MVV 3-2 Willem II – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates MVV at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this MVV vs Willem II fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
MVV host Willem II at De Geusselt in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 30 September 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
MVV — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 2.00 points per game. Last five: D D L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for MVV, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, MVV have posted 4W 2D 4L at De Geusselt — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.40 lags behind their overall 2.00 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at De Geusselt this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Willem II stand at 5W 4D 1L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D W D W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Willem II, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Willem II's away record: 1W 3D 6L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — MVV at 2.00 PPG versus Willem II's 1.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Trading Patterns
MVV in-play and half-time data (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Willem II in-play and half-time data (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — MVV 62% versus Willem II 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (MVV 64% | Willem II 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects MVV 1.93 xG and Willem II 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: MVV attack 1.203 / defence 0.965 | Willem II attack 0.976 / defence 0.951. League average goals — home 1.683 / away 1.373. Data: 46 MVV games / 8 Willem II games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: MVV 52% | Draw 23% | Willem II 25%. Fair-value odds: MVV 1.92 | Draw 4.35 | Willem II 4.00. MVV hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.22. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.22 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.93 / 1.29) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is MVV at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on MVV offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.22 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: MVV 80% | Willem II 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: MVV vs Willem II | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: De Geusselt • Kick-off: Friday 30 Sep 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: MVV 52% | Draw 23% | Willem II 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 63% | xG MVV 1.93 / Willem II 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: MVV attack 1.203 / def 0.965 | Willem II attack 0.976 / def 0.951 | league avg home 1.683 / away 1.373 • Poisson stance: MVV (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.93
MVV xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Willem II xG
63%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does MVV vs Willem II kick off?
MVV vs Willem II kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 30 September 2022 at De Geusselt.
What was the final score in MVV vs Willem II?
MVV 3 - 2 Willem II.
Where is MVV vs Willem II being played?
The match is being played at De Geusselt.
What competition is MVV vs Willem II part of?
MVV vs Willem II is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win MVV vs Willem II?
Our statistical model gives MVV a 52% chance of winning, Willem II a 25% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making MVV the favourite.
Will both teams score in MVV vs Willem II?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both MVV and Willem II will score (BTTS).
Will MVV vs Willem II have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between MVV and Willem II?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are MVV and Willem II in?
MVV (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-L-W-W. Willem II (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
MVV's attacking strength (1.20x league average) is weighed against Willem II's defensive record (0.95x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.93. The same calculation in reverse, Willem II's attack versus MVV's defence, projects 1.29 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
MVV Win
52%
1.94
23%
4.26
25%
4.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
7.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.93
MVV xG
Total xG
3.22
1.29
Willem II xG
1.94
52%
Home win
4.26
23%
Draw
4.00
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.60
37%
BTTS No
2.68
Clean Sheet
27%
3.64
15%
6.87
Win to Nil
14%
7.07
4%
27.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 5.2 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 10.0 | 6.4 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 9.6 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 6.2 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 3.0 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for MVV vs Willem II?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are MVV and Willem II expected to score?
The model projects 1.93 expected goals for MVV and 1.29 for Willem II, a combined total of 3.22.
How confident is the prediction model for MVV vs Willem II?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
MVV's recent record stands at 14W 6D 22L from 42 games, a 1.14 PPG return, with D-D-L-W-W in the last five. The sample for MVV is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Willem II, meanwhile, have gone 13W 9D 20L across 42 games — 1.14 PPG, with D-W-D-W-W in their last five. The sample for Willem II is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: MVV on 1.14 PPG, Willem II on 1.14. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, MVV have managed 7W 4D 10L from 21 games — 1.19 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Willem II's away record stands at 3W 5D 13L across 21 trips, a 0.67 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.14 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Willem II's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, MVV come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
MVV are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game recently; Willem II are on 1.02 scored and 1.52 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: MVV have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 42 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
MVV
Blended
Willem II
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are MVV and Willem II in coming into this match?
MVV have gone 14W 6D 22L in their last 42 games (1.14 PPG), while Willem II have gone 13W 9D 20L in their last 42 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — MVV at home or Willem II away?
MVV's home record (1.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — MVV at home: 1.19 PPG; Willem II away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 22 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Mar 2026, when Willem II won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
MVV's record when hosting Willem II specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
MVV
2
Draws
3
Willem II
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between MVV and Willem II?
From 6 meetings on record, MVV have won 1, Willem II have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did MVV and Willem II last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2026, when MVV 0-5 Willem II.
Who has won more matches between MVV and Willem II?
Willem II have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
MVV are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Willem II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — MVV 62%, Willem II 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (MVV) and 57% (Willem II). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Willem II in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = MVV home games / Willem II away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when MVV play Willem II?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of MVV's games and 52% of Willem II's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is MVV vs Willem II usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of MVV's matches and 57% of Willem II's.
Do MVV and Willem II tend to score early?
MVV have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Willem II in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as MVV edge out Willem II 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
MVV beat Willem II 3-2 at De Geusselt, Regular Season - 9, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting MVV 1.93 xG and Willem II 1.29 xG, a combined 3.22. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. MVV beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of MVV attack 1.20 / defence 0.96 against Willem II attack 0.98 / defence 0.95, drawn from 46/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it MVV 52% | Draw 23% | Willem II 25%, with MVV to win its most likely call at 52%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (MVV 64%, Willem II 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
MVV's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Willem II's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — MVV 1.14 PPG, Willem II 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the MVV win broke the near-deadlock. MVV (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.38 average — above their attacking norm. Willem II (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.95 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.