VVV Venlo 0-1 FC OSS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates VVV Venlo at 59% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this VVV Venlo vs FC OSS encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 26 sees FC OSS travel to Covebo Stadion - De Koel - to take on VVV Venlo. The game is scheduled for Friday 24 February 2023, 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, VVV Venlo stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W D L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for VVV Venlo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
VVV Venlo at Covebo Stadion - De Koel - this season: 3W 5D 2L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.40 lags behind their overall 2.00 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Covebo Stadion - De Koel - this season.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, FC OSS have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for FC OSS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, FC OSS have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
VVV Venlo carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.90 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.00 vs 1.10. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. VVV Venlo register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, FC OSS in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for VVV Venlo, 2 for FC OSS and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.7 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 26 Aug 2022, ended 2–1 with VVV Venlo winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
VVV Venlo in-play tendencies (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
FC OSS in-play tendencies (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — VVV Venlo 59% versus FC OSS 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (VVV Venlo 62% | FC OSS 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects VVV Venlo 1.80 xG and FC OSS 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: VVV Venlo attack 0.844 / defence 0.896 | FC OSS attack 0.818 / defence 1.236. League average goals — home 1.722 / away 1.213. FC OSS bring a strong defensive rating of 1.236 — this is suppressing VVV Venlo's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 63 VVV Venlo games / 63 FC OSS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: VVV Venlo 59% | Draw 23% | FC OSS 18%. Fair-value odds: VVV Venlo 1.69 | Draw 4.35 | FC OSS 5.56. The model has a clear lean to VVV Venlo (59%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is VVV Venlo at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.69 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 50% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 3.7 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. This conflicts with form data: VVV Venlo 70% | FC OSS 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: VVV Venlo vs FC OSS | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Covebo Stadion - De Koel - • Kick-off: Friday 24 Feb 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: VVV Venlo 59% | Draw 23% | FC OSS 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 49% | xG VVV Venlo 1.80 / FC OSS 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: VVV Venlo attack 0.844 / def 0.896 | FC OSS attack 0.818 / def 1.236 | league avg home 1.722 / away 1.213 • Poisson stance: VVV Venlo (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.80
VVV Venlo xG
Expected Goals
0.89
FC OSS xG
49%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does VVV Venlo vs FC OSS kick off?
VVV Venlo vs FC OSS kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 24 February 2023 at Covebo Stadion - De Koel -.
What was the final score in VVV Venlo vs FC OSS?
VVV Venlo 0 - 1 FC OSS.
Where is VVV Venlo vs FC OSS being played?
The match is being played at Covebo Stadion - De Koel -.
What competition is VVV Venlo vs FC OSS part of?
VVV Venlo vs FC OSS is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win VVV Venlo vs FC OSS?
Our statistical model gives VVV Venlo a 59% chance of winning, FC OSS a 18% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making VVV Venlo the favourite.
Will both teams score in VVV Venlo vs FC OSS?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both VVV Venlo and FC OSS will score (BTTS).
Will VVV Venlo vs FC OSS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between VVV Venlo and FC OSS?
Record (3 meetings): VVV Venlo 1W | Draws 0 | FC OSS 2W.
What form are VVV Venlo and FC OSS in?
VVV Venlo (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-L-W-W. FC OSS (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates VVV Venlo's attack at 0.84x the league average against FC OSS's defence at 1.24x — combine the two and it projects 1.80 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, FC OSS's attack versus VVV Venlo's defence, projects 0.89 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 63/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (11.0%), 1-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
VVV Venlo Win
59%
1.70
23%
4.37
18%
5.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.0%
Home win
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.80
VVV Venlo xG
Total xG
2.69
0.89
FC OSS xG
1.70
59%
Home win
4.37
23%
Draw
5.47
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
41%
2.43
17%
6.03
Win to Nil
24%
4.14
3%
33.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.2 | 10.9 | 4.8 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.0 | 9.8 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.6 | 5.9 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.0 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for VVV Venlo vs FC OSS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are VVV Venlo and FC OSS expected to score?
The model projects 1.80 expected goals for VVV Venlo and 0.89 for FC OSS, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for VVV Venlo vs FC OSS?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
VVV Venlo's recent record stands at 26W 12D 25L from 63 games, a 1.43 PPG return, with W-D-L-W-W in the last five. The sample for VVV Venlo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC OSS, meanwhile, have gone 18W 11D 34L across 63 games — 1.03 PPG, with L-L-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for FC OSS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: VVV Venlo on 1.43 PPG, FC OSS on 1.03. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, VVV Venlo have managed 11W 9D 11L from 31 games — 1.35 PPG in front of their own supporters.
FC OSS's away record stands at 7W 5D 19L across 31 trips, a 0.84 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, VVV Venlo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
VVV Venlo are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; FC OSS are on 1.21 scored and 1.70 conceded.
Last 63 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
VVV Venlo
Blended
FC OSS
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are VVV Venlo and FC OSS in coming into this match?
VVV Venlo have gone 26W 12D 25L in their last 63 games (1.43 PPG), while FC OSS have gone 18W 11D 34L in their last 63 (1.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — VVV Venlo at home or FC OSS away?
VVV Venlo's home record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — VVV Venlo at home: 1.35 PPG; FC OSS away: 0.84 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 20 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
VVV Venlo's record when hosting FC OSS specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
VVV Venlo
2
Draws
6
FC OSS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between VVV Venlo and FC OSS?
From 10 meetings on record, VVV Venlo have won 2, FC OSS have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did VVV Venlo and FC OSS last play each other?
They last met on 20 February 2026, when VVV Venlo 1-1 FC OSS.
Who has won more matches between VVV Venlo and FC OSS?
FC OSS have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
VVV Venlo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
FC OSS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — VVV Venlo 61%, FC OSS 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 58% for VVV Venlo and 64% for FC OSS. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: VVV Venlo have failed to score in 26% of games; FC OSS in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = VVV Venlo home games / FC OSS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when VVV Venlo play FC OSS?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of VVV Venlo's games and 55% of FC OSS's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is VVV Venlo vs FC OSS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of VVV Venlo's matches and 64% of FC OSS's.
Do VVV Venlo and FC OSS tend to score early?
VVV Venlo have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, FC OSS in 87% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as FC OSS defy the odds to beat VVV Venlo 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC OSS beat VVV Venlo 0-1 at Covebo Stadion - De Koel -, Regular Season - 26, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting VVV Venlo 1.80 xG and FC OSS 0.89 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. VVV Venlo fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VVV Venlo attack 0.84 / defence 0.90 against FC OSS attack 0.82 / defence 1.24, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it VVV Venlo 59% | Draw 23% | FC OSS 18%, with VVV Venlo to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a FC OSS win, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VVV Venlo 62%, FC OSS 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
VVV Venlo's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
FC OSS's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — VVV Venlo 1.43 PPG, FC OSS 1.03 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC OSS win broke the near-deadlock. VVV Venlo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.32 scoring average — below par going forward. FC OSS (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.94 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.