Waalwijk vs FC Volendam – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Waalwijk at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Waalwijk vs FC Volendam fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Waalwijk host FC Volendam at Mandemakers Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 18 October 2026 at 10:15 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Waalwijk stand at 2W 7D 1L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D D D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Waalwijk have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Waalwijk's home record at Mandemakers Stadion: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Eerste Divisie appearances (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Waalwijk are significantly better at Mandemakers Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, FC Volendam have recorded 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W L W L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.80. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. FC Volendam have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
FC Volendam away from home this season: 2W 1D 7L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Waalwijk at 1.30 PPG versus FC Volendam's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Waalwijk, 2 for FC Volendam and 0 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 7 Apr 2024, ended 2–3 with FC Volendam winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Waalwijk trading profile (41 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 81% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 49%.
FC Volendam trading profile (41 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Waalwijk 83% and FC Volendam 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Waalwijk 71% | FC Volendam 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Waalwijk 2.16 xG and FC Volendam 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Waalwijk attack 1.028 / defence 1.043 | FC Volendam attack 0.777 / defence 1.188. League average goals — home 1.770 / away 1.698. Data: 42 Waalwijk games / 4 FC Volendam games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Waalwijk 55% | Draw 21% | FC Volendam 24%. Fair-value odds: Waalwijk 1.82 | Draw 4.76 | FC Volendam 4.17. The model has a clear lean to Waalwijk (55%) — a 31pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.54. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.54 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (2.16 / 1.38) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Waalwijk are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.54 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 69% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 66% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Waalwijk 80% | FC Volendam 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Waalwijk vs FC Volendam | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Mandemakers Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Oct 2026, 10:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Waalwijk 55% | Draw 21% | FC Volendam 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 66% | xG Waalwijk 2.16 / FC Volendam 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Waalwijk attack 1.028 / def 1.043 | FC Volendam attack 0.777 / def 1.188 | league avg home 1.770 / away 1.698 • Poisson stance: Waalwijk (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.16
Waalwijk xG
Expected Goals
1.38
FC Volendam xG
66%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Waalwijk vs FC Volendam kick off?
Waalwijk vs FC Volendam is scheduled to kick off at 10:15 on Sunday 18 October 2026 at Mandemakers Stadion.
Where is Waalwijk vs FC Volendam being played?
The match is being played at Mandemakers Stadion.
What competition is Waalwijk vs FC Volendam part of?
Waalwijk vs FC Volendam is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Waalwijk vs FC Volendam?
Our statistical model gives Waalwijk a 55% chance of winning, FC Volendam a 24% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Waalwijk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Waalwijk vs FC Volendam?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Waalwijk and FC Volendam will score (BTTS).
Will Waalwijk vs FC Volendam have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between Waalwijk and FC Volendam?
Record (4 meetings): Waalwijk 2W | Draws 0 | FC Volendam 2W.
What form are Waalwijk and FC Volendam in?
Waalwijk (all comps): 2W-7D-1L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-D-D-W. FC Volendam (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Waalwijk's attacking strength (1.03x league average) is weighed against FC Volendam's defensive record (1.19x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.16. The same calculation in reverse, FC Volendam's attack versus Waalwijk's defence, projects 1.38 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 9.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 2-0 (6.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Waalwijk Win
55%
1.81
21%
4.86
24%
4.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.7%
Draw
2 – 0
6.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.16
Waalwijk xG
Total xG
3.54
1.38
FC Volendam xG
1.81
55%
Home win
4.86
21%
Draw
4.16
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.51
34%
BTTS No
2.95
Clean Sheet
25%
3.96
12%
8.68
Win to Nil
14%
7.16
3%
36.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.9 | 4.0 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 8.7 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 9.3 | 6.4 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 6.7 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 3.6 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Waalwijk vs FC Volendam?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.8%.
How many goals are Waalwijk and FC Volendam expected to score?
The model projects 2.16 expected goals for Waalwijk and 1.38 for FC Volendam, a combined total of 3.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Waalwijk vs FC Volendam?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Waalwijk come into this having played 41 games, going 15W 15D 11L for 1.46 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-D-D-W. It's still early in the season for Waalwijk, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, FC Volendam sit at 1.00 PPG from 41 outings (11W 8D 22L), a run that reads L-W-L-W-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for FC Volendam, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Waalwijk carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.46 PPG clear of FC Volendam — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Waalwijk's home form reads 9W 5D 7L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.52 PPG return.
Away from home, FC Volendam have taken 0.57 points per game from 21 outings (3W 3D 15L). That's a step down from their 1.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of FC Volendam's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Waalwijk come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Waalwijk are averaging 1.88 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; FC Volendam are on 1.27 scored and 1.66 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Waalwijk have seen both teams score in 83% of their recent games; FC Volendam in 61%.
Last 41 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Waalwijk
Early Season
FC Volendam
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Waalwijk and FC Volendam in coming into this match?
Waalwijk have gone 15W 15D 11L in their last 41 games (1.46 PPG), while FC Volendam have gone 11W 8D 22L in their last 41 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Waalwijk at home or FC Volendam away?
Waalwijk's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Waalwijk at home: 1.52 PPG; FC Volendam away: 0.57 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to January 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 April 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 May 2023, when Waalwijk won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Waalwijk's record when hosting FC Volendam specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Waalwijk
0
Draws
2
FC Volendam
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Waalwijk and FC Volendam?
From 4 meetings on record, Waalwijk have won 2, FC Volendam have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Waalwijk and FC Volendam last play each other?
They last met on 7 April 2024, when FC Volendam 3-2 Waalwijk.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Waalwijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
FC Volendam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Waalwijk 81%, FC Volendam 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 76% for Waalwijk and 57% for FC Volendam. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 52% and 24% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Volendam in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Waalwijk home games / FC Volendam away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Waalwijk play FC Volendam?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 81% of Waalwijk's games and 48% of FC Volendam's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Waalwijk vs FC Volendam usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 76% of Waalwijk's matches and 57% of FC Volendam's.
Do Waalwijk and FC Volendam tend to score early?
Waalwijk have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, FC Volendam in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.