Waalwijk vs Jong AZ – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Waalwijk at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Waalwijk vs Jong AZ fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 18 sees Jong AZ travel to Mandemakers Stadion to take on Waalwijk. The game is scheduled for Friday 4 December 2026, 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Waalwijk have gone 3W 5D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: W L D L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Waalwijk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Waalwijk's form when playing at home: 4W 5D 1L across 10 games at Mandemakers Stadion this term (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Jong AZ stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L D W L D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Jong AZ, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, Jong AZ have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. They are averaging 2.40 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Waalwijk 1.40 PPG, Jong AZ 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Both teams score in over 80% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Waalwijk, 0 for Jong AZ and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 13 Mar 2026, ended 2–1 with Waalwijk winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Waalwijk in-play and half-time data (49 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 84% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Jong AZ in-play and half-time data (49 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 55%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Waalwijk 78% and Jong AZ 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Waalwijk 63% | Jong AZ 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Waalwijk 2.57 xG and Jong AZ 2.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Waalwijk attack 1.129 / defence 1.003 | Jong AZ attack 1.601 / defence 1.227. League average goals — home 1.856 / away 1.461. Jong AZ bring a strong defensive rating of 1.227 — this is suppressing Waalwijk's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Jong AZ have an above-average attack strength of 1.601 — the away xG of 2.35 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 49 Waalwijk games / 49 Jong AZ games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Waalwijk 45% | Draw 18% | Jong AZ 37%. Fair-value odds: Waalwijk 2.22 | Draw 5.56 | Jong AZ 2.70. Waalwijk hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (18%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 87% | BTTS probability 84% | Total xG 4.92. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 87% — a total xG of 4.92 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 84% reflects that both xG figures (2.57 / 2.35) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Waalwijk at 45% — moderate model lean. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 4.92 combined xG gives a 87% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 4.5 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 84% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Waalwijk 80% | Jong AZ 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Waalwijk vs Jong AZ | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Mandemakers Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 4 Dec 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Waalwijk 45% | Draw 18% | Jong AZ 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 87% | BTTS 84% | xG Waalwijk 2.57 / Jong AZ 2.35 • Poisson strength factors: Waalwijk attack 1.129 / def 1.003 | Jong AZ attack 1.601 / def 1.227 | league avg home 1.856 / away 1.461 • Poisson stance: Waalwijk (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.57
Waalwijk xG
Expected Goals
2.35
Jong AZ xG
84%
BTTS
96%
Over 1.5
87%
Over 2.5
72%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Waalwijk vs Jong AZ kick off?
Waalwijk vs Jong AZ is scheduled to kick off at 19:00 on Friday 4 December 2026 at Mandemakers Stadion.
Where is Waalwijk vs Jong AZ being played?
The match is being played at Mandemakers Stadion.
What competition is Waalwijk vs Jong AZ part of?
Waalwijk vs Jong AZ is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Waalwijk vs Jong AZ?
Our statistical model gives Waalwijk a 45% chance of winning, Jong AZ a 37% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Waalwijk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Waalwijk vs Jong AZ?
Our model estimates a 84% probability that both Waalwijk and Jong AZ will score (BTTS).
Will Waalwijk vs Jong AZ have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 87%.
What is the head-to-head record between Waalwijk and Jong AZ?
Record (2 meetings): Waalwijk 2W | Draws 0 | Jong AZ 0W.
What form are Waalwijk and Jong AZ in?
Waalwijk (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-D-L-D. Jong AZ (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Waalwijk's attack rating (1.13) and Jong AZ's defence rating (1.23), the model arrives at 2.57 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Jong AZ's attack versus Waalwijk's defence, projects 2.35 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-2 emerges as the single most likely result, at 6.7%. Close behind: 3-2 (5.7%), 2-1 (5.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 18% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Waalwijk Win
45%
2.24
18%
5.43
37%
2.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 2
6.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
5.7%
Home win
3 – 2
5.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.57
Waalwijk xG
Total xG
4.92
2.35
Jong AZ xG
2.24
45%
Home win
5.43
18%
Draw
2.71
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
96%
Over 1.5
1.04
4%
Under 1.5
25.00
87%
Over 2.5
1.15
13%
Under 2.5
7.69
72%
Over 3.5
1.39
28%
Under 3.5
3.57
55%
Over 4.5
1.82
45%
Under 4.5
2.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
84%
BTTS Yes
1.20
16%
BTTS No
6.07
Clean Sheet
10%
10.45
8%
13.09
Win to Nil
4%
23.37
3%
35.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.7 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 1.9 | 4.4 | 5.2 | 4.0 | 2.4 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 2.4 | 5.7 | 6.7 | 5.2 | 3.1 | 1.4 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 4.9 | 5.7 | 4.5 | 2.6 | 1.2 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 3.1 | 3.7 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 0.8 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Waalwijk vs Jong AZ?
Our Poisson model rates 2-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 6.7%.
How many goals are Waalwijk and Jong AZ expected to score?
The model projects 2.57 expected goals for Waalwijk and 2.35 for Jong AZ, a combined total of 4.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Waalwijk vs Jong AZ?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Waalwijk's recent record stands at 17W 18D 14L from 49 games, a 1.41 PPG return, with W-L-D-L-D in the last five. The sample for Waalwijk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Jong AZ, meanwhile, have gone 16W 6D 27L across 49 games — 1.10 PPG, with L-D-W-L-D in their last five. The sample for Jong AZ is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Waalwijk on 1.41 PPG, Jong AZ on 1.10. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Waalwijk have managed 10W 8D 7L from 25 games — 1.52 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Jong AZ's away record stands at 10W 4D 11L across 25 trips, a 1.36 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Waalwijk are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Jong AZ are on 1.78 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Waalwijk have seen both teams score in 78% of their recent games; Jong AZ in 63%.
Last 49 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Waalwijk
Blended
Jong AZ
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Waalwijk and Jong AZ in coming into this match?
Waalwijk have gone 17W 18D 14L in their last 49 games (1.41 PPG), while Jong AZ have gone 16W 6D 27L in their last 49 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Waalwijk at home or Jong AZ away?
Waalwijk's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Waalwijk at home: 1.52 PPG; Jong AZ away: 1.36 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Waalwijk and Jong AZ runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 13 March 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Waalwijk
0
Draws
0
Jong AZ
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Waalwijk and Jong AZ?
From 2 meetings on record, Waalwijk have won 2, Jong AZ have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Waalwijk and Jong AZ last play each other?
They last met on 13 March 2026, when Waalwijk 2-1 Jong AZ.
Who has won more matches between Waalwijk and Jong AZ?
Waalwijk have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Waalwijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Jong AZ are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Waalwijk at 84%, Jong AZ at 76%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for Waalwijk and 80% for Jong AZ. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 68% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Waalwijk home games / Jong AZ away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Waalwijk play Jong AZ?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 84% of Waalwijk's games and 76% of Jong AZ's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Waalwijk vs Jong AZ usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Waalwijk's matches and 80% of Jong AZ's.
Do Waalwijk and Jong AZ tend to score early?
Waalwijk have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, Jong AZ in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.