Telstar 2-1 Roda – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Roda at 66% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Telstar vs Roda encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 11 as Telstar welcome Roda to BUKO Stadion. Kick-off is set for Friday 14 October 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Telstar stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L D D W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Telstar, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at BUKO Stadion, Telstar have gone 2W 1D 7L this season (10 games, 0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.70 lags behind their overall 1.20 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at BUKO Stadion this season.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Roda have recorded 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D W D L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Roda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Roda have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Roda are 0.60 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 1.20), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Telstar, 2 for Roda and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 7.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 6 May 2022, ended 3–4 with Roda winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 7.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Telstar in-play tendencies (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Roda in-play tendencies (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Telstar 62% and Roda 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Telstar 60% | Roda 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Telstar 1.00 xG and Roda 2.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Telstar attack 0.701 / defence 1.364 | Roda attack 1.214 / defence 0.869. League average goals — home 1.640 / away 1.363. Telstar's attack strength of 0.701 is below the league average — the 1.00 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Roda have an above-average attack strength of 1.214 — the away xG of 2.26 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 48 Telstar games / 48 Roda games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Telstar 15% | Draw 19% | Roda 66%. Fair-value odds: Telstar 6.67 | Draw 5.26 | Roda 1.52. The model has a clear lean to Roda (66%) — a 51pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 3.25. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.25 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Roda are the pick at 66% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.25 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 63% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates are neutral: Telstar 50% | Roda 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Telstar vs Roda | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: BUKO Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 14 Oct 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Telstar 15% | Draw 19% | Roda 66% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 57% | xG Telstar 1.00 / Roda 2.26 • Poisson strength factors: Telstar attack 0.701 / def 1.364 | Roda attack 1.214 / def 0.869 | league avg home 1.640 / away 1.363 • Poisson stance: Roda (66%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
Telstar xG
Expected Goals
2.26
Roda xG
57%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Telstar vs Roda kick off?
Telstar vs Roda kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 14 October 2022 at BUKO Stadion.
What was the final score in Telstar vs Roda?
Telstar 2 - 1 Roda.
Where is Telstar vs Roda being played?
The match is being played at BUKO Stadion.
What competition is Telstar vs Roda part of?
Telstar vs Roda is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Telstar vs Roda?
Our statistical model gives Telstar a 15% chance of winning, Roda a 66% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Roda the favourite.
Will both teams score in Telstar vs Roda?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Telstar and Roda will score (BTTS).
Will Telstar vs Roda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Telstar and Roda?
Record (2 meetings): Telstar 0W | Draws 0 | Roda 2W.
What form are Telstar and Roda in?
Telstar (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-D-D-W. Roda (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Telstar's attack rating (0.70) and Roda's defence rating (0.87), the model arrives at 1.00 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Roda's attack versus Telstar's defence, projects 2.26 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-2 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.8%. Close behind: 1-1 (9.8%), 1-2 (9.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Roda Win
15%
6.50
19%
5.30
66%
1.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
9.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
0 – 1
8.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
Telstar xG
Total xG
3.25
2.26
Roda xG
6.50
15%
Home win
5.30
19%
Draw
1.52
66%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.77
43%
BTTS No
2.30
Clean Sheet
10%
9.55
37%
2.71
Win to Nil
2%
62.08
24%
4.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 8.7 | 9.8 | 7.4 | 4.2 | 1.9 |
| 1 | 3.9 | 8.7 | 9.8 | 7.4 | 4.2 | 1.9 |
| 2 | 1.9 | 4.3 | 4.9 | 3.7 | 2.1 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Telstar vs Roda?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.8%.
How many goals are Telstar and Roda expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for Telstar and 2.26 for Roda, a combined total of 3.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Telstar vs Roda?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Telstar come into this having played 48 games, going 11W 14D 23L for 0.98 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-D-W. The sample for Telstar is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Roda sit at 1.71 PPG from 48 outings (22W 16D 10L), a run that reads D-W-D-L-W across their last five. The sample for Roda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Roda carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.73 PPG clear of Telstar — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Telstar's home form reads 5W 6D 13L across 24 games on their own ground, a 0.88 PPG return.
Away from home, Roda have taken 1.50 points per game from 24 outings (9W 9D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Roda come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Telstar are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.88 conceded per game recently; Roda are on 1.98 scored and 1.35 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Telstar have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Roda in 60%.
Last 48 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Telstar
Blended
Roda
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Telstar and Roda in coming into this match?
Telstar have gone 11W 14D 23L in their last 48 games (0.98 PPG), while Roda have gone 22W 16D 10L in their last 48 (1.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Telstar at home or Roda away?
Roda's away record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Telstar at home: 0.88 PPG; Roda away: 1.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 14 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 Sep 2023, when Roda won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Telstar's record when hosting Roda specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Telstar
1
Draws
4
Roda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Telstar and Roda?
From 8 meetings on record, Telstar have won 3, Roda have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Telstar and Roda last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2025, when Telstar 3-1 Roda.
Who has won more matches between Telstar and Roda?
Roda have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Telstar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Roda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Telstar 58%, Roda 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Telstar and 58% for Roda. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Telstar have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Telstar home games / Roda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Telstar play Roda?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Telstar's games and 62% of Roda's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Telstar vs Roda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Telstar's matches and 58% of Roda's.
Do Telstar and Roda tend to score early?
Telstar have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Roda in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Telstar defy the odds to beat Roda 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Telstar beat Roda 2-1 at BUKO Stadion, Regular Season - 11, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Telstar 1.00 xG and Roda 2.26 xG, a combined 3.25. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Telstar beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Roda landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Telstar attack 0.70 / defence 1.36 against Roda attack 1.21 / defence 0.87, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Telstar 15% | Draw 19% | Roda 66%, with Roda to win its most likely call at 66%. Instead the game produced a Telstar win, an outcome the model had rated at just 15% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Telstar 60%, Roda 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Telstar's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Roda's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Roda arrived the stronger side — 1.71 PPG against 0.98. Form was overturned, with Telstar winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Telstar (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.04 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.12 average — tighter than their form line. Roda (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.83 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.