MVV 2-2 FC Volendam – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates MVV at 55% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this MVV vs FC Volendam encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
MVV and FC Volendam meet at De Geusselt in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 6. This fixture gets under way on Friday 13 September 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
MVV's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: L D D W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. MVV have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
MVV at De Geusselt this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans.
FC Volendam have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 2W 0D 8L. Last five: L L L L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.70. Conceding 2.70 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. FC Volendam have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
FC Volendam away from home this season: 0W 4D 6L from 10 away games — 0.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form favours the hosts. MVV's 1.50 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of FC Volendam's 0.60 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — MVV lead 0W to 2W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 21 Jan 2022, ended 0–1 with FC Volendam winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
MVV goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
FC Volendam goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 79% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 53%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — MVV 53% versus FC Volendam 63%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (MVV 63% | FC Volendam 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects MVV 2.22 xG and FC Volendam 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: MVV attack 1.045 / defence 1.036 | FC Volendam attack 0.978 / defence 1.369. League average goals — home 1.551 / away 1.300. FC Volendam bring a strong defensive rating of 1.369 — this is suppressing MVV's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 43 MVV games / 4 FC Volendam games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: MVV 55% | Draw 25% | FC Volendam 20%. Fair-value odds: MVV 1.82 | Draw 4.00 | FC Volendam 5.00. The model has a clear lean to MVV (55%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.54. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.54 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (2.22 / 1.32) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates MVV as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.54 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 69% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 68% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: MVV 50% | FC Volendam 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: MVV vs FC Volendam | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: De Geusselt • Kick-off: Friday 13 Sep 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: MVV 55% | Draw 25% | FC Volendam 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 68% | xG MVV 2.22 / FC Volendam 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: MVV attack 1.045 / def 1.036 | FC Volendam attack 0.978 / def 1.369 | league avg home 1.551 / away 1.300 • Poisson stance: MVV (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.22
MVV xG
Expected Goals
1.32
FC Volendam xG
68%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does MVV vs FC Volendam kick off?
MVV vs FC Volendam kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 13 September 2024 at De Geusselt.
What was the final score in MVV vs FC Volendam?
MVV 2 - 2 FC Volendam.
Where is MVV vs FC Volendam being played?
The match is being played at De Geusselt.
What competition is MVV vs FC Volendam part of?
MVV vs FC Volendam is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win MVV vs FC Volendam?
Our statistical model gives MVV a 55% chance of winning, FC Volendam a 20% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making MVV the favourite.
Will both teams score in MVV vs FC Volendam?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both MVV and FC Volendam will score (BTTS).
Will MVV vs FC Volendam have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between MVV and FC Volendam?
Record (2 meetings): MVV 0W | Draws 0 | FC Volendam 2W.
What form are MVV and FC Volendam in?
MVV (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-D-W-L. FC Volendam (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.70 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
MVV's attacking strength (1.04x league average) is weighed against FC Volendam's defensive record (1.37x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.22. Flip it around — FC Volendam's attack (0.98x) against MVV's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 1.32.
These ratings are built from 43/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 9.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
MVV Win
55%
1.80
25%
4.04
20%
5.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.5%
Draw
2 – 0
7.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.22
MVV xG
Total xG
3.54
1.32
FC Volendam xG
1.80
55%
Home win
4.04
25%
Draw
5.07
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.48
32%
BTTS No
3.09
Clean Sheet
27%
3.74
11%
9.19
Win to Nil
15%
6.73
2%
46.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.9 | 3.8 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 8.5 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 9.4 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 7.0 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.9 | 3.9 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for MVV vs FC Volendam?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.6%.
How many goals are MVV and FC Volendam expected to score?
The model projects 2.22 expected goals for MVV and 1.32 for FC Volendam, a combined total of 3.54.
How confident is the prediction model for MVV vs FC Volendam?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
MVV's recent record stands at 15W 9D 14L from 38 games, a 1.42 PPG return, with L-D-D-W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for MVV, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
FC Volendam, meanwhile, have gone 5W 7D 26L across 38 games — 0.58 PPG, with L-L-L-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for FC Volendam, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours MVV by 0.84 — a real, if not enormous, edge over FC Volendam heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, MVV have managed 8W 5D 6L from 19 games — 1.53 PPG in front of their own supporters.
FC Volendam's away record stands at 1W 5D 13L across 19 trips, a 0.42 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, MVV come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
MVV are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; FC Volendam are on 1.11 scored and 2.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Volendam in 63%.
Last 38 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
MVV
Early Season
FC Volendam
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are MVV and FC Volendam in coming into this match?
MVV have gone 15W 9D 14L in their last 38 games (1.42 PPG), while FC Volendam have gone 5W 7D 26L in their last 38 (0.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — MVV at home or FC Volendam away?
MVV's home record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — MVV at home: 1.53 PPG; FC Volendam away: 0.42 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 24 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FC Volendam won 5-0 on 27 Aug 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, MVV have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against FC Volendam — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
MVV
1
Draws
3
FC Volendam
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between MVV and FC Volendam?
From 4 meetings on record, MVV have won 0, FC Volendam have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did MVV and FC Volendam last play each other?
They last met on 24 January 2025, when FC Volendam 3-1 MVV.
Who has won more matches between MVV and FC Volendam?
FC Volendam have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
MVV are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
FC Volendam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — MVV 47%, FC Volendam 79% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 53% for MVV and 68% for FC Volendam. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 47% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: MVV keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = MVV home games / FC Volendam away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when MVV play FC Volendam?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 47% of MVV's games and 79% of FC Volendam's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is MVV vs FC Volendam usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of MVV's matches and 68% of FC Volendam's.
Do MVV and FC Volendam tend to score early?
MVV have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, FC Volendam in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
MVV and FC Volendam share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at De Geusselt, Regular Season - 6, as MVV and FC Volendam drew 2-2 in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting MVV 2.22 xG and FC Volendam 1.32 xG, a combined 3.54. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of MVV attack 1.04 / defence 1.04 against FC Volendam attack 0.98 / defence 1.37, drawn from 43/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it MVV 55% | Draw 25% | FC Volendam 20%, with MVV to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (MVV 63%, FC Volendam 68%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
MVV's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
FC Volendam's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, MVV arrived the stronger side — 1.42 PPG against 0.58. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. FC Volendam (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.16 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.