Roda 4-1 VVV Venlo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Roda at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Roda vs VVV Venlo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
VVV Venlo make the trip to Parkstad Limburg Stadion to face Roda in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 10. The match kicks off on Friday 7 October 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Roda (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D D W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Roda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Roda have posted 6W 2D 2L at Parkstad Limburg Stadion — 2.00 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Roda are significantly better at Parkstad Limburg Stadion than their overall form suggests.
VVV Venlo have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: W L D D W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.70. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for VVV Venlo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, VVV Venlo have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
VVV Venlo arrive in superior form — a 0.50 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 1.50) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Roda register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, VVV Venlo in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Roda, 0 for VVV Venlo and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 2 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 13 Feb 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Roda goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
VVV Venlo goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Roda 60% versus VVV Venlo 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Roda 57% | VVV Venlo 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Roda 1.93 xG and VVV Venlo 1.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Roda attack 1.025 / defence 1.081 | VVV Venlo attack 1.272 / defence 1.135. League average goals — home 1.655 / away 1.400. VVV Venlo have an above-average attack strength of 1.272 — the away xG of 1.93 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 47 Roda games / 47 VVV Venlo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Roda 39% | Draw 23% | VVV Venlo 38%. Fair-value odds: Roda 2.56 | Draw 4.35 | VVV Venlo 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 74% | BTTS probability 74% | Total xG 3.85. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 74% — a total xG of 3.85 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 74% reflects that both xG figures (1.93 / 1.93) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Roda as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form VVV Venlo (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Roda if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.85 combined xG gives a 74% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 74%. Form rates corroborate: Roda 70% | VVV Venlo 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Roda vs VVV Venlo | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Parkstad Limburg Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 7 Oct 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Roda 39% | Draw 23% | VVV Venlo 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 74% | BTTS 74% | xG Roda 1.93 / VVV Venlo 1.93 • Poisson strength factors: Roda attack 1.025 / def 1.081 | VVV Venlo attack 1.272 / def 1.135 | league avg home 1.655 / away 1.400 • Poisson stance: Roda (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.93
Roda xG
Expected Goals
1.93
VVV Venlo xG
74%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
74%
Over 2.5
54%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Roda vs VVV Venlo kick off?
Roda vs VVV Venlo kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 7 October 2022 at Parkstad Limburg Stadion.
What was the final score in Roda vs VVV Venlo?
Roda 4 - 1 VVV Venlo.
Where is Roda vs VVV Venlo being played?
The match is being played at Parkstad Limburg Stadion.
What competition is Roda vs VVV Venlo part of?
Roda vs VVV Venlo is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Roda vs VVV Venlo?
Our statistical model gives Roda a 39% chance of winning, VVV Venlo a 38% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Roda the favourite.
Will both teams score in Roda vs VVV Venlo?
Our model estimates a 74% probability that both Roda and VVV Venlo will score (BTTS).
Will Roda vs VVV Venlo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 74%.
What is the head-to-head record between Roda and VVV Venlo?
Record (2 meetings): Roda 0W | Draws 2 | VVV Venlo 0W.
What form are Roda and VVV Venlo in?
Roda (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-W-D-L. VVV Venlo (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Roda's attacking strength (1.02x league average) is weighed against VVV Venlo's defensive record (1.14x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.93. Flip it around — VVV Venlo's attack (1.27x) against Roda's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 1.93.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 8.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (7.6%), 1-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Roda Win
39%
2.60
23%
4.34
38%
2.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
7.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
7.6%
Away win
2 – 1
7.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.93
Roda xG
Total xG
3.85
1.93
VVV Venlo xG
2.60
39%
Home win
4.34
23%
Draw
2.60
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
74%
Over 2.5
1.35
26%
Under 2.5
3.85
54%
Over 3.5
1.85
46%
Under 3.5
2.17
34%
Over 4.5
2.94
66%
Under 4.5
1.52
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
74%
BTTS Yes
1.35
26%
BTTS No
3.84
Clean Sheet
15%
6.86
15%
6.87
Win to Nil
6%
17.79
6%
17.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.1 | 4.1 | 3.9 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 4.1 | 7.9 | 7.6 | 4.9 | 2.3 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 7.6 | 7.3 | 4.7 | 2.3 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 4.9 | 4.7 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Roda vs VVV Venlo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.9%.
How many goals are Roda and VVV Venlo expected to score?
The model projects 1.93 expected goals for Roda and 1.93 for VVV Venlo, a combined total of 3.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Roda vs VVV Venlo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Roda come into this having played 47 games, going 21W 16D 10L for 1.68 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-D-L. The sample for Roda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, VVV Venlo sit at 1.38 PPG from 47 outings (19W 8D 20L), a run that reads W-L-D-D-W across their last five. The sample for VVV Venlo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.68 PPG for Roda against 1.38 for VVV Venlo. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Roda's home form reads 12W 7D 4L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.87 PPG return.
Away from home, VVV Venlo have taken 1.39 points per game from 23 outings (10W 2D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Roda come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Roda are averaging 1.94 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; VVV Venlo are on 1.40 scored and 1.68 conceded.
Last 47 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Roda
Blended
VVV Venlo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Roda and VVV Venlo in coming into this match?
Roda have gone 21W 16D 10L in their last 47 games (1.68 PPG), while VVV Venlo have gone 19W 8D 20L in their last 47 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Roda at home or VVV Venlo away?
Roda's home record (1.87 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Roda at home: 1.87 PPG; VVV Venlo away: 1.39 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 26 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Roda won 4-1 on 7 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Roda have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against VVV Venlo — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Roda
6
Draws
2
VVV Venlo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Roda and VVV Venlo?
From 10 meetings on record, Roda have won 2, VVV Venlo have won 2, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Roda and VVV Venlo last play each other?
They last met on 26 January 2026, when Roda 2-2 VVV Venlo.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Roda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
VVV Venlo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Roda 56%, VVV Venlo 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 56% for Roda and 70% for VVV Venlo. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Roda keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; VVV Venlo in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Roda home games / VVV Venlo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Roda play VVV Venlo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Roda's recent matches and 52% of VVV Venlo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Roda vs VVV Venlo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Roda's matches and 70% of VVV Venlo's.
Do Roda and VVV Venlo tend to score early?
Roda have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, VVV Venlo in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Roda run riot with a 4-1 hammering of VVV Venlo.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Roda beat VVV Venlo 4-1 at Parkstad Limburg Stadion, Regular Season - 10, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Roda 1.93 xG and VVV Venlo 1.93 xG, a combined 3.85. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Roda beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. VVV Venlo landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Roda attack 1.02 / defence 1.08 against VVV Venlo attack 1.27 / defence 1.14, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Roda 39% | Draw 23% | VVV Venlo 38%, with Roda to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 74%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 54% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 74% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Roda 57%, VVV Venlo 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Roda's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
VVV Venlo's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Roda 1.68 PPG, VVV Venlo 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Roda win broke the near-deadlock. Roda (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.04 average — above their attacking norm. VVV Venlo (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.70 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.