MVV 1-2 Jong PSV U21 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates MVV at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this MVV vs Jong PSV U21 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
MVV host Jong PSV U21 at De Geusselt in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 26 November 2021 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, MVV stand at 4W 0D 6L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L W L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for MVV, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, MVV have posted 4W 0D 3L at De Geusselt — 1.71 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.71 goals scored and 1.86 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.71 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — MVV are significantly better at De Geusselt than their overall form suggests.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Jong PSV U21 have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W W D L D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.70. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Jong PSV U21, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Jong PSV U21 have gone 1W 2D 4L from 7 away fixtures this term (0.71 PPG). Away from home they average 1.29 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — MVV at 1.20 PPG versus Jong PSV U21's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Profile
MVV in-play tendencies (15 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Jong PSV U21 in-play tendencies (15 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — MVV 40% versus Jong PSV U21 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (MVV 60% | Jong PSV U21 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects MVV 1.71 xG and Jong PSV U21 1.54 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: MVV attack 0.948 / defence 1.266 | Jong PSV U21 attack 0.784 / defence 1.476. League average goals — home 1.220 / away 1.548. Jong PSV U21 bring a strong defensive rating of 1.476 — this is suppressing MVV's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 15 MVV games / 16 Jong PSV U21 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: MVV 42% | Draw 23% | Jong PSV U21 35%. Fair-value odds: MVV 2.38 | Draw 4.35 | Jong PSV U21 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.25. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.25 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.71 / 1.54) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, MVV are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on MVV offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.25 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 63% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: MVV 57% | Jong PSV U21 57% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: MVV vs Jong PSV U21 | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: De Geusselt • Kick-off: Friday 26 Nov 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: MVV 42% | Draw 23% | Jong PSV U21 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 64% | xG MVV 1.71 / Jong PSV U21 1.54 • Poisson strength factors: MVV attack 0.948 / def 1.266 | Jong PSV U21 attack 0.784 / def 1.476 | league avg home 1.220 / away 1.548 • Poisson stance: MVV (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.71
MVV xG
Expected Goals
1.54
Jong PSV U21 xG
64%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does MVV vs Jong PSV U21 kick off?
MVV vs Jong PSV U21 kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 26 November 2021 at De Geusselt.
What was the final score in MVV vs Jong PSV U21?
MVV 1 - 2 Jong PSV U21.
Where is MVV vs Jong PSV U21 being played?
The match is being played at De Geusselt.
What competition is MVV vs Jong PSV U21 part of?
MVV vs Jong PSV U21 is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win MVV vs Jong PSV U21?
Our statistical model gives MVV a 42% chance of winning, Jong PSV U21 a 35% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making MVV the favourite.
Will both teams score in MVV vs Jong PSV U21?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both MVV and Jong PSV U21 will score (BTTS).
Will MVV vs Jong PSV U21 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between MVV and Jong PSV U21?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are MVV and Jong PSV U21 in?
MVV (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.30 | L5 W-L-W-L-W. Jong PSV U21 (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-W-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from MVV's attack rating (0.95) and Jong PSV U21's defence rating (1.48), the model arrives at 1.71 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Jong PSV U21's attack versus MVV's defence, projects 1.54 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 15/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
MVV Win
42%
2.38
23%
4.32
35%
2.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
1 – 2
7.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.71
MVV xG
Total xG
3.25
1.54
Jong PSV U21 xG
2.38
42%
Home win
4.32
23%
Draw
2.87
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.80
Clean Sheet
22%
4.65
18%
5.52
Win to Nil
9%
11.06
6%
15.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 6.0 | 4.6 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 10.2 | 7.9 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.7 | 6.7 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 5.0 | 3.8 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for MVV vs Jong PSV U21?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are MVV and Jong PSV U21 expected to score?
The model projects 1.71 expected goals for MVV and 1.54 for Jong PSV U21, a combined total of 3.25.
How confident is the prediction model for MVV vs Jong PSV U21?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
MVV's recent record stands at 7W 0D 8L from 15 games, a 1.40 PPG return, with W-L-W-L-W in the last five. The sample for MVV is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Jong PSV U21, meanwhile, have gone 5W 3D 7L across 15 games — 1.20 PPG, with W-W-D-L-D in their last five. The sample for Jong PSV U21 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: MVV on 1.40 PPG, Jong PSV U21 on 1.20. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, MVV have managed 4W 0D 2L from 6 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.40 PPG overall — MVV are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Jong PSV U21's away record stands at 1W 1D 4L across 6 trips, a 0.67 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.20 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Jong PSV U21's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, MVV come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
MVV are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game recently; Jong PSV U21 are on 1.47 scored and 1.60 conceded.
Last 15 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
MVV
Blended
Jong PSV U21
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are MVV and Jong PSV U21 in coming into this match?
MVV have gone 7W 0D 8L in their last 15 games (1.40 PPG), while Jong PSV U21 have gone 5W 3D 7L in their last 15 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — MVV at home or Jong PSV U21 away?
MVV's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — MVV at home: 2.00 PPG; Jong PSV U21 away: 0.67 PPG.
Have MVV or Jong PSV U21 been keeping clean sheets recently?
MVV have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Jong PSV U21 in 13%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 6 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
MVV's record when hosting Jong PSV U21 specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
MVV
4
Draws
2
Jong PSV U21
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between MVV and Jong PSV U21?
From 10 meetings on record, MVV have won 4, Jong PSV U21 have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did MVV and Jong PSV U21 last play each other?
They last met on 6 February 2026, when MVV 2-1 Jong PSV U21.
Who has won more matches between MVV and Jong PSV U21?
MVV have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
MVV are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Jong PSV U21 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — MVV 50%, Jong PSV U21 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for MVV and 67% for Jong PSV U21. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: MVV keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Jong PSV U21 in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = MVV home games / Jong PSV U21 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when MVV play Jong PSV U21?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of MVV's recent matches and 50% of Jong PSV U21's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is MVV vs Jong PSV U21 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of MVV's matches and 67% of Jong PSV U21's.
Do MVV and Jong PSV U21 tend to score early?
MVV have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Jong PSV U21 in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Jong PSV U21 defy the odds to beat MVV 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jong PSV U21 beat MVV 1-2 at De Geusselt, Regular Season - 17, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting MVV 1.71 xG and Jong PSV U21 1.54 xG, a combined 3.25. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of MVV attack 0.95 / defence 1.27 against Jong PSV U21 attack 0.78 / defence 1.48, drawn from 15/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it MVV 42% | Draw 23% | Jong PSV U21 35%, with MVV to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Jong PSV U21 win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (MVV 60%, Jong PSV U21 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
MVV's trading profile (15 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Jong PSV U21's trading profile (15 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — MVV 1.40 PPG, Jong PSV U21 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jong PSV U21 win broke the near-deadlock. MVV (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.83 scoring average — below par going forward. Jong PSV U21 (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.17 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.