Telstar 1-4 NAC Breda – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates NAC Breda at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Telstar vs NAC Breda encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
NAC Breda make the trip to BUKO Stadion to face Telstar in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 27. The match kicks off on Monday 14 March 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Telstar have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 2W 5D 3L. Last five: D L D D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Telstar at BUKO Stadion this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
NAC Breda's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: W W W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, NAC Breda have posted 4W 1D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. NAC Breda are 0.70 PPG clear of Telstar in recent Eerste Divisie fixtures (1.80 vs 1.10). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Telstar, 0 for NAC Breda and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Aug 2021, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Telstar goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (28 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
NAC Breda goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (28 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Telstar 61% versus NAC Breda 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Telstar 57% | NAC Breda 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Telstar 1.11 xG and NAC Breda 1.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Telstar attack 0.789 / defence 1.369 | NAC Breda attack 0.876 / defence 1.121. League average goals — home 1.260 / away 1.439. Telstar's attack strength of 0.789 is below the league average — the 1.11 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 28 Telstar games / 29 NAC Breda games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Telstar 24% | Draw 25% | NAC Breda 51%. Fair-value odds: Telstar 4.17 | Draw 4.00 | NAC Breda 1.96. NAC Breda hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates NAC Breda as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on NAC Breda if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.84 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates are neutral: Telstar 60% | NAC Breda 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Telstar vs NAC Breda | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: BUKO Stadion • Kick-off: Monday 14 Mar 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Telstar 24% | Draw 25% | NAC Breda 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 56% | xG Telstar 1.11 / NAC Breda 1.73 • Poisson strength factors: Telstar attack 0.789 / def 1.369 | NAC Breda attack 0.876 / def 1.121 | league avg home 1.260 / away 1.439 • Poisson stance: NAC Breda (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Telstar xG
Expected Goals
1.73
NAC Breda xG
56%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Telstar vs NAC Breda kick off?
Telstar vs NAC Breda kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 14 March 2022 at BUKO Stadion.
What was the final score in Telstar vs NAC Breda?
Telstar 1 - 4 NAC Breda.
Where is Telstar vs NAC Breda being played?
The match is being played at BUKO Stadion.
What competition is Telstar vs NAC Breda part of?
Telstar vs NAC Breda is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Telstar vs NAC Breda?
Our statistical model gives Telstar a 24% chance of winning, NAC Breda a 51% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making NAC Breda the favourite.
Will both teams score in Telstar vs NAC Breda?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Telstar and NAC Breda will score (BTTS).
Will Telstar vs NAC Breda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Telstar and NAC Breda?
Record (1 meetings): Telstar 0W | Draws 1 | NAC Breda 0W.
What form are Telstar and NAC Breda in?
Telstar (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-D-D-L. NAC Breda (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Telstar's attack rating (0.79) and NAC Breda's defence rating (1.12), the model arrives at 1.11 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — NAC Breda's attack (0.88x) against Telstar's defence (1.37x) — and the away total comes out at 1.73.
These ratings are built from 28/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.7%), 0-2 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
NAC Breda Win
24%
4.15
25%
4.05
51%
1.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.1%
Away win
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Telstar xG
Total xG
2.84
1.73
NAC Breda xG
4.15
24%
Home win
4.05
25%
Draw
1.95
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
18%
5.62
33%
3.05
Win to Nil
4%
23.31
17%
5.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 10.1 | 8.7 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 11.2 | 9.7 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 6.3 | 5.4 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Telstar vs NAC Breda?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Telstar and NAC Breda expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Telstar and 1.73 for NAC Breda, a combined total of 2.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Telstar vs NAC Breda?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 28 outings, Telstar have picked up 1.04 PPG on a 6W 11D 11L record — D-L-D-D-L across the most recent five.
NAC Breda's form line: 12W 8D 8L from 28 games, 1.57 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-W.
Put side by side, NAC Breda are the form team by 0.53 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Telstar.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Telstar have posted 1.00 PPG from 13 outings (3W 4D 6L).
On the road, NAC Breda have gone 4W 2D 7L from 13 away games — 1.08 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.57 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of NAC Breda's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Telstar are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.86 conceded per game recently; NAC Breda are on 1.54 scored and 1.11 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Telstar have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Defensively: NAC Breda in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 28 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Telstar
Current Season
NAC Breda
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Telstar and NAC Breda in coming into this match?
Telstar have gone 6W 11D 11L in their last 28 games (1.04 PPG), while NAC Breda have gone 12W 8D 8L in their last 28 (1.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Telstar at home or NAC Breda away?
NAC Breda's away record (1.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Telstar at home: 1.00 PPG; NAC Breda away: 1.08 PPG.
Have Telstar or NAC Breda been keeping clean sheets recently?
Telstar have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, NAC Breda in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 27 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Telstar have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: NAC Breda won 1-4 on 14 Mar 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Telstar have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against NAC Breda — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Telstar
3
Draws
2
NAC Breda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Telstar and NAC Breda?
From 8 meetings on record, Telstar have won 3, NAC Breda have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Telstar and NAC Breda last play each other?
They last met on 27 February 2026, when Telstar 3-0 NAC Breda.
Who has won more matches between Telstar and NAC Breda?
Telstar have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Telstar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
NAC Breda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Telstar 62%, NAC Breda 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Telstar) and 46% (NAC Breda).
On the defensive side: NAC Breda in 31%; NAC Breda in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Telstar home games / NAC Breda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Telstar play NAC Breda?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Telstar's recent matches and 38% of NAC Breda's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Telstar vs NAC Breda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Telstar's recent games and 46% of NAC Breda's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Telstar and NAC Breda tend to score early?
Telstar have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, NAC Breda in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant NAC Breda run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Telstar.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
NAC Breda beat Telstar 1-4 at BUKO Stadion, Regular Season - 27, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Telstar 1.11 xG and NAC Breda 1.73 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. NAC Breda outscored their 1.73 projection by 2.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Telstar attack 0.79 / defence 1.37 against NAC Breda attack 0.88 / defence 1.12, drawn from 28/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Telstar 24% | Draw 25% | NAC Breda 51%, with NAC Breda to win its most likely call at 51%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Telstar 57%, NAC Breda 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Telstar's trading profile (28 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
NAC Breda's trading profile (28 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, NAC Breda arrived the stronger side — 1.57 PPG against 1.04. Form held, and they took the win. Telstar (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 2.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual. NAC Breda (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.31 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.