VVV Venlo 1-3 Jong Ajax – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates VVV Venlo at 39%, yet in-form Jong Ajax provide a compelling counter-argument — this VVV Venlo vs Jong Ajax fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 14 as VVV Venlo welcome Jong Ajax to Covebo Stadion - De Koel -. Kick-off is set for Friday 5 November 2021 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
VVV Venlo — All Games: 4W 0D 6L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for VVV Venlo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Covebo Stadion - De Koel -, VVV Venlo have gone 4W 1D 2L this season (7 games, 1.86 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.86 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — VVV Venlo are significantly better at Covebo Stadion - De Koel - than their overall form suggests.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Jong Ajax have recorded 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Jong Ajax, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jong Ajax away from home this season: 3W 1D 3L from 7 away games — 1.43 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.86 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 86% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. Jong Ajax's 1.90 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of VVV Venlo's 1.20 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Trading Patterns
VVV Venlo in-play and half-time data (13 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Jong Ajax in-play and half-time data (13 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 86% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 62%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — VVV Venlo 54% and Jong Ajax 85% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (VVV Venlo 62% | Jong Ajax 85%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects VVV Venlo 1.55 xG and Jong Ajax 1.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: VVV Venlo attack 0.868 / defence 1.002 | Jong Ajax attack 1.042 / defence 1.379. League average goals — home 1.293 / away 1.447. Jong Ajax bring a strong defensive rating of 1.379 — this is suppressing VVV Venlo's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 13 VVV Venlo games / 13 Jong Ajax games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: VVV Venlo 39% | Draw 24% | Jong Ajax 37%. Fair-value odds: VVV Venlo 2.56 | Draw 4.17 | Jong Ajax 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.06. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.06 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.55 / 1.51) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is VVV Venlo at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Jong Ajax (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on VVV Venlo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.06 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: VVV Venlo 57% | Jong Ajax 86% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: VVV Venlo vs Jong Ajax | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Covebo Stadion - De Koel - • Kick-off: Friday 5 Nov 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: VVV Venlo 39% | Draw 24% | Jong Ajax 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 61% | xG VVV Venlo 1.55 / Jong Ajax 1.51 • Poisson strength factors: VVV Venlo attack 0.868 / def 1.002 | Jong Ajax attack 1.042 / def 1.379 | league avg home 1.293 / away 1.447 • Poisson stance: VVV Venlo (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
VVV Venlo xG
Expected Goals
1.51
Jong Ajax xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does VVV Venlo vs Jong Ajax kick off?
VVV Venlo vs Jong Ajax kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 5 November 2021 at Covebo Stadion - De Koel -.
What was the final score in VVV Venlo vs Jong Ajax?
VVV Venlo 1 - 3 Jong Ajax.
Where is VVV Venlo vs Jong Ajax being played?
The match is being played at Covebo Stadion - De Koel -.
What competition is VVV Venlo vs Jong Ajax part of?
VVV Venlo vs Jong Ajax is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win VVV Venlo vs Jong Ajax?
Our statistical model gives VVV Venlo a 39% chance of winning, Jong Ajax a 37% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making VVV Venlo the favourite.
Will both teams score in VVV Venlo vs Jong Ajax?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both VVV Venlo and Jong Ajax will score (BTTS).
Will VVV Venlo vs Jong Ajax have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between VVV Venlo and Jong Ajax?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are VVV Venlo and Jong Ajax in?
VVV Venlo (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-L-L-L. Jong Ajax (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
VVV Venlo's attacking strength (0.87x league average) is weighed against Jong Ajax's defensive record (1.38x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.55. The same calculation in reverse, Jong Ajax's attack versus VVV Venlo's defence, projects 1.51 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 13/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
VVV Venlo Win
39%
2.58
24%
4.16
37%
2.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
1 – 2
8.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
VVV Venlo xG
Total xG
3.06
1.51
Jong Ajax xG
2.58
39%
Home win
4.16
24%
Draw
2.69
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.59
Clean Sheet
22%
4.53
21%
4.70
Win to Nil
9%
11.68
8%
12.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 7.1 | 5.4 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 11.0 | 8.3 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.5 | 6.4 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 4.4 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for VVV Venlo vs Jong Ajax?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are VVV Venlo and Jong Ajax expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for VVV Venlo and 1.51 for Jong Ajax, a combined total of 3.06.
How confident is the prediction model for VVV Venlo vs Jong Ajax?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
VVV Venlo come into this having played 13 games, going 5W 1D 7L for 1.23 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-L-L. The sample for VVV Venlo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Jong Ajax sit at 1.69 PPG from 13 outings (7W 1D 5L), a run that reads L-W-D-W-W across their last five. The sample for Jong Ajax is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Jong Ajax carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.46 PPG clear of VVV Venlo — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
VVV Venlo's home form reads 4W 1D 2L across 7 games on their own ground, a 1.86 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.23 PPG overall — VVV Venlo are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Jong Ajax have taken 1.43 points per game from 7 outings (3W 1D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, VVV Venlo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
VVV Venlo are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Jong Ajax are on 2.31 scored and 1.77 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jong Ajax in 85%.
Last 13 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
VVV Venlo
Blended
Jong Ajax
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are VVV Venlo and Jong Ajax in coming into this match?
VVV Venlo have gone 5W 1D 7L in their last 13 games (1.23 PPG), while Jong Ajax have gone 7W 1D 5L in their last 13 (1.69 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — VVV Venlo at home or Jong Ajax away?
VVV Venlo's home record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — VVV Venlo at home: 1.86 PPG; Jong Ajax away: 1.43 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between VVV Venlo and Jong Ajax runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 17 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Apr 2022, when Jong Ajax won 6-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
VVV Venlo's record when hosting Jong Ajax specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
VVV Venlo
1
Draws
5
Jong Ajax
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between VVV Venlo and Jong Ajax?
From 10 meetings on record, VVV Venlo have won 4, Jong Ajax have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did VVV Venlo and Jong Ajax last play each other?
They last met on 17 March 2026, when VVV Venlo 0-1 Jong Ajax.
Who has won more matches between VVV Venlo and Jong Ajax?
Jong Ajax have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
VVV Venlo see a goal before the break in 43% of their matches.
Jong Ajax are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — VVV Venlo at 57%, Jong Ajax at 86%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 57% for VVV Venlo and 71% for Jong Ajax. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 14% and 71% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = VVV Venlo home games / Jong Ajax away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when VVV Venlo play Jong Ajax?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of VVV Venlo's games and 86% of Jong Ajax's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is VVV Venlo vs Jong Ajax usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of VVV Venlo's matches and 71% of Jong Ajax's.
Do VVV Venlo and Jong Ajax tend to score early?
VVV Venlo have had a goal before half-time in 43% of their recent matches, Jong Ajax in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Jong Ajax cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over VVV Venlo.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jong Ajax beat VVV Venlo 1-3 at Covebo Stadion - De Koel -, Regular Season - 14, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting VVV Venlo 1.55 xG and Jong Ajax 1.51 xG, a combined 3.06. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Jong Ajax outscored their 1.51 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VVV Venlo attack 0.87 / defence 1.00 against Jong Ajax attack 1.04 / defence 1.38, drawn from 13/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it VVV Venlo 39% | Draw 24% | Jong Ajax 37%, with VVV Venlo to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Jong Ajax win had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 73% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VVV Venlo 62%, Jong Ajax 85%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 69%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
VVV Venlo's trading profile (13 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Jong Ajax's trading profile (13 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 85% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Jong Ajax arrived the stronger side — 1.69 PPG against 1.23. Form held, and they took the win. VVV Venlo (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Jong Ajax (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.86 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.