MVV 1-3 Jong AZ – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates MVV at 62% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this MVV vs Jong AZ encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
De Geusselt plays host to MVV versus Jong AZ in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 35. Kick-off: Friday 28 April 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
MVV have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 6W 0D 4L. Last five: L W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, MVV have posted 7W 1D 2L at De Geusselt — 2.20 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans.
Jong AZ's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: D L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Jong AZ's away record: 2W 1D 7L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 0.90 in MVV's favour (1.80 vs 0.90) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: MVV 1W, Jong AZ 2W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.3 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Aug 2022, ended 1–3 with Jong AZ winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
MVV — key trading statistics (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Jong AZ — key trading statistics (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — MVV 61% versus Jong AZ 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (MVV 65% | Jong AZ 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects MVV 2.15 xG and Jong AZ 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: MVV attack 1.089 / defence 0.980 | Jong AZ attack 0.834 / defence 1.134. League average goals — home 1.741 / away 1.298. Data: 72 MVV games / 72 Jong AZ games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: MVV 62% | Draw 20% | Jong AZ 18%. Fair-value odds: MVV 1.61 | Draw 5.00 | Jong AZ 5.56. The model has a clear lean to MVV (62%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.21. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.21 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is MVV at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.21 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 62% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: MVV 50% | Jong AZ 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: MVV vs Jong AZ | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: De Geusselt • Kick-off: Friday 28 Apr 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: MVV 62% | Draw 20% | Jong AZ 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 58% | xG MVV 2.15 / Jong AZ 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: MVV attack 1.089 / def 0.980 | Jong AZ attack 0.834 / def 1.134 | league avg home 1.741 / away 1.298 • Poisson stance: MVV (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.15
MVV xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Jong AZ xG
58%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does MVV vs Jong AZ kick off?
MVV vs Jong AZ kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 28 April 2023 at De Geusselt.
What was the final score in MVV vs Jong AZ?
MVV 1 - 3 Jong AZ.
Where is MVV vs Jong AZ being played?
The match is being played at De Geusselt.
What competition is MVV vs Jong AZ part of?
MVV vs Jong AZ is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win MVV vs Jong AZ?
Our statistical model gives MVV a 62% chance of winning, Jong AZ a 18% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making MVV the favourite.
Will both teams score in MVV vs Jong AZ?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both MVV and Jong AZ will score (BTTS).
Will MVV vs Jong AZ have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between MVV and Jong AZ?
Record (3 meetings): MVV 1W | Draws 0 | Jong AZ 2W.
What form are MVV and Jong AZ in?
MVV (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-W-W-W. Jong AZ (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates MVV's attack at 1.09x the league average against Jong AZ's defence at 1.13x — combine the two and it projects 2.15 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Jong AZ's attack (0.83x) against MVV's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.06.
These ratings are built from 72/72 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
MVV Win
62%
1.61
20%
5.00
18%
5.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
9.3%
Home win
1 – 1
9.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.15
MVV xG
Total xG
3.21
1.06
Jong AZ xG
1.61
62%
Home win
5.00
20%
Draw
5.62
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.37
Clean Sheet
35%
2.89
12%
8.58
Win to Nil
22%
4.65
2%
48.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 4.3 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 8.7 | 9.2 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.9 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.7 | 7.1 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.6 | 3.8 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for MVV vs Jong AZ?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.4%.
How many goals are MVV and Jong AZ expected to score?
The model projects 2.15 expected goals for MVV and 1.06 for Jong AZ, a combined total of 3.21.
How confident is the prediction model for MVV vs Jong AZ?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
MVV come into this having played 72 games, going 29W 9D 34L for 1.33 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-W-W.
On the other side, Jong AZ sit at 1.19 PPG from 72 outings (24W 14D 34L), a run that reads D-L-L-W-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.33 PPG for MVV against 1.19 for Jong AZ. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
MVV's home form reads 17W 6D 13L across 36 games on their own ground, a 1.58 PPG return.
Away from home, Jong AZ have taken 0.89 points per game from 36 outings (9W 5D 22L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, MVV come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
MVV are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.85 conceded per game recently; Jong AZ are on 1.29 scored and 1.43 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: MVV have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 72 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
MVV
Current Season
Jong AZ
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are MVV and Jong AZ in coming into this match?
MVV have gone 29W 9D 34L in their last 72 games (1.33 PPG), while Jong AZ have gone 24W 14D 34L in their last 72 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — MVV at home or Jong AZ away?
MVV's home record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — MVV at home: 1.58 PPG; Jong AZ away: 0.89 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 16 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: MVV won 4-0 on 1 Dec 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, MVV have gone 1W 0D 4L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Jong AZ — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
MVV
1
Draws
5
Jong AZ
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between MVV and Jong AZ?
From 10 meetings on record, MVV have won 4, Jong AZ have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did MVV and Jong AZ last play each other?
They last met on 16 March 2026, when Jong AZ 1-1 MVV.
Who has won more matches between MVV and Jong AZ?
Jong AZ have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
MVV are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Jong AZ are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — MVV 64%, Jong AZ 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (MVV) and 53% (Jong AZ). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 28% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Jong AZ in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = MVV home games / Jong AZ away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when MVV play Jong AZ?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 64% of MVV's recent matches and 44% of Jong AZ's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is MVV vs Jong AZ usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of MVV's matches and 53% of Jong AZ's.
Do MVV and Jong AZ tend to score early?
MVV have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Jong AZ in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Jong AZ cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over MVV.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jong AZ beat MVV 1-3 at De Geusselt, Regular Season - 35, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting MVV 2.15 xG and Jong AZ 1.06 xG, a combined 3.21. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. MVV fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Jong AZ outscored their 1.06 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of MVV attack 1.09 / defence 0.98 against Jong AZ attack 0.83 / defence 1.13, drawn from 72/72 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it MVV 62% | Draw 20% | Jong AZ 18%, with MVV to win its most likely call at 62%. Instead the game produced a Jong AZ win, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (MVV 65%, Jong AZ 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
MVV's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Jong AZ's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — MVV 1.33 PPG, Jong AZ 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jong AZ win broke the near-deadlock. MVV (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.56 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Jong AZ (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.06 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.