Telstar 0-3 De Graafschap – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates De Graafschap at 58%, yet other data sources diverge — this Telstar vs De Graafschap fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
De Graafschap make the trip to BUKO Stadion to face Telstar in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 25. The match kicks off on Friday 4 February 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Telstar (all games): 2W 5D 3L across 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D L W W D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Telstar, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at BUKO Stadion, Telstar have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
De Graafschap have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: W L D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for De Graafschap, so this record blends games from this season and last.
De Graafschap's away record: 6W 2D 2L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 2.00 exceeds their overall 1.50 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.10 for Telstar, 1.50 for De Graafschap — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Telstar lead 0W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Nov 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Telstar — key trading statistics (24 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
De Graafschap — key trading statistics (24 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 42% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Telstar 58% versus De Graafschap 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Telstar 50% | De Graafschap 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Telstar 0.78 xG and De Graafschap 1.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Telstar attack 0.863 / defence 1.301 | De Graafschap attack 0.909 / defence 0.799. League average goals — home 1.133 / away 1.406. De Graafschap's defence strength of 0.799 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 24 Telstar games / 24 De Graafschap games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Telstar 17% | Draw 24% | De Graafschap 58%. Fair-value odds: Telstar 5.88 | Draw 4.17 | De Graafschap 1.72. The model has a clear lean to De Graafschap (58%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, De Graafschap are the pick at 58% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.44 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Telstar 60% | De Graafschap 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Telstar vs De Graafschap | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: BUKO Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 4 Feb 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Telstar 17% | Draw 24% | De Graafschap 58% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 44% | xG Telstar 0.78 / De Graafschap 1.66 • Poisson strength factors: Telstar attack 0.863 / def 1.301 | De Graafschap attack 0.909 / def 0.799 | league avg home 1.133 / away 1.406 • Poisson stance: De Graafschap (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.78
Telstar xG
Expected Goals
1.66
De Graafschap xG
44%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Telstar vs De Graafschap kick off?
Telstar vs De Graafschap kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 4 February 2022 at BUKO Stadion.
What was the final score in Telstar vs De Graafschap?
Telstar 0 - 3 De Graafschap.
Where is Telstar vs De Graafschap being played?
The match is being played at BUKO Stadion.
What competition is Telstar vs De Graafschap part of?
Telstar vs De Graafschap is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Telstar vs De Graafschap?
Our statistical model gives Telstar a 17% chance of winning, De Graafschap a 58% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making De Graafschap the favourite.
Will both teams score in Telstar vs De Graafschap?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Telstar and De Graafschap will score (BTTS).
Will Telstar vs De Graafschap have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Telstar and De Graafschap?
Record (1 meetings): Telstar 0W | Draws 1 | De Graafschap 0W.
What form are Telstar and De Graafschap in?
Telstar (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-W-W-D. De Graafschap (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Telstar's attack rating (0.86) and De Graafschap's defence rating (0.80), the model arrives at 0.78 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — De Graafschap's attack (0.91x) against Telstar's defence (1.30x) — and the away total comes out at 1.66.
These ratings are built from 24/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.0%. Close behind: 1-1 (12.7%), 0-2 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
De Graafschap Win
17%
5.75
24%
4.13
58%
1.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.4%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
12.0%
Away win
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.78
Telstar xG
Total xG
2.44
1.66
De Graafschap xG
5.75
17%
Home win
4.13
24%
Draw
1.71
58%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.28
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
19%
5.28
46%
2.18
Win to Nil
3%
30.32
27%
3.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 14.4 | 12.0 | 6.7 | 2.8 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 11.3 | 9.4 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 2.6 | 4.4 | 3.7 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Telstar vs De Graafschap?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Telstar and De Graafschap expected to score?
The model projects 0.78 expected goals for Telstar and 1.66 for De Graafschap, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Telstar vs De Graafschap?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Telstar's recent record stands at 6W 9D 9L from 24 games, a 1.12 PPG return, with D-L-W-W-D in the last five. The sample for Telstar is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
De Graafschap, meanwhile, have gone 12W 5D 7L across 24 games — 1.71 PPG, with W-L-D-W-D in their last five. The sample for De Graafschap is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours De Graafschap by 0.59 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Telstar heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Telstar have managed 3W 4D 5L from 12 games — 1.08 PPG in front of their own supporters.
De Graafschap's away record stands at 8W 2D 2L across 12 trips, a 2.17 PPG haul. That's actually stronger than their 1.71 PPG overall record — De Graafschap travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, De Graafschap come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Telstar are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game recently; De Graafschap are on 1.46 scored and 1.04 conceded.
Defensively: De Graafschap in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 24 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Telstar
Blended
De Graafschap
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Telstar and De Graafschap in coming into this match?
Telstar have gone 6W 9D 9L in their last 24 games (1.12 PPG), while De Graafschap have gone 12W 5D 7L in their last 24 (1.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Telstar at home or De Graafschap away?
De Graafschap's away record (2.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Telstar at home: 1.08 PPG; De Graafschap away: 2.17 PPG.
Have Telstar or De Graafschap been keeping clean sheets recently?
Telstar have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, De Graafschap in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: De Graafschap won 5-1 on 12 Apr 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Telstar have gone 0W 1D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against De Graafschap — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Telstar
2
Draws
5
De Graafschap
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Telstar and De Graafschap?
From 8 meetings on record, Telstar have won 1, De Graafschap have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Telstar and De Graafschap last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2025, when De Graafschap 2-1 Telstar.
Who has won more matches between Telstar and De Graafschap?
De Graafschap have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Telstar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
De Graafschap see a goal before the break in 42% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Telstar 67%, De Graafschap 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Telstar) and 67% (De Graafschap). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: De Graafschap in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Telstar home games / De Graafschap away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Telstar play De Graafschap?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Telstar's games and 50% of De Graafschap's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Telstar vs De Graafschap usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Telstar's matches and 67% of De Graafschap's.
Do Telstar and De Graafschap tend to score early?
Telstar have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, De Graafschap in 42% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant De Graafschap run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Telstar.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
De Graafschap beat Telstar 0-3 at BUKO Stadion, Regular Season - 25, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Telstar 0.78 xG and De Graafschap 1.66 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. De Graafschap outscored their 1.66 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Telstar attack 0.86 / defence 1.30 against De Graafschap attack 0.91 / defence 0.80, drawn from 24/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Telstar 17% | Draw 24% | De Graafschap 58%, with De Graafschap to win its most likely call at 58%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Telstar 50%, De Graafschap 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Telstar's trading profile (24 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
De Graafschap's trading profile (24 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, De Graafschap arrived the stronger side — 1.71 PPG against 1.12. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Telstar (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. De Graafschap (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.92 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.