Waalwijk 2-0 FC OSS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC OSS at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Waalwijk vs FC OSS fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
FC OSS make the trip to Mandemakers Stadion to face Waalwijk in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 25. The match kicks off on Friday 30 January 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Waalwijk (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W D W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Waalwijk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Waalwijk's home record at Mandemakers Stadion: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
FC OSS's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: D L L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for FC OSS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, FC OSS have posted 3W 5D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.20 PPG for Waalwijk against 1.20 for FC OSS. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Waalwijk register both teams scoring in 90% of relevant games, FC OSS in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Waalwijk lead 0W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 0.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Nov 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Waalwijk goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
FC OSS goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Waalwijk 66% versus FC OSS 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Waalwijk 66% | FC OSS 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Waalwijk 1.27 xG and FC OSS 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Waalwijk attack 0.868 / defence 1.142 | FC OSS attack 0.826 / defence 0.828. League average goals — home 1.773 / away 1.565. Data: 24 Waalwijk games / 61 FC OSS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Waalwijk 32% | Draw 27% | FC OSS 41%. Fair-value odds: Waalwijk 3.12 | Draw 3.70 | FC OSS 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates FC OSS as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC OSS if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.75 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Waalwijk 90% | FC OSS 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Waalwijk vs FC OSS | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Mandemakers Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 30 Jan 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Waalwijk 32% | Draw 27% | FC OSS 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 57% | xG Waalwijk 1.27 / FC OSS 1.48 • Poisson strength factors: Waalwijk attack 0.868 / def 1.142 | FC OSS attack 0.826 / def 0.828 | league avg home 1.773 / away 1.565 • Poisson stance: FC OSS (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Waalwijk xG
Expected Goals
1.48
FC OSS xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Waalwijk vs FC OSS kick off?
Waalwijk vs FC OSS kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 30 January 2026 at Mandemakers Stadion.
What was the final score in Waalwijk vs FC OSS?
Waalwijk 2 - 0 FC OSS.
Where is Waalwijk vs FC OSS being played?
The match is being played at Mandemakers Stadion.
What competition is Waalwijk vs FC OSS part of?
Waalwijk vs FC OSS is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Waalwijk vs FC OSS?
Our statistical model gives Waalwijk a 32% chance of winning, FC OSS a 41% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making FC OSS the favourite.
Will both teams score in Waalwijk vs FC OSS?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Waalwijk and FC OSS will score (BTTS).
Will Waalwijk vs FC OSS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Waalwijk and FC OSS?
Record (1 meetings): Waalwijk 0W | Draws 1 | FC OSS 0W.
What form are Waalwijk and FC OSS in?
Waalwijk (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-D-W-D. FC OSS (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Waalwijk's attack rating (0.87) and FC OSS's defence rating (0.83), the model arrives at 1.27 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — FC OSS's attack (0.83x) against Waalwijk's defence (1.14x) — and the away total comes out at 1.48.
These ratings are built from 24/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 0-0 (7.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC OSS Win
32%
3.15
27%
3.66
41%
2.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Waalwijk xG
Total xG
2.75
1.48
FC OSS xG
3.15
32%
Home win
3.66
27%
Draw
2.44
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.77
43%
BTTS No
2.30
Clean Sheet
23%
4.38
28%
3.58
Win to Nil
7%
13.83
11%
8.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 9.4 | 7.0 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 12.0 | 8.9 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 7.7 | 5.7 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.2 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Waalwijk vs FC OSS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Waalwijk and FC OSS expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Waalwijk and 1.48 for FC OSS, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Waalwijk vs FC OSS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Waalwijk come into this having played 58 games, going 15W 14D 29L for 1.02 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-W-D. The sample for Waalwijk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, FC OSS sit at 0.98 PPG from 58 outings (12W 21D 25L), a run that reads D-L-L-W-W across their last five. The sample for FC OSS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.02 PPG for Waalwijk against 0.98 for FC OSS. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Waalwijk's home form reads 9W 7D 13L across 29 games on their own ground, a 1.17 PPG return.
Away from home, FC OSS have taken 0.79 points per game from 29 outings (3W 14D 12L).
Attack vs Defence
Waalwijk are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.93 conceded per game recently; FC OSS are on 1.02 scored and 1.69 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Waalwijk have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games.
Last 58 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Waalwijk
Blended
FC OSS
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Waalwijk and FC OSS in coming into this match?
Waalwijk have gone 15W 14D 29L in their last 58 games (1.02 PPG), while FC OSS have gone 12W 21D 25L in their last 58 (0.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Waalwijk at home or FC OSS away?
Waalwijk's home record (1.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Waalwijk at home: 1.17 PPG; FC OSS away: 0.79 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2025 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 30 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Waalwijk
1
Draws
0
FC OSS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Waalwijk and FC OSS?
From 2 meetings on record, Waalwijk have won 1, FC OSS have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Waalwijk and FC OSS last play each other?
They last met on 30 January 2026, when Waalwijk 2-0 FC OSS.
Who has won more matches between Waalwijk and FC OSS?
Waalwijk have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Waalwijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
FC OSS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Waalwijk 62%, FC OSS 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 66% (Waalwijk) and 38% (FC OSS).
On the defensive side: FC OSS in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Waalwijk home games / FC OSS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Waalwijk play FC OSS?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Waalwijk's games and 48% of FC OSS's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Waalwijk vs FC OSS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 66% of Waalwijk's recent games and 38% of FC OSS's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Waalwijk and FC OSS tend to score early?
Waalwijk have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, FC OSS in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Waalwijk cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over FC OSS.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Waalwijk beat FC OSS 2-0 at Mandemakers Stadion, Regular Season - 25, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Waalwijk 1.27 xG and FC OSS 1.48 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. FC OSS landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Waalwijk attack 0.87 / defence 1.14 against FC OSS attack 0.83 / defence 0.83, drawn from 24/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Waalwijk 32% | Draw 27% | FC OSS 41%, with FC OSS to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Waalwijk win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Waalwijk 66%, FC OSS 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Waalwijk's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.
FC OSS's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Waalwijk 1.02 PPG, FC OSS 0.98 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Waalwijk win broke the near-deadlock. Waalwijk (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.76 average — tighter than their form line. FC OSS (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.83 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.