Jong Utrecht 1-2 Emmen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jong Utrecht at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Jong Utrecht vs Emmen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch plays host to Jong Utrecht versus Emmen in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off: Friday 7 November 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Jong Utrecht have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L W W D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Jong Utrecht, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jong Utrecht's form when playing at home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 games at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Emmen (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: L W L W D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.70. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Emmen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Emmen's form when playing away from home: 2W 0D 8L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for Jong Utrecht, 1.40 for Emmen — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head ledger leans to Emmen, who have claimed 6 wins from 6 meetings compared to 0 for the hosts, with 0 draws.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Mar 2025, ended 0–2 with Emmen winning.
It is worth noting that Emmen have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 6 wins from 6 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading
Jong Utrecht half-time and goal-timing data (52 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 40% of games.
Emmen half-time and goal-timing data (52 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jong Utrecht 54% versus Emmen 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jong Utrecht 54% | Emmen 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong Utrecht 1.80 xG and Emmen 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong Utrecht attack 0.942 / defence 0.930 | Emmen attack 0.798 / defence 1.098. League average goals — home 1.738 / away 1.429. Data: 52 Jong Utrecht games / 52 Emmen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jong Utrecht 55% | Draw 23% | Emmen 22%. Fair-value odds: Jong Utrecht 1.82 | Draw 4.35 | Emmen 4.55. The model has a clear lean to Jong Utrecht (55%) — a 33pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.86. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.86 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Jong Utrecht at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.86 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Jong Utrecht 60% | Emmen 30%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong Utrecht vs Emmen | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch • Kick-off: Friday 7 Nov 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong Utrecht 55% | Draw 23% | Emmen 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 55% | xG Jong Utrecht 1.80 / Emmen 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Jong Utrecht attack 0.942 / def 0.930 | Emmen attack 0.798 / def 1.098 | league avg home 1.738 / away 1.429 • Poisson stance: Jong Utrecht (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.80
Jong Utrecht xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Emmen xG
55%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jong Utrecht vs Emmen kick off?
Jong Utrecht vs Emmen kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 7 November 2025 at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch.
What was the final score in Jong Utrecht vs Emmen?
Jong Utrecht 1 - 2 Emmen.
Where is Jong Utrecht vs Emmen being played?
The match is being played at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch.
What competition is Jong Utrecht vs Emmen part of?
Jong Utrecht vs Emmen is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong Utrecht vs Emmen?
Our statistical model gives Jong Utrecht a 55% chance of winning, Emmen a 22% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Jong Utrecht the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong Utrecht vs Emmen?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Jong Utrecht and Emmen will score (BTTS).
Will Jong Utrecht vs Emmen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jong Utrecht and Emmen?
Record (6 meetings): Jong Utrecht 0W | Draws 0 | Emmen 6W.
What form are Jong Utrecht and Emmen in?
Jong Utrecht (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-W-D-D. Emmen (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Jong Utrecht's attack rating (0.94) and Emmen's defence rating (1.10), the model arrives at 1.80 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Emmen's attack (0.80x) against Jong Utrecht's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 1.06.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jong Utrecht Win
55%
1.83
23%
4.32
22%
4.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.80
Jong Utrecht xG
Total xG
2.86
1.06
Emmen xG
1.83
55%
Home win
4.32
23%
Draw
4.50
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
35%
2.89
17%
6.04
Win to Nil
19%
5.28
4%
27.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 6.1 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 10.9 | 5.8 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.8 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 5.9 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong Utrecht vs Emmen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Jong Utrecht and Emmen expected to score?
The model projects 1.80 expected goals for Jong Utrecht and 1.06 for Emmen, a combined total of 2.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong Utrecht vs Emmen?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 52 outings, Jong Utrecht have picked up 0.75 PPG on a 8W 15D 29L record — L-W-W-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Jong Utrecht is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Emmen's form line: 22W 7D 23L from 52 games, 1.40 PPG, last five L-W-L-W-D. The sample for Emmen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Emmen are the form team by 0.65 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Jong Utrecht.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Jong Utrecht have posted 1.04 PPG from 26 outings (6W 9D 11L).
On the road, Emmen have gone 12W 1D 13L from 26 away games — 1.42 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Jong Utrecht are averaging 0.92 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Emmen are on 1.54 scored and 1.54 conceded.
Last 52 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong Utrecht
Blended
Emmen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jong Utrecht and Emmen in coming into this match?
Jong Utrecht have gone 8W 15D 29L in their last 52 games (0.75 PPG), while Emmen have gone 22W 7D 23L in their last 52 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong Utrecht at home or Emmen away?
Emmen's away record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong Utrecht at home: 1.04 PPG; Emmen away: 1.42 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 2 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Emmen go into this on the back of 8 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Jong Utrecht have gone 0W 0D 4L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Emmen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Jong Utrecht
0
Draws
8
Emmen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jong Utrecht and Emmen?
From 8 meetings on record, Jong Utrecht have won 0, Emmen have won 8, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Jong Utrecht and Emmen last play each other?
They last met on 2 March 2026, when Emmen 1-0 Jong Utrecht.
Who has won more matches between Jong Utrecht and Emmen?
Emmen have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Jong Utrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Emmen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jong Utrecht 54%, Emmen 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Jong Utrecht) and 58% (Emmen).
On the defensive side: Jong Utrecht have failed to score in 38% of games; Emmen in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong Utrecht home games / Emmen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jong Utrecht play Emmen?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Jong Utrecht's recent matches and 38% of Emmen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Jong Utrecht vs Emmen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Jong Utrecht's recent games and 58% of Emmen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Jong Utrecht and Emmen tend to score early?
Jong Utrecht have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Emmen in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Emmen defy the odds to beat Jong Utrecht 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Emmen beat Jong Utrecht 1-2 at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch, Regular Season - 15, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong Utrecht 1.80 xG and Emmen 1.06 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Emmen outscored their 1.06 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong Utrecht attack 0.94 / defence 0.93 against Emmen attack 0.80 / defence 1.10, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jong Utrecht 55% | Draw 23% | Emmen 22%, with Jong Utrecht to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a Emmen win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong Utrecht 54%, Emmen 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jong Utrecht's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Emmen's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Emmen arrived the stronger side — 1.40 PPG against 0.75. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.