Willem II 3-0 FC Eindhoven – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Willem II at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this Willem II vs FC Eindhoven fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 21 as Willem II welcome FC Eindhoven to Koning Willem II Stadion. Kick-off is set for Monday 6 February 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Willem II have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: W W L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Willem II, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Willem II's home record at Koning Willem II Stadion: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
FC Eindhoven — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L D W W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.60. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for FC Eindhoven, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Eindhoven's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (Willem II) versus 1.70 (FC Eindhoven). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Willem II, 1 for FC Eindhoven and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 12 Aug 2022, ended 1–2 with FC Eindhoven winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Willem II in-play tendencies (56 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
FC Eindhoven in-play tendencies (56 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Willem II 52% versus FC Eindhoven 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Willem II 55% | FC Eindhoven 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Willem II 1.93 xG and FC Eindhoven 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Willem II attack 1.030 / defence 1.018 | FC Eindhoven attack 0.849 / defence 1.117. League average goals — home 1.676 / away 1.295. Data: 22 Willem II games / 60 FC Eindhoven games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Willem II 56% | Draw 22% | FC Eindhoven 22%. Fair-value odds: Willem II 1.79 | Draw 4.55 | FC Eindhoven 4.55. The model has a clear lean to Willem II (56%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.05. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.05 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Willem II are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.05 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: Willem II 70% | FC Eindhoven 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Willem II vs FC Eindhoven | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Koning Willem II Stadion • Kick-off: Monday 6 Feb 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Willem II 56% | Draw 22% | FC Eindhoven 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 58% | xG Willem II 1.93 / FC Eindhoven 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Willem II attack 1.030 / def 1.018 | FC Eindhoven attack 0.849 / def 1.117 | league avg home 1.676 / away 1.295 • Poisson stance: Willem II (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.93
Willem II xG
Expected Goals
1.12
FC Eindhoven xG
58%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Willem II vs FC Eindhoven kick off?
Willem II vs FC Eindhoven kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 6 February 2023 at Koning Willem II Stadion.
What was the final score in Willem II vs FC Eindhoven?
Willem II 3 - 0 FC Eindhoven.
Where is Willem II vs FC Eindhoven being played?
The match is being played at Koning Willem II Stadion.
What competition is Willem II vs FC Eindhoven part of?
Willem II vs FC Eindhoven is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Willem II vs FC Eindhoven?
Our statistical model gives Willem II a 56% chance of winning, FC Eindhoven a 22% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Willem II the favourite.
Will both teams score in Willem II vs FC Eindhoven?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Willem II and FC Eindhoven will score (BTTS).
Will Willem II vs FC Eindhoven have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Willem II and FC Eindhoven?
Record (1 meetings): Willem II 0W | Draws 0 | FC Eindhoven 1W.
What form are Willem II and FC Eindhoven in?
Willem II (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-L-L-W. FC Eindhoven (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Willem II's attack rating (1.03) and FC Eindhoven's defence rating (1.12), the model arrives at 1.93 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, FC Eindhoven's attack versus Willem II's defence, projects 1.12 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 22/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Willem II Win
56%
1.78
22%
4.54
22%
4.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.93
Willem II xG
Total xG
3.05
1.12
FC Eindhoven xG
1.78
56%
Home win
4.54
22%
Draw
4.60
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.74
42%
BTTS No
2.36
Clean Sheet
33%
3.06
15%
6.88
Win to Nil
18%
5.45
3%
31.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 5.3 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 10.2 | 5.7 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.9 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 6.3 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Willem II vs FC Eindhoven?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Willem II and FC Eindhoven expected to score?
The model projects 1.93 expected goals for Willem II and 1.12 for FC Eindhoven, a combined total of 3.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Willem II vs FC Eindhoven?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Willem II come into this having played 56 games, going 18W 12D 26L for 1.18 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-L-W. The sample for Willem II is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, FC Eindhoven sit at 1.80 PPG from 56 outings (29W 14D 13L), a run that reads L-D-W-W-L across their last five. The sample for FC Eindhoven is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Eindhoven carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.62 PPG clear of Willem II — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Willem II's home form reads 12W 5D 10L across 27 games on their own ground, a 1.52 PPG return.
Away from home, FC Eindhoven have taken 1.63 points per game from 27 outings (12W 8D 7L).
Goals in Recent Form
Willem II are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; FC Eindhoven are on 1.75 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Last 56 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Willem II
Blended
FC Eindhoven
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Willem II and FC Eindhoven in coming into this match?
Willem II have gone 18W 12D 26L in their last 56 games (1.18 PPG), while FC Eindhoven have gone 29W 14D 13L in their last 56 (1.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Willem II at home or FC Eindhoven away?
FC Eindhoven's away record (1.63 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Willem II at home: 1.52 PPG; FC Eindhoven away: 1.63 PPG.
Have Willem II or FC Eindhoven been keeping clean sheets recently?
Willem II have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, FC Eindhoven in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 18 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Feb 2023, when Willem II won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Willem II's record when hosting FC Eindhoven specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Willem II
1
Draws
2
FC Eindhoven
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Willem II and FC Eindhoven?
From 6 meetings on record, Willem II have won 3, FC Eindhoven have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Willem II and FC Eindhoven last play each other?
They last met on 18 January 2026, when FC Eindhoven 0-2 Willem II.
Who has won more matches between Willem II and FC Eindhoven?
Willem II have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Willem II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
FC Eindhoven are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Willem II 48%, FC Eindhoven 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Willem II) and 48% (FC Eindhoven).
On the defensive side: Willem II have failed to score in 26% of games; FC Eindhoven in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Willem II home games / FC Eindhoven away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Willem II play FC Eindhoven?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Willem II's recent matches and 52% of FC Eindhoven's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Willem II vs FC Eindhoven usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Willem II's recent games and 48% of FC Eindhoven's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Willem II and FC Eindhoven tend to score early?
Willem II have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, FC Eindhoven in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Willem II run riot with a 3-0 hammering of FC Eindhoven.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Willem II beat FC Eindhoven 3-0 at Koning Willem II Stadion, Regular Season - 21, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Willem II 1.93 xG and FC Eindhoven 1.12 xG, a combined 3.05. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Willem II beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. FC Eindhoven landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Willem II attack 1.03 / defence 1.02 against FC Eindhoven attack 0.85 / defence 1.12, drawn from 22/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Willem II 56% | Draw 22% | FC Eindhoven 22%, with Willem II to win its most likely call at 56%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Willem II 55%, FC Eindhoven 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Willem II's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
FC Eindhoven's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Eindhoven arrived the stronger side — 1.80 PPG against 1.18. Form was overturned, with Willem II winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Willem II (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.22 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.11 average — tighter than their form line. FC Eindhoven (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.44 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.30 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.