Roda 3-2 Emmen – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Roda at 70% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Roda vs Emmen encounter.

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Full Analysis

Parkstad Limburg Stadion plays host to Roda versus Emmen in Eerste Divisie (matchday 26). Kick-off: Friday 16 February 2024 at 19:00 UK time.

Form & Momentum

Roda have collected 1.80 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: D W D L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.

In front of their own supporters, Roda have posted 7W 2D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Emmen's record over their last 10 games: 2W 1D 7L (0.70 PPG). Last five: L L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).

Emmen's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across their last 10 road games (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.

Form favours the hosts. Roda's 1.80 PPG return is 1.10 points per game ahead of Emmen's 0.70 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.

H2H History

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 3 H2H matches in our data, Emmen edge it 2 wins to 1, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 15 Dec 2023, ended Roda 1–0 Emmen — a Roda win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading Data

Roda goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 62 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; of the 23 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).

Emmen goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 62 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 46%; of the 23 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Roda 55% versus Emmen 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Roda 50% | Emmen 56%). Note also that Emmen surrender HT leads in 46% of cases while Roda recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 30% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Roda 2.07 xG and Emmen 0.63 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Roda attack 1.081 / defence 0.656 | Emmen attack 0.743 / defence 1.151. League average goals — home 1.668 / away 1.300. Emmen's attack rating of 0.743 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.63. Roda have a tight defence (rating 0.656), which is pulling Emmen's projected output down. Data: built from Roda's last 63 games and Emmen's last 24.

Result probabilities: Roda 70% | Draw 21% | Emmen 9%. Fair-value odds: Roda 1.43 | Draw 4.77 | Emmen 11.03. The model has a clear lean to Roda (70%) — a 49pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS Yes probability 42% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 58% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Roda as the most likely outcome at 70% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 2.71 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Roda 50% (last 10 home games) | Emmen 50% (last 10 away games).

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