Roda 4-3 Telstar – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Roda at 56% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Roda vs Telstar encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 38 sees Telstar travel to Parkstad Limburg Stadion to take on Roda. The game is scheduled for Friday 6 May 2022, 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Roda — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 2.00 points per game. Last five: W D W L L. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Roda at Parkstad Limburg Stadion this season: 7W 3D 0L from 10 home games — 2.40 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Parkstad Limburg Stadion.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Telstar have recorded 2W 0D 8L from 10 outings — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
On the road, Telstar have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, Roda have the edge — a 1.40 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 0.60) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Roda, 0 for Telstar and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 7.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 20 Aug 2021, ended 4–3 with Roda winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 7.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Roda in-play tendencies (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Telstar in-play tendencies (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Roda 57% and Telstar 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Roda 60% | Telstar 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Roda 2.25 xG and Telstar 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Roda attack 1.347 / defence 1.042 | Telstar attack 0.935 / defence 1.317. League average goals — home 1.265 / away 1.452. Roda carry an above-average attack strength of 1.347 — their λ of 2.25 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Telstar bring a strong defensive rating of 1.317 — this is suppressing Roda's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 37 Roda games / 37 Telstar games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Roda 56% | Draw 20% | Telstar 24%. Fair-value odds: Roda 1.79 | Draw 5.00 | Telstar 4.17. The model has a clear lean to Roda (56%) — a 32pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.66. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.66 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (2.25 / 1.41) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Roda are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.66 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 71% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 68%. Form rates corroborate: Roda 50% | Telstar 90% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Roda vs Telstar | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 38 | Venue: Parkstad Limburg Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 6 May 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Roda 56% | Draw 20% | Telstar 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% | BTTS 68% | xG Roda 2.25 / Telstar 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: Roda attack 1.347 / def 1.042 | Telstar attack 0.935 / def 1.317 | league avg home 1.265 / away 1.452 • Poisson stance: Roda (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.25
Roda xG
Expected Goals
1.41
Telstar xG
68%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Roda vs Telstar kick off?
Roda vs Telstar kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 6 May 2022 at Parkstad Limburg Stadion.
What was the final score in Roda vs Telstar?
Roda 4 - 3 Telstar.
Where is Roda vs Telstar being played?
The match is being played at Parkstad Limburg Stadion.
What competition is Roda vs Telstar part of?
Roda vs Telstar is a Regular Season - 38 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Roda vs Telstar?
Our statistical model gives Roda a 56% chance of winning, Telstar a 24% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Roda the favourite.
Will both teams score in Roda vs Telstar?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Roda and Telstar will score (BTTS).
Will Roda vs Telstar have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%.
What is the head-to-head record between Roda and Telstar?
Record (1 meetings): Roda 1W | Draws 0 | Telstar 0W.
What form are Roda and Telstar in?
Roda (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-W-L-L. Telstar (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Roda's attacking strength (1.35x league average) is weighed against Telstar's defensive record (1.32x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.25. The same calculation in reverse, Telstar's attack versus Roda's defence, projects 1.41 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 9.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 3-1 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Roda Win
56%
1.78
20%
4.99
24%
4.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.2%
Draw
3 – 1
6.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.25
Roda xG
Total xG
3.66
1.41
Telstar xG
1.78
56%
Home win
4.99
20%
Draw
4.23
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
50%
Over 3.5
2.00
50%
Under 3.5
2.00
31%
Over 4.5
3.23
69%
Under 4.5
1.45
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.48
32%
BTTS No
3.09
Clean Sheet
24%
4.11
11%
9.45
Win to Nil
14%
7.30
3%
39.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.6 | 3.6 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 5.8 | 8.2 | 5.8 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 9.2 | 6.5 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 6.9 | 4.9 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 3.9 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Roda vs Telstar?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.2%.
How many goals are Roda and Telstar expected to score?
The model projects 2.25 expected goals for Roda and 1.41 for Telstar, a combined total of 3.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Roda vs Telstar?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 37 outings, Roda have picked up 1.70 PPG on a 17W 12D 8L record — W-D-W-L-L across the most recent five.
Telstar's form line: 8W 11D 18L from 37 games, 0.95 PPG, last five L-W-L-L-L.
Put side by side, Roda are the form team by 0.75 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Telstar.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Roda have posted 1.83 PPG from 18 outings (9W 6D 3L).
On the road, Telstar have gone 4W 6D 8L from 18 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Roda come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Roda are averaging 1.97 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Telstar are on 1.19 scored and 1.89 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Telstar in 65%.
Last 37 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Roda
Current Season
Telstar
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Roda and Telstar in coming into this match?
Roda have gone 17W 12D 8L in their last 37 games (1.70 PPG), while Telstar have gone 8W 11D 18L in their last 37 (0.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Roda at home or Telstar away?
Roda's home record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Roda at home: 1.83 PPG; Telstar away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Roda or Telstar been keeping clean sheets recently?
Roda have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Telstar in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Roda and Telstar runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 14 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 Sep 2023, when Roda won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Roda's record when hosting Telstar specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Roda
1
Draws
3
Telstar
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Roda and Telstar?
From 8 meetings on record, Roda have won 4, Telstar have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Roda and Telstar last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2025, when Telstar 3-1 Roda.
Who has won more matches between Roda and Telstar?
Roda have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Roda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Telstar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Roda 56%, Telstar 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 61% for Roda and 67% for Telstar. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Roda keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Roda home games / Telstar away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Roda play Telstar?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Roda's games and 67% of Telstar's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Roda vs Telstar usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Roda's matches and 67% of Telstar's.
Do Roda and Telstar tend to score early?
Roda have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Telstar in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Roda edge out Telstar 4-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Roda beat Telstar 4-3 at Parkstad Limburg Stadion, Regular Season - 38, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Roda 2.25 xG and Telstar 1.41 xG, a combined 3.66. The scoreboard read 4-3 for 7 actual goals. Roda beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Telstar outscored their 1.41 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Roda attack 1.35 / defence 1.04 against Telstar attack 0.94 / defence 1.32, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Roda 56% | Draw 20% | Telstar 24%, with Roda to win its most likely call at 56%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 50% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Roda 60%, Telstar 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Roda's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Telstar's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Roda arrived the stronger side — 1.70 PPG against 0.95. Form held, and they took the win. Roda (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.11 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Telstar (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.28 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.72 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.