Vitesse vs FC Volendam – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Vitesse at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Vitesse vs FC Volendam fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
FC Volendam make the trip to GelreDome to face Vitesse in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 36. The match kicks off on Friday 30 April 2027 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
Vitesse (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this term — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L D W L W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Vitesse have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Vitesse's home record at GelreDome: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.10 lags behind their overall 1.80 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at GelreDome this season.
FC Volendam's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L L W L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. FC Volendam have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, FC Volendam have posted 3W 1D 6L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Vitesse. A 0.50 PPG lead over FC Volendam (1.80 vs 1.30) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Vitesse lead 1W to 3W over the last 6 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Jan 2025, ended 0–4 with FC Volendam winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Vitesse — key trading statistics (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
FC Volendam — key trading statistics (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Vitesse 65% and FC Volendam 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Vitesse 70% | FC Volendam 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vitesse 1.76 xG and FC Volendam 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vitesse attack 0.836 / defence 1.017 | FC Volendam attack 0.777 / defence 1.188. League average goals — home 1.770 / away 1.698. Data: 42 Vitesse games / 4 FC Volendam games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vitesse 47% | Draw 23% | FC Volendam 29%. Fair-value odds: Vitesse 2.13 | Draw 4.35 | FC Volendam 3.45. Vitesse hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.10. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.10 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.76 / 1.34) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
FC Volendam lead the H2H ledger, but Vitesse carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
On the Poisson output, Vitesse are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Vitesse if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.10 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate: Vitesse 70% | FC Volendam 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vitesse vs FC Volendam | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: GelreDome • Kick-off: Friday 30 Apr 2027, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vitesse 47% | Draw 23% | FC Volendam 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 61% | xG Vitesse 1.76 / FC Volendam 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Vitesse attack 0.836 / def 1.017 | FC Volendam attack 0.777 / def 1.188 | league avg home 1.770 / away 1.698 • Poisson stance: Vitesse (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.76
Vitesse xG
Expected Goals
1.34
FC Volendam xG
61%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vitesse vs FC Volendam kick off?
Vitesse vs FC Volendam is scheduled to kick off at 18:00 on Friday 30 April 2027 at GelreDome.
Where is Vitesse vs FC Volendam being played?
The match is being played at GelreDome.
What competition is Vitesse vs FC Volendam part of?
Vitesse vs FC Volendam is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Vitesse vs FC Volendam?
Our statistical model gives Vitesse a 47% chance of winning, FC Volendam a 29% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Vitesse the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vitesse vs FC Volendam?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Vitesse and FC Volendam will score (BTTS).
Will Vitesse vs FC Volendam have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vitesse and FC Volendam?
Record (6 meetings): Vitesse 1W | Draws 2 | FC Volendam 3W.
What form are Vitesse and FC Volendam in?
Vitesse (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-W-L-W. FC Volendam (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Vitesse's attack at 0.84x the league average against FC Volendam's defence at 1.19x — combine the two and it projects 1.76 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — FC Volendam's attack (0.78x) against Vitesse's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 1.34.
These ratings are built from 42/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-2 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Vitesse Win
47%
2.11
23%
4.29
29%
3.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.76
Vitesse xG
Total xG
3.10
1.34
FC Volendam xG
2.11
47%
Home win
4.29
23%
Draw
3.40
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.57
Clean Sheet
26%
3.83
17%
5.80
Win to Nil
12%
8.09
5%
19.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 6.0 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 10.6 | 7.1 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 9.3 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 5.5 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vitesse vs FC Volendam?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Vitesse and FC Volendam expected to score?
The model projects 1.76 expected goals for Vitesse and 1.34 for FC Volendam, a combined total of 3.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Vitesse vs FC Volendam?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Vitesse come into this having played 40 games, going 17W 11D 12L for 1.55 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-L-W. It's still early in the season for Vitesse, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, FC Volendam sit at 1.02 PPG from 40 outings (11W 8D 21L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for FC Volendam, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Vitesse carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.53 PPG clear of FC Volendam — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Vitesse's home form reads 6W 7D 7L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.25 PPG return.
Away from home, FC Volendam have taken 0.60 points per game from 20 outings (3W 3D 14L). That's a step down from their 1.02 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of FC Volendam's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Vitesse come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Vitesse are averaging 1.78 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; FC Volendam are on 1.23 scored and 1.58 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Vitesse have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games; FC Volendam in 60%.
Last 40 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vitesse
Early Season
FC Volendam
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vitesse and FC Volendam in coming into this match?
Vitesse have gone 17W 11D 12L in their last 40 games (1.55 PPG), while FC Volendam have gone 11W 8D 21L in their last 40 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vitesse at home or FC Volendam away?
Vitesse's home record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vitesse at home: 1.25 PPG; FC Volendam away: 0.60 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eredivisie, Eerste Divisie all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 January 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: FC Volendam have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FC Volendam won 4-0 on 17 Jan 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Vitesse have gone 0W 2D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against FC Volendam — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Vitesse
2
Draws
3
FC Volendam
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vitesse and FC Volendam?
From 6 meetings on record, Vitesse have won 1, FC Volendam have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Vitesse and FC Volendam last play each other?
They last met on 17 January 2025, when FC Volendam 4-0 Vitesse.
Who has won more matches between Vitesse and FC Volendam?
FC Volendam have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Vitesse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 55% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
FC Volendam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vitesse 70%, FC Volendam 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for Vitesse and 55% for FC Volendam. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Volendam in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vitesse home games / FC Volendam away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vitesse play FC Volendam?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Vitesse's games and 45% of FC Volendam's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Vitesse vs FC Volendam usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Vitesse's matches and 55% of FC Volendam's.
Do Vitesse and FC Volendam tend to score early?
Vitesse have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, FC Volendam in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.