MVV vs De Graafschap – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates MVV at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this MVV vs De Graafschap fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 31 as MVV welcome De Graafschap to De Geusselt. Kick-off is set for Saturday 20 March 2027 at 15:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, MVV stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for MVV, so this record blends games from this season and last.
MVV's home record at De Geusselt: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Eerste Divisie appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, De Graafschap have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for De Graafschap, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, De Graafschap have posted 2W 4D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (MVV) versus 1.10 (De Graafschap). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for MVV, 4 for De Graafschap and 4 shared spoils from 10 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 10 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 2.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 27 Feb 2026, ended 3–3 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
MVV in-play tendencies (49 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%; they fail to score in 37% of games.
De Graafschap in-play tendencies (49 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 51%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — MVV 55% and De Graafschap 74% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (MVV 61% | De Graafschap 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects MVV 1.46 xG and De Graafschap 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: MVV attack 0.761 / defence 1.024 | De Graafschap attack 0.986 / defence 1.020. League average goals — home 1.884 / away 1.433. MVV's attack strength of 0.761 is below the league average — the 1.46 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 48 MVV games / 48 De Graafschap games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: MVV 38% | Draw 25% | De Graafschap 37%. Fair-value odds: MVV 2.63 | Draw 4.00 | De Graafschap 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, MVV are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on MVV offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.91 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: MVV 40% | De Graafschap 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: MVV vs De Graafschap | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: De Geusselt • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Mar 2027, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: MVV 38% | Draw 25% | De Graafschap 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 59% | xG MVV 1.46 / De Graafschap 1.45 • Poisson strength factors: MVV attack 0.761 / def 1.024 | De Graafschap attack 0.986 / def 1.020 | league avg home 1.884 / away 1.433 • Poisson stance: MVV (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
MVV xG
Expected Goals
1.45
De Graafschap xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does MVV vs De Graafschap kick off?
MVV vs De Graafschap is scheduled to kick off at 15:30 on Saturday 20 March 2027 at De Geusselt.
Where is MVV vs De Graafschap being played?
The match is being played at De Geusselt.
What competition is MVV vs De Graafschap part of?
MVV vs De Graafschap is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win MVV vs De Graafschap?
Our statistical model gives MVV a 38% chance of winning, De Graafschap a 37% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making MVV the favourite.
Will both teams score in MVV vs De Graafschap?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both MVV and De Graafschap will score (BTTS).
Will MVV vs De Graafschap have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between MVV and De Graafschap?
Record (10 meetings): MVV 2W | Draws 4 | De Graafschap 4W.
What form are MVV and De Graafschap in?
MVV (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-W-L-L-L. De Graafschap (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.30 | L5 W-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates MVV's attack at 0.76x the league average against De Graafschap's defence at 1.02x — combine the two and it projects 1.46 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, De Graafschap's attack versus MVV's defence, projects 1.45 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.4%), 1-2 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
MVV Win
38%
2.63
25%
4.04
37%
2.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.4%
Home win
1 – 2
8.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
MVV xG
Total xG
2.91
1.45
De Graafschap xG
2.63
38%
Home win
4.04
25%
Draw
2.68
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.42
Clean Sheet
24%
4.25
23%
4.31
Win to Nil
9%
11.19
9%
11.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 7.9 | 5.7 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 11.5 | 8.3 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.4 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 4.1 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for MVV vs De Graafschap?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are MVV and De Graafschap expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for MVV and 1.45 for De Graafschap, a combined total of 2.91.
How confident is the prediction model for MVV vs De Graafschap?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 49 outings, MVV have picked up 1.10 PPG on a 14W 12D 23L record — L-W-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for MVV is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
De Graafschap's form line: 20W 12D 17L from 49 games, 1.47 PPG, last five W-L-W-D-W. The sample for De Graafschap is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: MVV on 1.10 PPG, De Graafschap on 1.47. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, MVV have posted 1.32 PPG from 25 outings (9W 6D 10L).
On the road, De Graafschap have gone 9W 8D 8L from 25 away games — 1.40 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
MVV are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; De Graafschap are on 1.78 scored and 1.71 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: De Graafschap in 73%.
Last 49 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
MVV
Blended
De Graafschap
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are MVV and De Graafschap in coming into this match?
MVV have gone 14W 12D 23L in their last 49 games (1.10 PPG), while De Graafschap have gone 20W 12D 17L in their last 49 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — MVV at home or De Graafschap away?
De Graafschap's away record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — MVV at home: 1.32 PPG; De Graafschap away: 1.40 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 27 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Apr 2024, when De Graafschap won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
MVV's record when hosting De Graafschap specifically: 0W 3D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
MVV
4
Draws
4
De Graafschap
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between MVV and De Graafschap?
From 10 meetings on record, MVV have won 2, De Graafschap have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did MVV and De Graafschap last play each other?
They last met on 27 February 2026, when MVV 3-3 De Graafschap.
Who has won more matches between MVV and De Graafschap?
De Graafschap have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
MVV are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
De Graafschap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — MVV at 60%, De Graafschap at 72%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for MVV and 68% for De Graafschap. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: MVV have failed to score in 28% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = MVV home games / De Graafschap away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when MVV play De Graafschap?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of MVV's games and 72% of De Graafschap's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is MVV vs De Graafschap usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of MVV's matches and 68% of De Graafschap's.
Do MVV and De Graafschap tend to score early?
MVV have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, De Graafschap in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.