NAC Breda 1-1 Telstar – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Telstar at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this NAC Breda vs Telstar fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Telstar make the trip to Rat Verlegh Stadion to face NAC Breda in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 14. The match kicks off on Friday 4 November 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
NAC Breda have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L L L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for NAC Breda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
NAC Breda at Rat Verlegh Stadion this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — NAC Breda are significantly better at Rat Verlegh Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Telstar's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 4W 4D 2L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: D W W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Telstar, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, Telstar have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Telstar are 0.50 PPG clear of NAC Breda in recent Eerste Divisie fixtures (1.60 vs 1.10). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — NAC Breda register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Telstar in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for NAC Breda, 0 for Telstar and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.5 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Mar 2022, ended 4–1 with NAC Breda winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
NAC Breda — key trading statistics (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Telstar — key trading statistics (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — NAC Breda 53% versus Telstar 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (NAC Breda 59% | Telstar 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects NAC Breda 0.96 xG and Telstar 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: NAC Breda attack 0.853 / defence 0.955 | Telstar attack 0.899 / defence 0.668. League average goals — home 1.680 / away 1.333. Telstar's defence strength of 0.668 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 51 NAC Breda games / 51 Telstar games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: NAC Breda 30% | Draw 30% | Telstar 40%. Fair-value odds: NAC Breda 3.33 | Draw 3.33 | Telstar 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.10. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.10 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
Both sides post BTTS form rates above 65% but Poisson BTTS probability is only 42% — the model sees a defensive matchup that form results do not yet show.
On the Poisson output, Telstar are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Telstar if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.10 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 35% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. This conflicts with form data: NAC Breda 70% | Telstar 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: NAC Breda vs Telstar | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Rat Verlegh Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 4 Nov 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: NAC Breda 30% | Draw 30% | Telstar 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 42% | xG NAC Breda 0.96 / Telstar 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: NAC Breda attack 0.853 / def 0.955 | Telstar attack 0.899 / def 0.668 | league avg home 1.680 / away 1.333 • Poisson stance: Telstar (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.96
NAC Breda xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Telstar xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does NAC Breda vs Telstar kick off?
NAC Breda vs Telstar kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 4 November 2022 at Rat Verlegh Stadion.
What was the final score in NAC Breda vs Telstar?
NAC Breda 1 - 1 Telstar.
Where is NAC Breda vs Telstar being played?
The match is being played at Rat Verlegh Stadion.
What competition is NAC Breda vs Telstar part of?
NAC Breda vs Telstar is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win NAC Breda vs Telstar?
Our statistical model gives NAC Breda a 30% chance of winning, Telstar a 40% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Telstar the favourite.
Will both teams score in NAC Breda vs Telstar?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both NAC Breda and Telstar will score (BTTS).
Will NAC Breda vs Telstar have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between NAC Breda and Telstar?
Record (2 meetings): NAC Breda 1W | Draws 1 | Telstar 0W.
What form are NAC Breda and Telstar in?
NAC Breda (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Telstar (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates NAC Breda's attack at 0.85x the league average against Telstar's defence at 0.67x — combine the two and it projects 0.96 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Telstar's attack (0.90x) against NAC Breda's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 1.15.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.0%), 0-1 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Telstar Win
30%
3.30
30%
3.36
40%
2.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.96
NAC Breda xG
Total xG
2.10
1.15
Telstar xG
3.30
30%
Home win
3.36
30%
Draw
2.50
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.38
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
32%
3.14
38%
2.60
Win to Nil
10%
10.37
15%
6.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.2 | 14.0 | 8.0 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 13.4 | 7.7 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 6.4 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for NAC Breda vs Telstar?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are NAC Breda and Telstar expected to score?
The model projects 0.96 expected goals for NAC Breda and 1.15 for Telstar, a combined total of 2.10.
How confident is the prediction model for NAC Breda vs Telstar?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 51 outings, NAC Breda have picked up 1.45 PPG on a 21W 11D 19L record — L-L-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for NAC Breda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Telstar's form line: 12W 16D 23L from 51 games, 1.02 PPG, last five D-W-W-D-D. The sample for Telstar is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, NAC Breda are the form team by 0.43 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Telstar.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, NAC Breda have posted 1.84 PPG from 25 outings (13W 7D 5L).
On the road, Telstar have gone 6W 9D 10L from 25 away games — 1.08 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, NAC Breda come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
NAC Breda are averaging 1.51 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Telstar are on 1.20 scored and 1.82 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Telstar in 63%.
Last 51 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
NAC Breda
Blended
Telstar
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are NAC Breda and Telstar in coming into this match?
NAC Breda have gone 21W 11D 19L in their last 51 games (1.45 PPG), while Telstar have gone 12W 16D 23L in their last 51 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — NAC Breda at home or Telstar away?
NAC Breda's home record (1.84 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — NAC Breda at home: 1.84 PPG; Telstar away: 1.08 PPG.
Have NAC Breda or Telstar been keeping clean sheets recently?
NAC Breda have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Telstar in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 27 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Telstar have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: NAC Breda won 1-4 on 14 Mar 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, NAC Breda have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Telstar — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
NAC Breda
3
Draws
3
Telstar
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between NAC Breda and Telstar?
From 8 meetings on record, NAC Breda have won 2, Telstar have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did NAC Breda and Telstar last play each other?
They last met on 27 February 2026, when Telstar 3-0 NAC Breda.
Who has won more matches between NAC Breda and Telstar?
Telstar have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
NAC Breda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Telstar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — NAC Breda 52%, Telstar 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (NAC Breda) and 56% (Telstar).
On the defensive side: NAC Breda keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = NAC Breda home games / Telstar away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when NAC Breda play Telstar?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of NAC Breda's games and 64% of Telstar's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is NAC Breda vs Telstar usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of NAC Breda's recent games and 56% of Telstar's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do NAC Breda and Telstar tend to score early?
NAC Breda have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Telstar in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
NAC Breda and Telstar share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Rat Verlegh Stadion, Regular Season - 14, as NAC Breda and Telstar drew 1-1 in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting NAC Breda 0.96 xG and Telstar 1.15 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of NAC Breda attack 0.85 / defence 0.95 against Telstar attack 0.90 / defence 0.67, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it NAC Breda 30% | Draw 30% | Telstar 40%, with Telstar to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (NAC Breda 59%, Telstar 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
NAC Breda's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Telstar's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, NAC Breda arrived the stronger side — 1.45 PPG against 1.02. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.