Willem II won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Willem II's record when hosting MVV specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Willem II
2
Draws
1
MVV
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Willem II and MVV?
From 6 meetings on record, Willem II have won 3, MVV have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Willem II and MVV last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2026, when MVV 0-5 Willem II.
Who has won more matches between Willem II and MVV?
Willem II have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Willem II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
MVV are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Willem II 48%, MVV 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 52% for Willem II and 74% for MVV. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 19% and 45% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Willem II keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Willem II home games / MVV away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Willem II play MVV?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 48% of Willem II's games and 64% of MVV's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Willem II vs MVV usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of Willem II's matches and 74% of MVV's.
Do Willem II and MVV tend to score early?
Willem II have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, MVV in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Willem II cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over MVV.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Willem II beat MVV 2-0 at Koning Willem II Stadion, Regular Season - 30, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Willem II 2.62 xG and MVV 1.35 xG, a combined 3.97. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. MVV landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Willem II attack 1.01 / defence 0.98 against MVV attack 1.04 / defence 1.48, drawn from 29/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Willem II 65% | Draw 17% | MVV 18%, with Willem II to win its most likely call at 65%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 76%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 56% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Willem II 57%, MVV 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Willem II's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
MVV's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Willem II 1.27 PPG, MVV 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Willem II win broke the near-deadlock. Willem II (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.10 average — tighter than their form line. MVV (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.26 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.