PEC Zwolle 4-1 Jong AZ – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates PEC Zwolle at 60% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this PEC Zwolle vs Jong AZ encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 24 sees Jong AZ travel to MAC³PARK Stadion to take on PEC Zwolle. The game is scheduled for Friday 10 February 2023, 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, PEC Zwolle have gone 9W 1D 0L from 10 outings — a 2.80 PPG return. Last five: W W W W D. They are averaging 2.70 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for PEC Zwolle, so this record blends games from this season and last.
PEC Zwolle's home record at MAC³PARK Stadion: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Eerste Divisie appearances (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 2.00 lags behind their overall 2.80 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at MAC³PARK Stadion this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Jong AZ stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W D L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.60. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Jong AZ, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Jong AZ have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
PEC Zwolle are in the better shape of the two on current Eerste Divisie data — 1.30 PPG ahead (2.80 vs 1.50). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for PEC Zwolle, 0 for Jong AZ and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 5.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 12 Sep 2022, ended 3–2 with PEC Zwolle winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
PEC Zwolle trading profile (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Jong AZ trading profile (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PEC Zwolle 46% versus Jong AZ 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PEC Zwolle 47% | Jong AZ 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PEC Zwolle 2.30 xG and Jong AZ 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PEC Zwolle attack 1.223 / defence 1.033 | Jong AZ attack 1.005 / defence 1.124. League average goals — home 1.675 / away 1.265. Data: 23 PEC Zwolle games / 61 Jong AZ games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: PEC Zwolle 60% | Draw 19% | Jong AZ 21%. Fair-value odds: PEC Zwolle 1.67 | Draw 5.26 | Jong AZ 4.76. The model has a clear lean to PEC Zwolle (60%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.62. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.62 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (2.30 / 1.31) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is PEC Zwolle at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.62 combined xG gives a 70% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 66% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: PEC Zwolle 70% | Jong AZ 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PEC Zwolle vs Jong AZ | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: MAC³PARK Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 10 Feb 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PEC Zwolle 60% | Draw 19% | Jong AZ 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% | BTTS 66% | xG PEC Zwolle 2.30 / Jong AZ 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: PEC Zwolle attack 1.223 / def 1.033 | Jong AZ attack 1.005 / def 1.124 | league avg home 1.675 / away 1.265 • Poisson stance: PEC Zwolle (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.30
PEC Zwolle xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Jong AZ xG
66%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PEC Zwolle vs Jong AZ kick off?
PEC Zwolle vs Jong AZ kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 10 February 2023 at MAC³PARK Stadion.
What was the final score in PEC Zwolle vs Jong AZ?
PEC Zwolle 4 - 1 Jong AZ.
Where is PEC Zwolle vs Jong AZ being played?
The match is being played at MAC³PARK Stadion.
What competition is PEC Zwolle vs Jong AZ part of?
PEC Zwolle vs Jong AZ is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win PEC Zwolle vs Jong AZ?
Our statistical model gives PEC Zwolle a 60% chance of winning, Jong AZ a 21% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making PEC Zwolle the favourite.
Will both teams score in PEC Zwolle vs Jong AZ?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both PEC Zwolle and Jong AZ will score (BTTS).
Will PEC Zwolle vs Jong AZ have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%.
What is the head-to-head record between PEC Zwolle and Jong AZ?
Record (1 meetings): PEC Zwolle 1W | Draws 0 | Jong AZ 0W.
What form are PEC Zwolle and Jong AZ in?
