Jong Utrecht 1-1 FC OSS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jong Utrecht at 40%, yet the head-to-head data favours FC OSS — this Jong Utrecht vs FC OSS fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Jong Utrecht welcome FC OSS to Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch in Eerste Divisie (matchday 28). Kick-off is Monday 3 March 2025 at 19:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Jong Utrecht have gone 2W 2D 6L — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Jong Utrecht have gone 2W 3D 5L in their last 10 home games (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
FC OSS — last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
FC OSS's away record over their last 10 away games: 0W 5D 5L (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Jong Utrecht at 0.80 PPG versus FC OSS's 0.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
FC OSS have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 4 of the 6 H2H matches we hold against 1 for Jong Utrecht.
The 6 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.5 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 30 Nov 2024, ended Jong Utrecht 1–1 FC OSS — a draw.
The H2H data backs the away side. FC OSS have won 4 of 6 H2H matches, and at 3.5 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
In-Play Data
Jong Utrecht trading profile (last 64 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 67%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
FC OSS trading profile (last 64 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 55% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jong Utrecht 52% versus FC OSS 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jong Utrecht 52% | FC OSS 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong Utrecht 1.24 xG and FC OSS 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong Utrecht attack 0.758 / defence 1.325 | FC OSS attack 0.607 / defence 0.992. League average goals — home 1.650 / away 1.286. Jong Utrecht's attack rating of 0.758 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.24. FC OSS's attack rating of 0.607 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.03. Jong Utrecht's defence rating of 1.325 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing FC OSS's projected output up. Data: built from Jong Utrecht's last 64 games and FC OSS's last 65.
Result probabilities: Jong Utrecht 40% | Draw 30% | FC OSS 30%. Fair-value odds: Jong Utrecht 2.48 | Draw 3.37 | FC OSS 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS Yes probability 46% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 54% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Jong Utrecht as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Jong Utrecht offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.28 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 60% — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.5 goals per game across 6 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Jong Utrecht 60% (last 10 home games) | FC OSS 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong Utrecht vs FC OSS | Competition: Eerste Divisie, matchday 28 | Venue: Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch • Kick-off: Monday 3 March 2025 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong Utrecht 40% | Draw 30% | FC OSS 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% (Under 60%) | BTTS Yes 46% (No 54%) | xG Jong Utrecht 1.24 / FC OSS 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Jong Utrecht attack 0.758 / def 1.325 | FC OSS attack 0.607 / def 0.992 | league avg home 1.650 / away 1.286 • Poisson stance: Jong Utrecht (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Jong Utrecht xG
Expected Goals
1.03
FC OSS xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Jong Utrecht vs FC OSS FAQs
What time does Jong Utrecht vs FC OSS kick off?
Jong Utrecht vs FC OSS kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Monday 3 March 2025 at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch.
What was the final score in Jong Utrecht vs FC OSS?
Jong Utrecht 1 - 1 FC OSS.
Where is Jong Utrecht vs FC OSS being played?
The match is being played at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch.
What competition is Jong Utrecht vs FC OSS part of?
Jong Utrecht vs FC OSS is a Eerste Divisie fixture (matchday 28) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong Utrecht vs FC OSS?
Our statistical model gives Jong Utrecht a 40% chance of winning, FC OSS a 30% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Jong Utrecht the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong Utrecht vs FC OSS?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Jong Utrecht and FC OSS will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (54%).
Will Jong Utrecht vs FC OSS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (60%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Jong Utrecht's attack at 0.76x the league average against FC OSS's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 1.24 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, FC OSS's attack versus Jong Utrecht's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Jong Utrecht's last 64 games and FC OSS's last 65 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.0%), 1-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jong Utrecht Win
40%
2.48
30%
3.37
30%
3.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
0 – 1
10.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Jong Utrecht xG
Total xG
2.28
1.03
FC OSS xG
2.48
40%
Home win
3.37
30%
Draw
3.33
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.15
54%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
36%
2.81
29%
3.46
Win to Nil
14%
6.98
9%
11.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.3 | 10.6 | 5.5 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.8 | 13.2 | 6.8 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 8.2 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Jong Utrecht vs FC OSS Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong Utrecht vs FC OSS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Jong Utrecht and FC OSS expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Jong Utrecht and 1.03 for FC OSS, a combined total of 2.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong Utrecht vs FC OSS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Jong Utrecht's recent record stands at 8W 19D 37L from 64 games, a 0.67 PPG return, with L-L-L-W-L in the last five.
FC OSS, meanwhile, have gone 16W 13D 35L across 64 games — 0.95 PPG, with L-D-L-D-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Jong Utrecht on 0.67 PPG, FC OSS on 0.95. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Jong Utrecht have managed 5W 10D 16L from their last 31 home games — 0.81 PPG in front of their own supporters.
FC OSS's away record stands at 3W 8D 20L across their last 31 away games, a 0.55 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Jong Utrecht are averaging 0.86 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; FC OSS are on 0.80 scored and 1.72 conceded.
Last 64 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong Utrecht
Blended
FC OSS
Blended
Jong Utrecht (Home) vs FC OSS (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Jong Utrecht
Blended
FC OSS
Blended
❓ Jong Utrecht vs FC OSS Form FAQs
What form are Jong Utrecht and FC OSS in coming into this match?
Jong Utrecht have gone 8W 19D 37L in their last 64 games (0.67 PPG), while FC OSS have gone 16W 13D 35L in their last 64 (0.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong Utrecht at home or FC OSS away?
Jong Utrecht's home record (0.81 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong Utrecht at home: 0.81 PPG; FC OSS away: 0.55 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from February 2022. All of them came in Eerste Divisie. The most recent was as recently as 28 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear recent trend here: FC OSS have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 25 Feb 2022, when FC OSS won FC OSS 4-1 Jong Utrecht.
Jong Utrecht's record when hosting FC OSS specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Jong Utrecht
3
Draws
6
FC OSS
Recent Meetings
❓ Jong Utrecht vs FC OSS H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Jong Utrecht and FC OSS?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Jong Utrecht have won 1, FC OSS have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Jong Utrecht and FC OSS last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 28 August 2026: FC OSS 2-1 Jong Utrecht.
Who has won more matches between Jong Utrecht and FC OSS?
FC OSS have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Jong Utrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 62% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
FC OSS see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jong Utrecht 48%, FC OSS 32% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Jong Utrecht) and 45% (FC OSS).
On the defensive side: Jong Utrecht have failed to score in 45% of games; FC OSS in 61%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong Utrecht home games / FC OSS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Jong Utrecht vs FC OSS Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Jong Utrecht and FC OSS matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Jong Utrecht's recent matches and 32% of FC OSS's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Jong Utrecht and FC OSS matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Jong Utrecht's recent games and 45% of FC OSS's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Jong Utrecht and FC OSS matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of Jong Utrecht's recent matches and 55% of FC OSS's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Jong Utrecht and FC OSS share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch, Regular Season - 28, as Jong Utrecht and FC OSS drew 1-1 in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong Utrecht 1.24 xG and FC OSS 1.03 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong Utrecht attack 0.76 / defence 1.32 against FC OSS attack 0.61 / defence 0.99, drawn from 64/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jong Utrecht 40% | Draw 30% | FC OSS 30%, with Jong Utrecht to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong Utrecht 52%, FC OSS 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jong Utrecht's trading profile (64 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
FC OSS's trading profile (64 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jong Utrecht 0.67 PPG, FC OSS 0.95 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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