Roda 1-4 De Graafschap – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Roda at 48% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Roda vs De Graafschap encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 4 as Roda welcome De Graafschap to Parkstad Limburg Stadion. Kick-off is set for Sunday 1 September 2024 at 15:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Roda have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: L L L D D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Roda have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Roda have posted 5W 4D 1L at Parkstad Limburg Stadion — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Roda are significantly better at Parkstad Limburg Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, De Graafschap stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L D W L D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. De Graafschap have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, De Graafschap have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (Roda) versus 1.30 (De Graafschap). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Roda register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, De Graafschap in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 6 previous meetings, Roda have won 3, De Graafschap 1, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Apr 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Roda in-play and half-time data (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 44% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
De Graafschap in-play and half-time data (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Roda 56% versus De Graafschap 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Roda 51% | De Graafschap 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Roda 1.62 xG and De Graafschap 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Roda attack 0.893 / defence 0.826 | De Graafschap attack 0.971 / defence 1.196. League average goals — home 1.521 / away 1.291. Data: 41 Roda games / 41 De Graafschap games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Roda 48% | Draw 31% | De Graafschap 21%. Fair-value odds: Roda 2.08 | Draw 3.23 | De Graafschap 4.76. Roda hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Roda are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Roda offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.66 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 50% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: Roda 60% | De Graafschap 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Roda vs De Graafschap | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Parkstad Limburg Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Sep 2024, 15:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Roda 48% | Draw 31% | De Graafschap 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 55% | xG Roda 1.62 / De Graafschap 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Roda attack 0.893 / def 0.826 | De Graafschap attack 0.971 / def 1.196 | league avg home 1.521 / away 1.291 • Poisson stance: Roda (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
Roda xG
Expected Goals
1.03
De Graafschap xG
55%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Roda vs De Graafschap kick off?
Roda vs De Graafschap kicked off at 15:45 on Sunday 1 September 2024 at Parkstad Limburg Stadion.
What was the final score in Roda vs De Graafschap?
Roda 1 - 4 De Graafschap.
Where is Roda vs De Graafschap being played?
The match is being played at Parkstad Limburg Stadion.
What competition is Roda vs De Graafschap part of?
Roda vs De Graafschap is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Roda vs De Graafschap?
Our statistical model gives Roda a 48% chance of winning, De Graafschap a 21% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Roda the favourite.
Will both teams score in Roda vs De Graafschap?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Roda and De Graafschap will score (BTTS).
Will Roda vs De Graafschap have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Roda and De Graafschap?
Record (6 meetings): Roda 3W | Draws 2 | De Graafschap 1W.
What form are Roda and De Graafschap in?
Roda (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-D-D. De Graafschap (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Roda's attack rating (0.89) and De Graafschap's defence rating (1.20), the model arrives at 1.62 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, De Graafschap's attack versus Roda's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.8%), 2-1 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Roda Win
48%
2.09
31%
3.22
21%
4.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
Roda xG
Total xG
2.66
1.03
De Graafschap xG
2.09
48%
Home win
3.22
31%
Draw
4.77
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
36%
2.82
20%
5.08
Win to Nil
17%
5.87
4%
24.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 7.2 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 11.8 | 6.1 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.6 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 5.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Roda vs De Graafschap?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Roda and De Graafschap expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Roda and 1.03 for De Graafschap, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Roda vs De Graafschap?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Roda's recent record stands at 21W 14D 8L from 43 games, a 1.79 PPG return, with L-L-L-D-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Roda, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
De Graafschap, meanwhile, have gone 20W 8D 15L across 43 games — 1.58 PPG, with L-D-W-L-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for De Graafschap, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Roda on 1.79 PPG, De Graafschap on 1.58. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Roda have managed 14W 5D 2L from 21 games — 2.24 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.79 PPG overall — Roda are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
De Graafschap's away record stands at 8W 3D 10L across 21 trips, a 1.29 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Roda come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Roda are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; De Graafschap are on 1.67 scored and 1.51 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: De Graafschap in 63%.
Last 43 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Roda
Early Season
De Graafschap
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Roda and De Graafschap in coming into this match?
Roda have gone 21W 14D 8L in their last 43 games (1.79 PPG), while De Graafschap have gone 20W 8D 15L in their last 43 (1.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Roda at home or De Graafschap away?
Roda's home record (2.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Roda at home: 2.24 PPG; De Graafschap away: 1.29 PPG.
Have Roda or De Graafschap been keeping clean sheets recently?
Roda have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, De Graafschap in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Roda and De Graafschap runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 12 December 2025, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Roda have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 7 Aug 2021, when Roda won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Roda's record when hosting De Graafschap specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Roda
2
Draws
3
De Graafschap
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Roda and De Graafschap?
From 10 meetings on record, Roda have won 5, De Graafschap have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Roda and De Graafschap last play each other?
They last met on 12 December 2025, when De Graafschap 2-3 Roda.
Who has won more matches between Roda and De Graafschap?
Roda have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Roda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
De Graafschap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Roda 52%, De Graafschap 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Roda and 71% for De Graafschap. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Roda keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Roda home games / De Graafschap away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Roda play De Graafschap?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Roda's games and 67% of De Graafschap's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Roda vs De Graafschap usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Roda's matches and 71% of De Graafschap's.
Do Roda and De Graafschap tend to score early?
Roda have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, De Graafschap in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant De Graafschap run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Roda.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
De Graafschap beat Roda 1-4 at Parkstad Limburg Stadion, Regular Season - 4, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Roda 1.62 xG and De Graafschap 1.03 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. De Graafschap outscored their 1.03 projection by 3.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Roda attack 0.89 / defence 0.83 against De Graafschap attack 0.97 / defence 1.20, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Roda 48% | Draw 31% | De Graafschap 21%, with Roda to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a De Graafschap win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Roda 51%, De Graafschap 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Roda's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
De Graafschap's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Roda 1.79 PPG, De Graafschap 1.58 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the De Graafschap win broke the near-deadlock. Roda (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.95 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 0.90 concession average — a leakier day than usual. De Graafschap (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.48 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.81 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.