PEC Zwolle 1-2 ADO Den Haag – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates PEC Zwolle at 58% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this PEC Zwolle vs ADO Den Haag encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 7 sees ADO Den Haag travel to MAC³PARK Stadion to take on PEC Zwolle. The game is scheduled for Friday 16 September 2022, 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, PEC Zwolle stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. PEC Zwolle have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at MAC³PARK Stadion, PEC Zwolle have gone 3W 4D 3L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.30 lags behind their overall 2.00 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at MAC³PARK Stadion this season.
ADO Den Haag — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W L D D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.90. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. ADO Den Haag have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
ADO Den Haag's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
PEC Zwolle are in the better shape of the two on current Eerste Divisie data — 1.00 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 1.00). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
In-Play Profile
PEC Zwolle in-play tendencies (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
ADO Den Haag in-play tendencies (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PEC Zwolle 46% versus ADO Den Haag 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PEC Zwolle 44% | ADO Den Haag 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PEC Zwolle 2.23 xG and ADO Den Haag 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PEC Zwolle attack 1.163 / defence 1.247 | ADO Den Haag attack 0.788 / defence 1.149. League average goals — home 1.671 / away 1.337. Data: 7 PEC Zwolle games / 45 ADO Den Haag games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: PEC Zwolle 58% | Draw 21% | ADO Den Haag 22%. Fair-value odds: PEC Zwolle 1.72 | Draw 4.76 | ADO Den Haag 4.55. The model has a clear lean to PEC Zwolle (58%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.54. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.54 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (2.23 / 1.31) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, PEC Zwolle are the pick at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.54 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 69% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 66%. Form rates corroborate: PEC Zwolle 90% | ADO Den Haag 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PEC Zwolle vs ADO Den Haag | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: MAC³PARK Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 16 Sep 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PEC Zwolle 58% | Draw 21% | ADO Den Haag 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 66% | xG PEC Zwolle 2.23 / ADO Den Haag 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: PEC Zwolle attack 1.163 / def 1.247 | ADO Den Haag attack 0.788 / def 1.149 | league avg home 1.671 / away 1.337 • Poisson stance: PEC Zwolle (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.23
PEC Zwolle xG
Expected Goals
1.31
ADO Den Haag xG
66%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PEC Zwolle vs ADO Den Haag kick off?
PEC Zwolle vs ADO Den Haag kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 16 September 2022 at MAC³PARK Stadion.
What was the final score in PEC Zwolle vs ADO Den Haag?
PEC Zwolle 1 - 2 ADO Den Haag.
Where is PEC Zwolle vs ADO Den Haag being played?
The match is being played at MAC³PARK Stadion.
What competition is PEC Zwolle vs ADO Den Haag part of?
PEC Zwolle vs ADO Den Haag is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win PEC Zwolle vs ADO Den Haag?
Our statistical model gives PEC Zwolle a 58% chance of winning, ADO Den Haag a 22% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making PEC Zwolle the favourite.
Will both teams score in PEC Zwolle vs ADO Den Haag?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both PEC Zwolle and ADO Den Haag will score (BTTS).
Will PEC Zwolle vs ADO Den Haag have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between PEC Zwolle and ADO Den Haag?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are PEC Zwolle and ADO Den Haag in?
PEC Zwolle (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-W-D-W. ADO Den Haag (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
PEC Zwolle's attacking strength (1.16x league average) is weighed against ADO Den Haag's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.23. The same calculation in reverse, ADO Den Haag's attack versus PEC Zwolle's defence, projects 1.31 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 7/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 9.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
PEC Zwolle Win
58%
1.73
21%
4.86
22%
4.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.5%
Draw
2 – 0
7.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.23
PEC Zwolle xG
Total xG
3.54
1.31
ADO Den Haag xG
1.73
58%
Home win
4.86
21%
Draw
4.65
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.53
34%
BTTS No
2.90
Clean Sheet
27%
3.72
11%
9.32
Win to Nil
16%
6.42
2%
43.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.9 | 3.8 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 8.5 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 9.4 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 7.0 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3.0 | 3.9 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PEC Zwolle vs ADO Den Haag?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.6%.
How many goals are PEC Zwolle and ADO Den Haag expected to score?
The model projects 2.23 expected goals for PEC Zwolle and 1.31 for ADO Den Haag, a combined total of 3.54.
How confident is the prediction model for PEC Zwolle vs ADO Den Haag?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 41 outings, PEC Zwolle have picked up 1.12 PPG on a 13W 7D 21L record — W-W-W-D-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for PEC Zwolle, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
ADO Den Haag's form line: 20W 10D 11L from 41 games, 1.71 PPG, last five L-W-L-D-D. It's still early in the season for ADO Den Haag, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, ADO Den Haag are the form team by 0.59 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against PEC Zwolle.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, PEC Zwolle have posted 1.05 PPG from 20 outings (5W 6D 9L).
On the road, ADO Den Haag have gone 9W 3D 8L from 20 away games — 1.50 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, ADO Den Haag come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
PEC Zwolle are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; ADO Den Haag are on 1.76 scored and 1.46 conceded.
Last 41 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PEC Zwolle
Early Season
ADO Den Haag
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PEC Zwolle and ADO Den Haag in coming into this match?
PEC Zwolle have gone 13W 7D 21L in their last 41 games (1.12 PPG), while ADO Den Haag have gone 20W 10D 11L in their last 41 (1.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PEC Zwolle at home or ADO Den Haag away?
ADO Den Haag's away record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PEC Zwolle at home: 1.05 PPG; ADO Den Haag away: 1.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between PEC Zwolle and ADO Den Haag runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
PEC Zwolle
0
Draws
2
ADO Den Haag
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PEC Zwolle and ADO Den Haag?
From 2 meetings on record, PEC Zwolle have won 0, ADO Den Haag have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did PEC Zwolle and ADO Den Haag last play each other?
They last met on 17 February 2023, when ADO Den Haag 3-1 PEC Zwolle.
Who has won more matches between PEC Zwolle and ADO Den Haag?
ADO Den Haag have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
PEC Zwolle are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
ADO Den Haag are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PEC Zwolle 60%, ADO Den Haag 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (PEC Zwolle) and 60% (ADO Den Haag).
On the defensive side: PEC Zwolle have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PEC Zwolle home games / ADO Den Haag away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PEC Zwolle play ADO Den Haag?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of PEC Zwolle's games and 55% of ADO Den Haag's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is PEC Zwolle vs ADO Den Haag usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of PEC Zwolle's recent games and 60% of ADO Den Haag's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do PEC Zwolle and ADO Den Haag tend to score early?
PEC Zwolle have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, ADO Den Haag in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as ADO Den Haag defy the odds to beat PEC Zwolle 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
ADO Den Haag beat PEC Zwolle 1-2 at MAC³PARK Stadion, Regular Season - 7, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PEC Zwolle 2.23 xG and ADO Den Haag 1.31 xG, a combined 3.54. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. PEC Zwolle fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PEC Zwolle attack 1.16 / defence 1.25 against ADO Den Haag attack 0.79 / defence 1.15, drawn from 7/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PEC Zwolle 58% | Draw 21% | ADO Den Haag 22%, with PEC Zwolle to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a ADO Den Haag win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PEC Zwolle 44%, ADO Den Haag 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PEC Zwolle's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
ADO Den Haag's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, ADO Den Haag arrived the stronger side — 1.71 PPG against 1.12. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.