Jong Utrecht 0-1 Jong PSV U21 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jong PSV U21 at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Jong Utrecht vs Jong PSV U21 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 30 as Jong Utrecht welcome Jong PSV U21 to Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch. Kick-off is set for Monday 13 March 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Jong Utrecht have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Jong Utrecht, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jong Utrecht's form when playing at home: 2W 1D 7L across 10 games at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch this term (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Jong PSV U21 — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Jong PSV U21's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Jong Utrecht 0.80 PPG, Jong PSV U21 0.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Jong Utrecht, 1 for Jong PSV U21 and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Nov 2022, ended 1–2 with Jong PSV U21 winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Jong Utrecht in-play tendencies (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 34% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Jong PSV U21 in-play tendencies (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jong Utrecht 52% versus Jong PSV U21 66%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jong Utrecht 55% | Jong PSV U21 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong Utrecht 1.32 xG and Jong PSV U21 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong Utrecht attack 0.721 / defence 1.055 | Jong PSV U21 attack 0.977 / defence 1.016. League average goals — home 1.799 / away 1.281. Jong Utrecht's attack strength of 0.721 is below the league average — the 1.32 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 65 Jong Utrecht games / 66 Jong PSV U21 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jong Utrecht 37% | Draw 26% | Jong PSV U21 37%. Fair-value odds: Jong Utrecht 2.70 | Draw 3.85 | Jong PSV U21 2.70. The draw (26%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 26% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 37% and away win at 37% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.64 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Jong Utrecht 30% | Jong PSV U21 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong Utrecht vs Jong PSV U21 | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch • Kick-off: Monday 13 Mar 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong Utrecht 37% | Draw 26% | Jong PSV U21 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 54% | xG Jong Utrecht 1.32 / Jong PSV U21 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Jong Utrecht attack 0.721 / def 1.055 | Jong PSV U21 attack 0.977 / def 1.016 | league avg home 1.799 / away 1.281 • Poisson stance: Draw (26%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Jong Utrecht xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Jong PSV U21 xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jong Utrecht vs Jong PSV U21 kick off?
Jong Utrecht vs Jong PSV U21 kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 13 March 2023 at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch.
What was the final score in Jong Utrecht vs Jong PSV U21?
Jong Utrecht 0 - 1 Jong PSV U21.
Where is Jong Utrecht vs Jong PSV U21 being played?
The match is being played at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch.
What competition is Jong Utrecht vs Jong PSV U21 part of?
Jong Utrecht vs Jong PSV U21 is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong Utrecht vs Jong PSV U21?
Our statistical model gives Jong Utrecht a 37% chance of winning, Jong PSV U21 a 37% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Jong Utrecht vs Jong PSV U21?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Jong Utrecht and Jong PSV U21 will score (BTTS).
Will Jong Utrecht vs Jong PSV U21 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jong Utrecht and Jong PSV U21?
Record (3 meetings): Jong Utrecht 2W | Draws 0 | Jong PSV U21 1W.
What form are Jong Utrecht and Jong PSV U21 in?
Jong Utrecht (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-W-L-L. Jong PSV U21 (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Jong Utrecht's attack rating (0.72) and Jong PSV U21's defence rating (1.02), the model arrives at 1.32 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Jong PSV U21's attack versus Jong Utrecht's defence, projects 1.32 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 65/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.8%), 1-2 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jong PSV U21 Win
37%
2.72
26%
3.82
37%
2.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Jong Utrecht xG
Total xG
2.64
1.32
Jong PSV U21 xG
2.72
37%
Home win
3.82
26%
Draw
2.70
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
27%
3.75
27%
3.74
Win to Nil
10%
10.18
10%
10.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 9.4 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 12.4 | 8.2 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 8.2 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.6 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong Utrecht vs Jong PSV U21?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Jong Utrecht and Jong PSV U21 expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Jong Utrecht and 1.32 for Jong PSV U21, a combined total of 2.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong Utrecht vs Jong PSV U21?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 65 outings, Jong Utrecht have picked up 0.89 PPG on a 16W 10D 39L record — L-L-W-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Jong Utrecht is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Jong PSV U21's form line: 19W 18D 28L from 65 games, 1.15 PPG, last five L-D-D-L-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Jong Utrecht on 0.89 PPG, Jong PSV U21 on 1.15. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Jong Utrecht have posted 0.84 PPG from 32 outings (8W 3D 21L).
On the road, Jong PSV U21 have gone 7W 10D 15L from 32 away games — 0.97 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Jong Utrecht are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.77 conceded per game recently; Jong PSV U21 are on 1.58 scored and 1.69 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jong PSV U21 in 66%.
Last 65 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong Utrecht
Blended
Jong PSV U21
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jong Utrecht and Jong PSV U21 in coming into this match?
Jong Utrecht have gone 16W 10D 39L in their last 65 games (0.89 PPG), while Jong PSV U21 have gone 19W 18D 28L in their last 65 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong Utrecht at home or Jong PSV U21 away?
Jong PSV U21's away record (0.97 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong Utrecht at home: 0.84 PPG; Jong PSV U21 away: 0.97 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 19 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Jong Utrecht's record when hosting Jong PSV U21 specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Jong Utrecht
2
Draws
5
Jong PSV U21
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jong Utrecht and Jong PSV U21?
From 10 meetings on record, Jong Utrecht have won 3, Jong PSV U21 have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Jong Utrecht and Jong PSV U21 last play each other?
They last met on 19 January 2026, when Jong Utrecht 5-3 Jong PSV U21.
Who has won more matches between Jong Utrecht and Jong PSV U21?
Jong PSV U21 have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Jong Utrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches.
Jong PSV U21 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jong Utrecht 34%, Jong PSV U21 72% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Jong Utrecht) and 59% (Jong PSV U21).
On the defensive side: Jong Utrecht have failed to score in 53% of games; Jong PSV U21 in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong Utrecht home games / Jong PSV U21 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jong Utrecht play Jong PSV U21?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 34% of Jong Utrecht's recent matches and 72% of Jong PSV U21's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Jong Utrecht vs Jong PSV U21 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Jong Utrecht's recent games and 59% of Jong PSV U21's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Jong Utrecht and Jong PSV U21 tend to score early?
Jong Utrecht have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Jong PSV U21 in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Jong PSV U21 edge out Jong Utrecht 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jong PSV U21 beat Jong Utrecht 0-1 at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch, Regular Season - 30, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong Utrecht 1.32 xG and Jong PSV U21 1.32 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Jong Utrecht fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong Utrecht attack 0.72 / defence 1.05 against Jong PSV U21 attack 0.98 / defence 1.02, drawn from 65/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jong Utrecht 37% | Draw 26% | Jong PSV U21 37%, with Jong Utrecht to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Jong PSV U21 win had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong Utrecht 55%, Jong PSV U21 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jong Utrecht's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Jong PSV U21's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jong Utrecht 0.89 PPG, Jong PSV U21 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jong PSV U21 win broke the near-deadlock. Jong Utrecht (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.88 scoring average — below par going forward. Jong PSV U21 (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.81 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.