Vitesse 2-1 Jong Utrecht – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jong Utrecht at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Vitesse vs Jong Utrecht fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Vitesse and Jong Utrecht meet at GelreDome in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 19. This fixture gets under way on Friday 13 December 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Vitesse (all games): 1W 3D 6L across 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this term — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L L W D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Vitesse, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Vitesse at GelreDome this season: 1W 5D 4L from 10 home games — 0.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Jong Utrecht's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 1W 4D 5L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: L L D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Jong Utrecht, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jong Utrecht away from home this season: 0W 6D 4L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.60 PPG for Vitesse against 0.70 for Jong Utrecht. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Vitesse register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, Jong Utrecht in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Vitesse — key trading statistics (52 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
Jong Utrecht — key trading statistics (52 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vitesse 58% versus Jong Utrecht 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vitesse 62% | Jong Utrecht 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vitesse 1.19 xG and Jong Utrecht 1.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vitesse attack 0.747 / defence 1.414 | Jong Utrecht attack 0.812 / defence 1.030. League average goals — home 1.543 / away 1.406. Vitesse's attack strength of 0.747 is below the league average — the 1.19 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 18 Vitesse games / 56 Jong Utrecht games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vitesse 27% | Draw 28% | Jong Utrecht 46%. Fair-value odds: Vitesse 3.70 | Draw 3.57 | Jong Utrecht 2.17. Jong Utrecht hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Jong Utrecht are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Jong Utrecht if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.80 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: Vitesse 80% | Jong Utrecht 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vitesse vs Jong Utrecht | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: GelreDome • Kick-off: Friday 13 Dec 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vitesse 27% | Draw 28% | Jong Utrecht 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 57% | xG Vitesse 1.19 / Jong Utrecht 1.61 • Poisson strength factors: Vitesse attack 0.747 / def 1.414 | Jong Utrecht attack 0.812 / def 1.030 | league avg home 1.543 / away 1.406 • Poisson stance: Jong Utrecht (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Vitesse xG
Expected Goals
1.61
Jong Utrecht xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vitesse vs Jong Utrecht kick off?
Vitesse vs Jong Utrecht kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 13 December 2024 at GelreDome.
What was the final score in Vitesse vs Jong Utrecht?
Vitesse 2 - 1 Jong Utrecht.
Where is Vitesse vs Jong Utrecht being played?
The match is being played at GelreDome.
What competition is Vitesse vs Jong Utrecht part of?
Vitesse vs Jong Utrecht is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Vitesse vs Jong Utrecht?
Our statistical model gives Vitesse a 27% chance of winning, Jong Utrecht a 46% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Jong Utrecht the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vitesse vs Jong Utrecht?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Vitesse and Jong Utrecht will score (BTTS).
Will Vitesse vs Jong Utrecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vitesse and Jong Utrecht?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Vitesse and Jong Utrecht in?
Vitesse (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-L-L-W-D. Jong Utrecht (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Vitesse's attack rating (0.75) and Jong Utrecht's defence rating (1.03), the model arrives at 1.19 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Jong Utrecht's attack (0.81x) against Vitesse's defence (1.41x) — and the away total comes out at 1.61.
These ratings are built from 18/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-1 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jong Utrecht Win
27%
3.77
28%
3.62
46%
2.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Vitesse xG
Total xG
2.80
1.61
Jong Utrecht xG
3.77
27%
Home win
3.62
28%
Draw
2.18
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
20%
5.02
31%
3.28
Win to Nil
5%
18.92
14%
7.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 9.8 | 7.9 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 11.6 | 9.4 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 6.9 | 5.6 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.7 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vitesse vs Jong Utrecht?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Vitesse and Jong Utrecht expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Vitesse and 1.61 for Jong Utrecht, a combined total of 2.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Vitesse vs Jong Utrecht?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Vitesse come into this having played 52 games, going 9W 13D 30L for 0.77 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W-D. The sample for Vitesse is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Jong Utrecht sit at 0.58 PPG from 52 outings (4W 18D 30L), a run that reads L-L-D-D-L across their last five. The sample for Jong Utrecht is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.77 PPG for Vitesse against 0.58 for Jong Utrecht. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Vitesse's home form reads 3W 10D 12L across 25 games on their own ground, a 0.76 PPG return.
Away from home, Jong Utrecht have taken 0.48 points per game from 25 outings (1W 9D 15L).
Attack vs Defence
Vitesse are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.15 conceded per game recently; Jong Utrecht are on 0.85 scored and 2.02 conceded.
Last 52 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vitesse
Blended
Jong Utrecht
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vitesse and Jong Utrecht in coming into this match?
Vitesse have gone 9W 13D 30L in their last 52 games (0.77 PPG), while Jong Utrecht have gone 4W 18D 30L in their last 52 (0.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vitesse at home or Jong Utrecht away?
Vitesse's home record (0.76 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vitesse at home: 0.76 PPG; Jong Utrecht away: 0.48 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 5 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. The two were last together as recently as 17 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Vitesse have won the last 5 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Vitesse won 0-3 on 13 Apr 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Vitesse have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Jong Utrecht — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
5
Vitesse
0
Draws
0
Jong Utrecht
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vitesse and Jong Utrecht?
From 5 meetings on record, Vitesse have won 5, Jong Utrecht have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Vitesse and Jong Utrecht last play each other?
They last met on 17 August 2026, when Jong Utrecht 1-3 Vitesse.
Who has won more matches between Vitesse and Jong Utrecht?
Vitesse have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Vitesse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Jong Utrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vitesse 64%, Jong Utrecht 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Vitesse) and 60% (Jong Utrecht). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Vitesse have failed to score in 32% of games; Jong Utrecht in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vitesse home games / Jong Utrecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vitesse play Jong Utrecht?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Vitesse's games and 60% of Jong Utrecht's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Vitesse vs Jong Utrecht usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of Vitesse's matches and 60% of Jong Utrecht's.
Do Vitesse and Jong Utrecht tend to score early?
Vitesse have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Jong Utrecht in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Vitesse defy the odds to beat Jong Utrecht 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Vitesse beat Jong Utrecht 2-1 at GelreDome, Regular Season - 19, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vitesse 1.19 xG and Jong Utrecht 1.61 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Vitesse beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vitesse attack 0.75 / defence 1.41 against Jong Utrecht attack 0.81 / defence 1.03, drawn from 18/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vitesse 27% | Draw 28% | Jong Utrecht 46%, with Jong Utrecht to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Vitesse win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vitesse 62%, Jong Utrecht 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vitesse's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Jong Utrecht's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Vitesse 0.77 PPG, Jong Utrecht 0.58 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Vitesse win broke the near-deadlock. Vitesse (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.96 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.84 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.