NAC Breda 1-2 Emmen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates NAC Breda at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this NAC Breda vs Emmen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 7 as NAC Breda welcome Emmen to Rat Verlegh Stadion. Kick-off is set for Friday 17 September 2021 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, NAC Breda have gone 1W 3D 2L from 6 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: D L W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.67 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 6 outings provides some defensive foundation. NAC Breda have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Emmen stand at 2W 1D 3L from 6 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.17 PPG. Last five: L W L L W. They are scoring at 1.67 per game and conceding 1.17. Emmen have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Emmen's away record: 1W 1D 1L from 3 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (1.33 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (NAC Breda) versus 1.17 (Emmen). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Profile
NAC Breda in-play tendencies (6 games): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Emmen in-play tendencies (6 games): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — NAC Breda 50% versus Emmen 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (NAC Breda 67% | Emmen 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects NAC Breda 1.48 xG and Emmen 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: NAC Breda attack 1.084 / defence 1.046 | Emmen attack 0.746 / defence 0.998. League average goals — home 1.369 / away 1.436. Data: 6 NAC Breda games / 6 Emmen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: NAC Breda 45% | Draw 26% | Emmen 29%. Fair-value odds: NAC Breda 2.22 | Draw 3.85 | Emmen 3.45. NAC Breda hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, NAC Breda are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on NAC Breda offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.60 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: NAC Breda 50% | Emmen 67% BTTS from recent games.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: NAC Breda vs Emmen | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Rat Verlegh Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 17 Sep 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: NAC Breda 45% | Draw 26% | Emmen 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 52% | xG NAC Breda 1.48 / Emmen 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: NAC Breda attack 1.084 / def 1.046 | Emmen attack 0.746 / def 0.998 | league avg home 1.369 / away 1.436 • Poisson stance: NAC Breda (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
NAC Breda xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Emmen xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does NAC Breda vs Emmen kick off?
NAC Breda vs Emmen kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 17 September 2021 at Rat Verlegh Stadion.
What was the final score in NAC Breda vs Emmen?
NAC Breda 1 - 2 Emmen.
Where is NAC Breda vs Emmen being played?
The match is being played at Rat Verlegh Stadion.
What competition is NAC Breda vs Emmen part of?
NAC Breda vs Emmen is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win NAC Breda vs Emmen?
Our statistical model gives NAC Breda a 45% chance of winning, Emmen a 29% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making NAC Breda the favourite.
Will both teams score in NAC Breda vs Emmen?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both NAC Breda and Emmen will score (BTTS).
Will NAC Breda vs Emmen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between NAC Breda and Emmen?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are NAC Breda and Emmen in?
NAC Breda (all comps): 1W-3D-2L in 6 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.67 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-W-D-L. Emmen (all comps): 2W-1D-3L in 6 | 1.17 PPG | GF 1.67 / GA 1.17 | L5 L-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates NAC Breda's attack at 1.08x the league average against Emmen's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 1.48 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Emmen's attack versus NAC Breda's defence, projects 1.12 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 6/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (9.4%), 2-1 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
NAC Breda Win
45%
2.20
26%
3.86
29%
3.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
NAC Breda xG
Total xG
2.60
1.12
Emmen xG
2.20
45%
Home win
3.86
26%
Draw
3.49
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
33%
3.06
23%
4.40
Win to Nil
15%
6.73
7%
15.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 8.3 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 12.3 | 6.9 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.1 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.5 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for NAC Breda vs Emmen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are NAC Breda and Emmen expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for NAC Breda and 1.12 for Emmen, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for NAC Breda vs Emmen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
NAC Breda come into this having played 6 games, going 1W 3D 2L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-D-L. It's still early in the season for NAC Breda, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Emmen sit at 1.17 PPG from 6 outings (2W 1D 3L), a run that reads L-W-L-L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Emmen, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: NAC Breda on 1.00 PPG, Emmen on 1.17. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
The Goals Picture
NAC Breda are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Emmen are on 1.67 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Last 6 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
NAC Breda
Early Season
Emmen
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are NAC Breda and Emmen in coming into this match?
NAC Breda have gone 1W 3D 2L in their last 6 games (1.00 PPG), while Emmen have gone 2W 1D 3L in their last 6 (1.17 PPG).
Have NAC Breda or Emmen been keeping clean sheets recently?
NAC Breda have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Emmen in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between NAC Breda and Emmen runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 May 2024, when NAC Breda won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
NAC Breda's record when hosting Emmen specifically: 0W 1D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
NAC Breda
1
Draws
5
Emmen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between NAC Breda and Emmen?
From 8 meetings on record, NAC Breda have won 2, Emmen have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did NAC Breda and Emmen last play each other?
They last met on 25 May 2024, when Emmen 0-3 NAC Breda.
Who has won more matches between NAC Breda and Emmen?
Emmen have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
NAC Breda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Emmen see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — NAC Breda 50%, Emmen 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (NAC Breda) and 33% (Emmen).
On the defensive side: NAC Breda keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; NAC Breda have failed to score in 33% of games; Emmen in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = NAC Breda home games / Emmen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when NAC Breda play Emmen?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of NAC Breda's recent matches and 50% of Emmen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is NAC Breda vs Emmen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of NAC Breda's recent games and 33% of Emmen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do NAC Breda and Emmen tend to score early?
NAC Breda have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Emmen in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Emmen defy the odds to beat NAC Breda 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Emmen beat NAC Breda 1-2 at Rat Verlegh Stadion, Regular Season - 7, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting NAC Breda 1.48 xG and Emmen 1.12 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Emmen outscored their 1.12 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of NAC Breda attack 1.08 / defence 1.05 against Emmen attack 0.75 / defence 1.00, drawn from 6/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it NAC Breda 45% | Draw 26% | Emmen 29%, with NAC Breda to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Emmen win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (NAC Breda 67%, Emmen 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
NAC Breda's trading profile (6 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Emmen's trading profile (6 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — NAC Breda 1.00 PPG, Emmen 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Emmen win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.