MVV 1-1 Roda – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Roda at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this MVV vs Roda fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
MVV and Roda meet at De Geusselt in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 13. This fixture gets under way on Monday 29 November 2021 at 12:00 UTC.
Current Form
MVV's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 4W 0D 6L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L W L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for MVV, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at De Geusselt, MVV have gone 4W 0D 4L this season (8 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.88 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 62% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Roda (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: L W D L D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.10. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Roda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Roda have gone 4W 1D 2L from 7 away fixtures this term (1.86 PPG). They are averaging 2.14 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 57% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.20 vs 1.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading
MVV half-time and goal-timing data (16 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Roda half-time and goal-timing data (16 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 86% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — MVV 44% versus Roda 56%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (MVV 62% | Roda 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects MVV 1.17 xG and Roda 1.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: MVV attack 0.885 / defence 1.333 | Roda attack 0.986 / defence 1.098. League average goals — home 1.205 / away 1.509. Data: 16 MVV games / 16 Roda games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: MVV 22% | Draw 22% | Roda 56%. Fair-value odds: MVV 4.55 | Draw 4.55 | Roda 1.79. The model has a clear lean to Roda (56%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.15. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.15 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.17 / 1.98) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Roda at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.15 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: MVV 62% | Roda 57% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: MVV vs Roda | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: De Geusselt • Kick-off: Monday 29 Nov 2021, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: MVV 22% | Draw 22% | Roda 56% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 60% | xG MVV 1.17 / Roda 1.98 • Poisson strength factors: MVV attack 0.885 / def 1.333 | Roda attack 0.986 / def 1.098 | league avg home 1.205 / away 1.509 • Poisson stance: Roda (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
MVV xG
Expected Goals
1.98
Roda xG
60%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does MVV vs Roda kick off?
MVV vs Roda kicked off at 12:00 on Monday 29 November 2021 at De Geusselt.
What was the final score in MVV vs Roda?
MVV 1 - 1 Roda.
Where is MVV vs Roda being played?
The match is being played at De Geusselt.
What competition is MVV vs Roda part of?
MVV vs Roda is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win MVV vs Roda?
Our statistical model gives MVV a 22% chance of winning, Roda a 56% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Roda the favourite.
Will both teams score in MVV vs Roda?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both MVV and Roda will score (BTTS).
Will MVV vs Roda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between MVV and Roda?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are MVV and Roda in?
MVV (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-L-W-L. Roda (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from MVV's attack rating (0.89) and Roda's defence rating (1.10), the model arrives at 1.17 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Roda's attack (0.99x) against MVV's defence (1.33x) — and the away total comes out at 1.98.
These ratings are built from 16/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.8%), 0-2 (8.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Roda Win
22%
4.52
22%
4.62
56%
1.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
0 – 1
8.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
MVV xG
Total xG
3.15
1.98
Roda xG
4.52
22%
Home win
4.62
22%
Draw
1.78
56%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.68
40%
BTTS No
2.47
Clean Sheet
14%
7.26
31%
3.23
Win to Nil
3%
32.83
17%
5.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 8.5 | 8.4 | 5.5 | 2.7 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 5.0 | 9.9 | 9.8 | 6.5 | 3.2 | 1.3 |
| 2 | 2.9 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for MVV vs Roda?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are MVV and Roda expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for MVV and 1.98 for Roda, a combined total of 3.15.
How confident is the prediction model for MVV vs Roda?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
MVV come into this having played 16 games, going 7W 0D 9L for 1.31 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-W-L. The sample for MVV is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Roda sit at 1.44 PPG from 16 outings (6W 5D 5L), a run that reads L-W-D-L-D across their last five. The sample for Roda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.31 PPG for MVV against 1.44 for Roda. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
MVV's home form reads 4W 0D 3L across 7 games on their own ground, a 1.71 PPG return.
Away from home, Roda have taken 1.86 points per game from 7 outings (4W 1D 2L). That's actually stronger than their 1.44 PPG overall record — Roda travel well.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
MVV are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 2.19 conceded per game recently; Roda are on 1.75 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Defensively: Roda in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 16 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
MVV
Blended
Roda
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are MVV and Roda in coming into this match?
MVV have gone 7W 0D 9L in their last 16 games (1.31 PPG), while Roda have gone 6W 5D 5L in their last 16 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — MVV at home or Roda away?
Roda's away record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — MVV at home: 1.71 PPG; Roda away: 1.86 PPG.
Have MVV or Roda been keeping clean sheets recently?
MVV have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Roda in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 22 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Roda won 0-3 on 17 Mar 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, MVV have gone 1W 3D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Roda — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
MVV
3
Draws
6
Roda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between MVV and Roda?
From 10 meetings on record, MVV have won 1, Roda have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did MVV and Roda last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2026, when Roda 2-0 MVV.
Who has won more matches between MVV and Roda?
Roda have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
MVV are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time.
Roda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — MVV 57%, Roda 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for MVV and 86% for Roda. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = MVV home games / Roda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when MVV play Roda?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of MVV's games and 57% of Roda's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is MVV vs Roda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of MVV's matches and 86% of Roda's.
Do MVV and Roda tend to score early?
MVV have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Roda in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
MVV and Roda share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at De Geusselt, Regular Season - 13, as MVV and Roda drew 1-1 in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting MVV 1.17 xG and Roda 1.98 xG, a combined 3.15. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Roda landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of MVV attack 0.89 / defence 1.33 against Roda attack 0.99 / defence 1.10, drawn from 16/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it MVV 22% | Draw 22% | Roda 56%, with Roda to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (MVV 62%, Roda 69%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
MVV's trading profile (16 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Roda's trading profile (16 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — MVV 1.31 PPG, Roda 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Roda (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.14 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.