NAC Breda 2-2 ADO Den Haag – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates ADO Den Haag at 44% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this NAC Breda vs ADO Den Haag encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 37 sees ADO Den Haag travel to Rat Verlegh Stadion to take on NAC Breda. The game is scheduled for Friday 3 May 2024, 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, NAC Breda stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L D L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, NAC Breda have posted 4W 2D 4L at Rat Verlegh Stadion — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, ADO Den Haag have recorded 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
ADO Den Haag's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.70 PPG (NAC Breda) versus 1.30 (ADO Den Haag). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. NAC Breda register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, ADO Den Haag in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The previous 7 encounters between these sides heavily favour ADO Den Haag, who boast 6 victories compared to 1 for NAC Breda.
The 7 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.4 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 15 Dec 2023, ended 1–3 with ADO Den Haag winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. ADO Den Haag have won 6 of 7 previous encounters, and at 3.4 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
NAC Breda trading profile (74 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
ADO Den Haag trading profile (74 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — NAC Breda 72% and ADO Den Haag 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (NAC Breda 65% | ADO Den Haag 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects NAC Breda 1.19 xG and ADO Den Haag 1.56 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: NAC Breda attack 0.857 / defence 1.012 | ADO Den Haag attack 1.123 / defence 0.844. League average goals — home 1.643 / away 1.373. Data: 74 NAC Breda games / 74 ADO Den Haag games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: NAC Breda 28% | Draw 28% | ADO Den Haag 44%. Fair-value odds: NAC Breda 3.57 | Draw 3.57 | ADO Den Haag 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, ADO Den Haag are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on ADO Den Haag offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.75 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.4 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: NAC Breda 60% | ADO Den Haag 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: NAC Breda vs ADO Den Haag | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 37 | Venue: Rat Verlegh Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 3 May 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: NAC Breda 28% | Draw 28% | ADO Den Haag 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 56% | xG NAC Breda 1.19 / ADO Den Haag 1.56 • Poisson strength factors: NAC Breda attack 0.857 / def 1.012 | ADO Den Haag attack 1.123 / def 0.844 | league avg home 1.643 / away 1.373 • Poisson stance: ADO Den Haag (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
NAC Breda xG
Expected Goals
1.56
ADO Den Haag xG
56%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does NAC Breda vs ADO Den Haag kick off?
NAC Breda vs ADO Den Haag kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 3 May 2024 at Rat Verlegh Stadion.
What was the final score in NAC Breda vs ADO Den Haag?
NAC Breda 2 - 2 ADO Den Haag.
Where is NAC Breda vs ADO Den Haag being played?
The match is being played at Rat Verlegh Stadion.
What competition is NAC Breda vs ADO Den Haag part of?
NAC Breda vs ADO Den Haag is a Regular Season - 37 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win NAC Breda vs ADO Den Haag?
Our statistical model gives NAC Breda a 28% chance of winning, ADO Den Haag a 44% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making ADO Den Haag the favourite.
Will both teams score in NAC Breda vs ADO Den Haag?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both NAC Breda and ADO Den Haag will score (BTTS).
Will NAC Breda vs ADO Den Haag have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between NAC Breda and ADO Den Haag?
Record (7 meetings): NAC Breda 1W | Draws 0 | ADO Den Haag 6W.
What form are NAC Breda and ADO Den Haag in?
NAC Breda (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-L-D-W. ADO Den Haag (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates NAC Breda's attack at 0.86x the league average against ADO Den Haag's defence at 0.84x — combine the two and it projects 1.19 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, ADO Den Haag's attack versus NAC Breda's defence, projects 1.56 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 74/74 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 0-1 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
ADO Den Haag Win
28%
3.63
28%
3.57
44%
2.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
NAC Breda xG
Total xG
2.75
1.56
ADO Den Haag xG
3.63
28%
Home win
3.57
28%
Draw
2.25
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.77
44%
BTTS No
2.29
Clean Sheet
21%
4.76
30%
3.28
Win to Nil
6%
17.27
14%
7.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 10.0 | 7.8 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 11.9 | 9.3 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 7.1 | 5.5 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.8 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for NAC Breda vs ADO Den Haag?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are NAC Breda and ADO Den Haag expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for NAC Breda and 1.56 for ADO Den Haag, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for NAC Breda vs ADO Den Haag?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
NAC Breda's recent record stands at 32W 14D 28L from 74 games, a 1.49 PPG return, with L-D-L-D-W in the last five.
ADO Den Haag, meanwhile, have gone 30W 23D 21L across 74 games — 1.53 PPG, with L-W-L-D-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: NAC Breda on 1.49 PPG, ADO Den Haag on 1.53. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, NAC Breda have managed 17W 7D 13L from 37 games — 1.57 PPG in front of their own supporters.
ADO Den Haag's away record stands at 16W 11D 10L across 37 trips, a 1.59 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
NAC Breda are averaging 1.68 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; ADO Den Haag are on 1.61 scored and 1.38 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: NAC Breda have seen both teams score in 72% of their recent games; ADO Den Haag in 65%.
Last 74 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
NAC Breda
Current Season
ADO Den Haag
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are NAC Breda and ADO Den Haag in coming into this match?
NAC Breda have gone 32W 14D 28L in their last 74 games (1.49 PPG), while ADO Den Haag have gone 30W 23D 21L in their last 74 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — NAC Breda at home or ADO Den Haag away?
ADO Den Haag's away record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — NAC Breda at home: 1.57 PPG; ADO Den Haag away: 1.59 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Aug 2021, when NAC Breda won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
NAC Breda's record when hosting ADO Den Haag specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
NAC Breda
1
Draws
6
ADO Den Haag
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between NAC Breda and ADO Den Haag?
From 8 meetings on record, NAC Breda have won 1, ADO Den Haag have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did NAC Breda and ADO Den Haag last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2024, when NAC Breda 2-2 ADO Den Haag.
Who has won more matches between NAC Breda and ADO Den Haag?
ADO Den Haag have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
NAC Breda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
ADO Den Haag are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — NAC Breda at 70%, ADO Den Haag at 62%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (NAC Breda) and 57% (ADO Den Haag). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: ADO Den Haag in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = NAC Breda home games / ADO Den Haag away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when NAC Breda play ADO Den Haag?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of NAC Breda's games and 62% of ADO Den Haag's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is NAC Breda vs ADO Den Haag usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of NAC Breda's matches and 57% of ADO Den Haag's.
Do NAC Breda and ADO Den Haag tend to score early?
NAC Breda have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, ADO Den Haag in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
NAC Breda and ADO Den Haag share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Rat Verlegh Stadion, Regular Season - 37, as NAC Breda and ADO Den Haag drew 2-2 in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting NAC Breda 1.19 xG and ADO Den Haag 1.56 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. NAC Breda beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of NAC Breda attack 0.86 / defence 1.01 against ADO Den Haag attack 1.12 / defence 0.84, drawn from 74/74 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it NAC Breda 28% | Draw 28% | ADO Den Haag 44%, with ADO Den Haag to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (NAC Breda 65%, ADO Den Haag 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
NAC Breda's trading profile (74 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did.
ADO Den Haag's trading profile (74 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — NAC Breda 1.49 PPG, ADO Den Haag 1.53 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.