Roda 1-2 Excelsior – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Excelsior at 38%, yet in-form Roda provide a compelling counter-argument — this Roda vs Excelsior fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Parkstad Limburg Stadion plays host to Roda versus Excelsior in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off: Friday 13 August 2021 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Roda have collected 3.00 PPG across 1 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 1W 0D 0L. Last five: W. They are averaging 3.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 1 games (100%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Roda have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Excelsior's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 0W 0D 1L from 1 games (0.00 PPG). Last five: L. Their scoring rate of 0.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Excelsior have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The points-per-game gap of 3.00 in Roda's favour (3.00 vs 0.00) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Both sides have a strong clean-sheet tendency (using overall form) — Roda have seen both teams score in just 0% of their games, Excelsior in only 0%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from both squads' form records.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Roda 0.96 xG and Excelsior 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Roda attack 0.982 / defence 1.150 | Excelsior attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 0.853 / away 1.212. Data: 1 Roda games / 1 Excelsior games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Roda 27% | Draw 34% | Excelsior 38%. Fair-value odds: Roda 3.70 | Draw 2.94 | Excelsior 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.15. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.15 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Excelsior at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Roda (3.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Excelsior if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.15 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 36% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Roda vs Excelsior | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Parkstad Limburg Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 13 Aug 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Roda 27% | Draw 34% | Excelsior 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 45% | xG Roda 0.96 / Excelsior 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Roda attack 0.982 / def 1.150 | Excelsior attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 0.853 / away 1.212 • Poisson stance: Excelsior (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.96
Roda xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Excelsior xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Roda vs Excelsior kick off?
Roda vs Excelsior kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 13 August 2021 at Parkstad Limburg Stadion.
What was the final score in Roda vs Excelsior?
Roda 1 - 2 Excelsior.
Where is Roda vs Excelsior being played?
The match is being played at Parkstad Limburg Stadion.
What competition is Roda vs Excelsior part of?
Roda vs Excelsior is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Roda vs Excelsior?
Our statistical model gives Roda a 27% chance of winning, Excelsior a 38% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Excelsior the favourite.
Will both teams score in Roda vs Excelsior?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Roda and Excelsior will score (BTTS).
Will Roda vs Excelsior have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Roda and Excelsior?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Roda and Excelsior in?
Roda (all comps): 1W-0D-0L in 1 | 3.00 PPG | GF 3.00 / GA 0.00 | L5 W. Excelsior (all comps): 0W-0D-1L in 1 | 0.00 PPG | GF 0.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Roda's attack rating (0.98) and Excelsior's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 0.96 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Excelsior's attack (0.85x) against Roda's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.19.
The sample (1/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.4%), 0-1 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Excelsior Win
27%
3.68
34%
2.91
38%
2.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
11.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.96
Roda xG
Total xG
2.15
1.19
Excelsior xG
3.68
27%
Home win
2.91
34%
Draw
2.60
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.20
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
31%
3.27
38%
2.62
Win to Nil
8%
12.02
15%
6.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.7 | 13.8 | 8.2 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 13.3 | 7.9 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 6.4 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Roda vs Excelsior?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Roda and Excelsior expected to score?
The model projects 0.96 expected goals for Roda and 1.19 for Excelsior, a combined total of 2.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Roda vs Excelsior?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Roda's recent record stands at 1W 0D 0L from 1 games, a 3.00 PPG return, with W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Roda, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Excelsior, meanwhile, have gone 0W 0D 1L across 1 games — 0.00 PPG, with L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Excelsior, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Roda by 3.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Excelsior heading into this one.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Roda are averaging 3.00 goals scored and 0.00 conceded per game recently; Excelsior are on 0.00 scored and 1.00 conceded. Roda's scoring rate against Excelsior's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Roda have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games; Excelsior in 0%.
Defensively: Roda have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 1 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Roda
Early Season
Excelsior
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Roda and Excelsior in coming into this match?
Roda have gone 1W 0D 0L in their last 1 games (3.00 PPG), while Excelsior have gone 0W 0D 1L in their last 1 (0.00 PPG).
Have Roda or Excelsior been keeping clean sheets recently?
Roda have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their recent games, Excelsior in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Roda won 3-0 on 4 Oct 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Roda have gone 1W 0D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Excelsior — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Roda
2
Draws
3
Excelsior
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Roda and Excelsior?
From 6 meetings on record, Roda have won 1, Excelsior have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Roda and Excelsior last play each other?
They last met on 2 March 2025, when Excelsior 1-1 Roda.
Who has won more matches between Roda and Excelsior?
Excelsior have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Roda home games / Excelsior away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Roda play Excelsior?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Roda's recent matches and 0% of Excelsior's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Roda vs Excelsior usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 100% of Roda's recent games and 0% of Excelsior's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Roda and Excelsior tend to score early?
Roda have had a goal before half-time in 0% of their recent matches, Excelsior in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Excelsior edge out Roda 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Excelsior beat Roda 1-2 at Parkstad Limburg Stadion, Regular Season - 2, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Roda 0.96 xG and Excelsior 1.19 xG, a combined 2.15. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Excelsior outscored their 1.19 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Roda attack 0.98 / defence 1.15 against Excelsior attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 1/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Roda 27% | Draw 34% | Excelsior 38%, with Excelsior to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Roda 100%, Excelsior 0%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 0%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Roda arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 0.00. Form was overturned, with Excelsior winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Roda managed 1 against a 3.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Excelsior scored 2 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.