VVV Venlo 1-3 Willem II – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Willem II at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this VVV Venlo vs Willem II encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 15 sees Willem II travel to Covebo Stadion - De Koel - to take on VVV Venlo. The game is scheduled for Friday 17 November 2023, 20:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, VVV Venlo have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: D W D D W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for VVV Venlo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Covebo Stadion - De Koel -, VVV Venlo have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Willem II — All Games: 8W 0D 2L from 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Willem II, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Willem II away from home this season: 2W 5D 3L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 2.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Willem II's 2.40 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of VVV Venlo's 1.60 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for VVV Venlo, 1 for Willem II and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 27 May 2023, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
VVV Venlo trading profile (54 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Willem II trading profile (54 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — VVV Venlo 68% and Willem II 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (VVV Venlo 57% | Willem II 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects VVV Venlo 1.01 xG and Willem II 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: VVV Venlo attack 1.036 / defence 1.160 | Willem II attack 0.799 / defence 0.624. League average goals — home 1.564 / away 1.354. Willem II's defence strength of 0.624 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 52 VVV Venlo games / 52 Willem II games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: VVV Venlo 28% | Draw 31% | Willem II 40%. Fair-value odds: VVV Venlo 3.57 | Draw 3.23 | Willem II 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Willem II as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Willem II offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.26 combined xG gives a 39% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: VVV Venlo 80% | Willem II 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: VVV Venlo vs Willem II | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Covebo Stadion - De Koel - • Kick-off: Friday 17 Nov 2023, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: VVV Venlo 28% | Draw 31% | Willem II 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 47% | xG VVV Venlo 1.01 / Willem II 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: VVV Venlo attack 1.036 / def 1.160 | Willem II attack 0.799 / def 0.624 | league avg home 1.564 / away 1.354 • Poisson stance: Willem II (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
VVV Venlo xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Willem II xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does VVV Venlo vs Willem II kick off?
VVV Venlo vs Willem II kicked off at 20:00 on Friday 17 November 2023 at Covebo Stadion - De Koel -.
What was the final score in VVV Venlo vs Willem II?
VVV Venlo 1 - 3 Willem II.
Where is VVV Venlo vs Willem II being played?
The match is being played at Covebo Stadion - De Koel -.
What competition is VVV Venlo vs Willem II part of?
VVV Venlo vs Willem II is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win VVV Venlo vs Willem II?
Our statistical model gives VVV Venlo a 28% chance of winning, Willem II a 40% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Willem II the favourite.
Will both teams score in VVV Venlo vs Willem II?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both VVV Venlo and Willem II will score (BTTS).
Will VVV Venlo vs Willem II have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between VVV Venlo and Willem II?
Record (4 meetings): VVV Venlo 1W | Draws 2 | Willem II 1W.
What form are VVV Venlo and Willem II in?
VVV Venlo (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-D-D-W. Willem II (all comps): 8W-0D-2L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates VVV Venlo's attack at 1.04x the league average against Willem II's defence at 0.62x — combine the two and it projects 1.01 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Willem II's attack versus VVV Venlo's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.1%), 0-1 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Willem II Win
28%
3.54
31%
3.19
40%
2.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.0%
Away win
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
VVV Venlo xG
Total xG
2.26
1.25
Willem II xG
3.54
28%
Home win
3.19
31%
Draw
2.48
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
29%
3.50
36%
2.75
Win to Nil
8%
12.39
15%
6.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.4 | 13.0 | 8.2 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 13.2 | 8.3 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 6.7 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for VVV Venlo vs Willem II?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are VVV Venlo and Willem II expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for VVV Venlo and 1.25 for Willem II, a combined total of 2.26.
How confident is the prediction model for VVV Venlo vs Willem II?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 54 outings, VVV Venlo have picked up 1.50 PPG on a 21W 18D 15L record — D-W-D-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for VVV Venlo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Willem II's form line: 28W 14D 12L from 54 games, 1.81 PPG, last five W-W-W-L-W. The sample for Willem II is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: VVV Venlo on 1.50 PPG, Willem II on 1.81. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, VVV Venlo have posted 1.42 PPG from 26 outings (9W 10D 7L).
On the road, Willem II have gone 8W 11D 7L from 26 away games — 1.35 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.81 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Willem II's season.
Goals in Recent Form
VVV Venlo are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Willem II are on 1.76 scored and 1.07 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: VVV Venlo have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games; Willem II in 61%.
Last 54 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
VVV Venlo
Blended
Willem II
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are VVV Venlo and Willem II in coming into this match?
VVV Venlo have gone 21W 18D 15L in their last 54 games (1.50 PPG), while Willem II have gone 28W 14D 12L in their last 54 (1.81 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — VVV Venlo at home or Willem II away?
VVV Venlo's home record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — VVV Venlo at home: 1.42 PPG; Willem II away: 1.35 PPG.
Have VVV Venlo or Willem II been keeping clean sheets recently?
VVV Venlo have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Willem II in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2022. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 23 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Willem II have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
VVV Venlo's record when hosting Willem II specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
VVV Venlo
2
Draws
5
Willem II
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between VVV Venlo and Willem II?
From 8 meetings on record, VVV Venlo have won 1, Willem II have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did VVV Venlo and Willem II last play each other?
They last met on 23 January 2026, when Willem II 2-1 VVV Venlo.
Who has won more matches between VVV Venlo and Willem II?
Willem II have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
VVV Venlo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Willem II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — VVV Venlo 69%, Willem II 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (VVV Venlo) and 50% (Willem II).
On the defensive side: Willem II in 31%; Willem II in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = VVV Venlo home games / Willem II away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when VVV Venlo play Willem II?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of VVV Venlo's games and 58% of Willem II's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is VVV Venlo vs Willem II usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of VVV Venlo's recent games and 50% of Willem II's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do VVV Venlo and Willem II tend to score early?
VVV Venlo have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Willem II in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Willem II cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over VVV Venlo.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Willem II beat VVV Venlo 1-3 at Covebo Stadion - De Koel -, Regular Season - 15, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting VVV Venlo 1.01 xG and Willem II 1.25 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Willem II outscored their 1.25 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VVV Venlo attack 1.04 / defence 1.16 against Willem II attack 0.80 / defence 0.62, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it VVV Venlo 28% | Draw 31% | Willem II 40%, with Willem II to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VVV Venlo 57%, Willem II 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
VVV Venlo's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Willem II's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — VVV Venlo 1.50 PPG, Willem II 1.81 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Willem II win broke the near-deadlock. VVV Venlo (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.27 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Willem II (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.42 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.