PEC Zwolle (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-W-W-D. Jong AZ (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
PEC Zwolle's attacking strength (1.22x league average) is weighed against Jong AZ's defensive record (1.12x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.30. The same calculation in reverse, Jong AZ's attack versus PEC Zwolle's defence, projects 1.31 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 23/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 9.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (9.2%), 3-1 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
PEC Zwolle Win
60%
1.68
19%
5.13
21%
4.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.1%
Draw
3 – 1
7.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.30
PEC Zwolle xG
Total xG
3.62
1.31
Jong AZ xG
1.68
60%
Home win
5.13
19%
Draw
4.77
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
49%
Over 3.5
2.04
51%
Under 3.5
1.96
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.52
34%
BTTS No
2.92
Clean Sheet
27%
3.72
10%
9.99
Win to Nil
16%
6.25
2%
47.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.7 | 3.5 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 8.1 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 9.4 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 7.2 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3.1 | 4.1 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PEC Zwolle vs Jong AZ?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.4%.
How many goals are PEC Zwolle and Jong AZ expected to score?
The model projects 2.30 expected goals for PEC Zwolle and 1.31 for Jong AZ, a combined total of 3.62.
How confident is the prediction model for PEC Zwolle vs Jong AZ?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
PEC Zwolle come into this having played 57 games, going 24W 9D 24L for 1.42 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-D. The sample for PEC Zwolle is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Jong AZ sit at 1.14 PPG from 57 outings (18W 11D 28L), a run that reads L-W-D-L-W across their last five. The sample for Jong AZ is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: PEC Zwolle on 1.42 PPG, Jong AZ on 1.14. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
PEC Zwolle's home form reads 11W 7D 10L across 28 games on their own ground, a 1.43 PPG return.
Away from home, Jong AZ have taken 0.89 points per game from 28 outings (7W 4D 17L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, PEC Zwolle come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
PEC Zwolle are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Jong AZ are on 1.26 scored and 1.44 conceded.
Last 57 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PEC Zwolle
Blended
Jong AZ
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PEC Zwolle and Jong AZ in coming into this match?
PEC Zwolle have gone 24W 9D 24L in their last 57 games (1.42 PPG), while Jong AZ have gone 18W 11D 28L in their last 57 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PEC Zwolle at home or Jong AZ away?
PEC Zwolle's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PEC Zwolle at home: 1.43 PPG; Jong AZ away: 0.89 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between PEC Zwolle and Jong AZ runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
PEC Zwolle
0
Draws
0
Jong AZ
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PEC Zwolle and Jong AZ?
From 2 meetings on record, PEC Zwolle have won 2, Jong AZ have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did PEC Zwolle and Jong AZ last play each other?
They last met on 10 February 2023, when PEC Zwolle 4-1 Jong AZ.
Who has won more matches between PEC Zwolle and Jong AZ?
PEC Zwolle have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
PEC Zwolle are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Jong AZ are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PEC Zwolle 64%, Jong AZ 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (PEC Zwolle) and 54% (Jong AZ).
On the defensive side: Jong AZ in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PEC Zwolle home games / Jong AZ away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PEC Zwolle play Jong AZ?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 64% of PEC Zwolle's recent matches and 43% of Jong AZ's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is PEC Zwolle vs Jong AZ usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of PEC Zwolle's recent games and 54% of Jong AZ's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do PEC Zwolle and Jong AZ tend to score early?
PEC Zwolle have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Jong AZ in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant PEC Zwolle run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Jong AZ.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PEC Zwolle beat Jong AZ 4-1 at MAC³PARK Stadion, Regular Season - 24, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PEC Zwolle 2.30 xG and Jong AZ 1.31 xG, a combined 3.62. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. PEC Zwolle beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PEC Zwolle attack 1.22 / defence 1.03 against Jong AZ attack 1.00 / defence 1.12, drawn from 23/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PEC Zwolle 60% | Draw 19% | Jong AZ 21%, with PEC Zwolle to win its most likely call at 60%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 49% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PEC Zwolle 47%, Jong AZ 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PEC Zwolle's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Jong AZ's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — PEC Zwolle 1.42 PPG, Jong AZ 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the PEC Zwolle win broke the near-deadlock. PEC Zwolle (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.46 average — above their attacking norm. Jong AZ (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.61 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.