Roda vs Den Bosch – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Roda (45%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Roda face Den Bosch.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 19 as Roda welcome Den Bosch to Parkstad Limburg Stadion. Kick-off is set for Friday 11 December 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Roda have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: D L W W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Roda have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Parkstad Limburg Stadion, Roda have gone 2W 4D 4L this season (10 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Den Bosch — All Games: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L D L W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 2.50. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Den Bosch have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Den Bosch away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Roda carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.70 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.30 vs 0.60. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 4 wins apiece for Roda, 2 for Den Bosch and 4 shared spoils from 10 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Feb 2026, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Roda in-play and half-time data (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Den Bosch in-play and half-time data (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 95% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 81% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Roda 64% and Den Bosch 77% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Roda 57% | Den Bosch 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Roda 1.96 xG and Den Bosch 1.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Roda attack 0.940 / defence 0.989 | Den Bosch attack 1.000 / defence 1.180. League average goals — home 1.770 / away 1.698. Data: 42 Roda games / 42 Den Bosch games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Roda 45% | Draw 22% | Den Bosch 33%. Fair-value odds: Roda 2.22 | Draw 4.55 | Den Bosch 3.03. Roda hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 70% | Total xG 3.64. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.64 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 70% reflects that both xG figures (1.96 / 1.68) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Roda as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Roda offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.64 combined xG gives a 70% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.7 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 70% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Roda 50% | Den Bosch 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Roda vs Den Bosch | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Parkstad Limburg Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 11 Dec 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Roda 45% | Draw 22% | Den Bosch 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% | BTTS 70% | xG Roda 1.96 / Den Bosch 1.68 • Poisson strength factors: Roda attack 0.940 / def 0.989 | Den Bosch attack 1.000 / def 1.180 | league avg home 1.770 / away 1.698 • Poisson stance: Roda (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.96
Roda xG
Expected Goals
1.68
Den Bosch xG
70%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Roda vs Den Bosch kick off?
Roda vs Den Bosch is scheduled to kick off at 19:00 on Friday 11 December 2026 at Parkstad Limburg Stadion.
Where is Roda vs Den Bosch being played?
The match is being played at Parkstad Limburg Stadion.
What competition is Roda vs Den Bosch part of?
Roda vs Den Bosch is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Roda vs Den Bosch?
Our statistical model gives Roda a 45% chance of winning, Den Bosch a 33% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Roda the favourite.
Will both teams score in Roda vs Den Bosch?
Our model estimates a 70% probability that both Roda and Den Bosch will score (BTTS).
Will Roda vs Den Bosch have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%.
What is the head-to-head record between Roda and Den Bosch?
Record (10 meetings): Roda 4W | Draws 4 | Den Bosch 2W.
What form are Roda and Den Bosch in?
Roda (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-W-W-D. Den Bosch (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Roda's attack rating (0.94) and Den Bosch's defence rating (1.18), the model arrives at 1.96 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Den Bosch's attack versus Roda's defence, projects 1.68 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Roda Win
45%
2.23
22%
4.63
33%
2.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
8.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
1 – 2
7.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.96
Roda xG
Total xG
3.64
1.68
Den Bosch xG
2.23
45%
Home win
4.63
22%
Draw
2.99
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
49%
Over 3.5
2.04
51%
Under 3.5
1.96
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
70%
BTTS Yes
1.43
30%
BTTS No
3.32
Clean Sheet
19%
5.36
14%
7.12
Win to Nil
8%
11.93
5%
21.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.6 | 4.4 | 3.7 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 5.1 | 8.6 | 7.2 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 8.5 | 7.1 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 5.5 | 4.7 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.7 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Roda vs Den Bosch?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.8%.
How many goals are Roda and Den Bosch expected to score?
The model projects 1.96 expected goals for Roda and 1.68 for Den Bosch, a combined total of 3.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Roda vs Den Bosch?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Roda's recent record stands at 16W 16D 12L from 44 games, a 1.45 PPG return, with D-L-W-W-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Roda, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Den Bosch, meanwhile, have gone 15W 10D 19L across 44 games — 1.25 PPG, with L-D-L-W-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Den Bosch, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Roda on 1.45 PPG, Den Bosch on 1.25. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Roda have managed 4W 9D 8L from 21 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters. That actually lags their 1.45 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Den Bosch's away record stands at 6W 3D 12L across 21 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Roda are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Den Bosch are on 1.73 scored and 1.93 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Roda have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games; Den Bosch in 77%.
Last 44 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Roda
Early Season
Den Bosch
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Roda and Den Bosch in coming into this match?
Roda have gone 16W 16D 12L in their last 44 games (1.45 PPG), while Den Bosch have gone 15W 10D 19L in their last 44 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Roda at home or Den Bosch away?
Roda's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Roda at home: 1.00 PPG; Den Bosch away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 27 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Oct 2025, when Roda won 6-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Roda's record when hosting Den Bosch specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Roda
4
Draws
2
Den Bosch
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Roda and Den Bosch?
From 10 meetings on record, Roda have won 4, Den Bosch have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Roda and Den Bosch last play each other?
They last met on 27 February 2026, when Den Bosch 2-2 Roda.
Who has won more matches between Roda and Den Bosch?
Roda have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Roda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
Den Bosch are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 95% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Roda at 62%, Den Bosch at 76%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 52% for Roda and 81% for Den Bosch. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 52% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Roda home games / Den Bosch away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Roda play Den Bosch?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Roda's games and 76% of Den Bosch's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Roda vs Den Bosch usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of Roda's matches and 81% of Den Bosch's.
Do Roda and Den Bosch tend to score early?
Roda have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Den Bosch in 95% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.