Jong Utrecht 1-1 De Graafschap – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates De Graafschap at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Jong Utrecht vs De Graafschap encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Jong Utrecht host De Graafschap at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 20 January 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Jong Utrecht — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: D D L L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Jong Utrecht, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch, Jong Utrecht have gone 2W 2D 6L this season (10 games, 0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, De Graafschap stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W L L L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for De Graafschap, so this record blends games from this season and last.
De Graafschap's away record: 2W 4D 4L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. De Graafschap are 0.80 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 0.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 7 previous meetings, Jong Utrecht have won 1, De Graafschap 2, with 4 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 7 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 2.9 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 23 Aug 2024, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.9 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Jong Utrecht in-play and half-time data (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
De Graafschap in-play and half-time data (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jong Utrecht 52% versus De Graafschap 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jong Utrecht 50% | De Graafschap 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong Utrecht 1.29 xG and De Graafschap 1.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong Utrecht attack 0.791 / defence 1.323 | De Graafschap attack 0.960 / defence 1.043. League average goals — home 1.565 / away 1.358. Jong Utrecht's attack strength of 0.791 is below the league average — the 1.29 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 58 Jong Utrecht games / 58 De Graafschap games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jong Utrecht 28% | Draw 25% | De Graafschap 47%. Fair-value odds: Jong Utrecht 3.57 | Draw 4.00 | De Graafschap 2.13. De Graafschap hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.02. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.02 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.29 / 1.73) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates De Graafschap as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on De Graafschap offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.02 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.9 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Jong Utrecht 50% | De Graafschap 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong Utrecht vs De Graafschap | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch • Kick-off: Monday 20 Jan 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong Utrecht 28% | Draw 25% | De Graafschap 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 60% | xG Jong Utrecht 1.29 / De Graafschap 1.73 • Poisson strength factors: Jong Utrecht attack 0.791 / def 1.323 | De Graafschap attack 0.960 / def 1.043 | league avg home 1.565 / away 1.358 • Poisson stance: De Graafschap (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Jong Utrecht xG
Expected Goals
1.73
De Graafschap xG
60%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jong Utrecht vs De Graafschap kick off?
Jong Utrecht vs De Graafschap kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 20 January 2025 at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch.
What was the final score in Jong Utrecht vs De Graafschap?
Jong Utrecht 1 - 1 De Graafschap.
Where is Jong Utrecht vs De Graafschap being played?
The match is being played at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch.
What competition is Jong Utrecht vs De Graafschap part of?
Jong Utrecht vs De Graafschap is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong Utrecht vs De Graafschap?
Our statistical model gives Jong Utrecht a 28% chance of winning, De Graafschap a 47% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making De Graafschap the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong Utrecht vs De Graafschap?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Jong Utrecht and De Graafschap will score (BTTS).
Will Jong Utrecht vs De Graafschap have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jong Utrecht and De Graafschap?
Record (7 meetings): Jong Utrecht 1W | Draws 4 | De Graafschap 2W.
What form are Jong Utrecht and De Graafschap in?
Jong Utrecht (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-D-L-L-W. De Graafschap (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Jong Utrecht's attacking strength (0.79x league average) is weighed against De Graafschap's defensive record (1.04x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.29. The same calculation in reverse, De Graafschap's attack versus Jong Utrecht's defence, projects 1.73 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-2 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
De Graafschap Win
28%
3.59
25%
3.96
47%
2.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
0 – 1
8.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Jong Utrecht xG
Total xG
3.02
1.73
De Graafschap xG
3.59
28%
Home win
3.96
25%
Draw
2.13
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.52
Clean Sheet
18%
5.62
28%
3.63
Win to Nil
5%
20.15
13%
7.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 8.5 | 7.3 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 10.9 | 9.4 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 7.0 | 6.1 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 3.0 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong Utrecht vs De Graafschap?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Jong Utrecht and De Graafschap expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Jong Utrecht and 1.73 for De Graafschap, a combined total of 3.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong Utrecht vs De Graafschap?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 58 outings, Jong Utrecht have picked up 0.67 PPG on a 7W 18D 33L record — D-D-L-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Jong Utrecht is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
De Graafschap's form line: 27W 11D 20L from 58 games, 1.59 PPG, last five L-W-L-L-L. The sample for De Graafschap is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, De Graafschap are the form team by 0.92 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Jong Utrecht.
Venue Form
On home soil, Jong Utrecht have posted 0.83 PPG from 29 outings (5W 9D 15L).
On the road, De Graafschap have gone 9W 7D 13L from 29 away games — 1.17 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.59 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of De Graafschap's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Jong Utrecht are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 1.95 conceded per game recently; De Graafschap are on 1.79 scored and 1.52 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: De Graafschap in 64%.
Last 58 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong Utrecht
Blended
De Graafschap
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jong Utrecht and De Graafschap in coming into this match?
Jong Utrecht have gone 7W 18D 33L in their last 58 games (0.67 PPG), while De Graafschap have gone 27W 11D 20L in their last 58 (1.59 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong Utrecht at home or De Graafschap away?
De Graafschap's away record (1.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong Utrecht at home: 0.83 PPG; De Graafschap away: 1.17 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 20 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
De Graafschap go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Jong Utrecht's record when hosting De Graafschap specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Jong Utrecht
5
Draws
4
De Graafschap
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jong Utrecht and De Graafschap?
From 10 meetings on record, Jong Utrecht have won 1, De Graafschap have won 4, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Jong Utrecht and De Graafschap last play each other?
They last met on 20 February 2026, when De Graafschap 1-0 Jong Utrecht.
Who has won more matches between Jong Utrecht and De Graafschap?
De Graafschap have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Jong Utrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
De Graafschap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jong Utrecht 45%, De Graafschap 66% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Jong Utrecht) and 72% (De Graafschap). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 28% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Jong Utrecht have failed to score in 48% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong Utrecht home games / De Graafschap away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jong Utrecht play De Graafschap?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 45% of Jong Utrecht's games and 66% of De Graafschap's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jong Utrecht vs De Graafschap usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 41% of Jong Utrecht's matches and 72% of De Graafschap's.
Do Jong Utrecht and De Graafschap tend to score early?
Jong Utrecht have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, De Graafschap in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Jong Utrecht and De Graafschap share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch, Regular Season - 22, as Jong Utrecht and De Graafschap drew 1-1 in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong Utrecht 1.29 xG and De Graafschap 1.73 xG, a combined 3.02. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong Utrecht attack 0.79 / defence 1.32 against De Graafschap attack 0.96 / defence 1.04, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jong Utrecht 28% | Draw 25% | De Graafschap 47%, with De Graafschap to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong Utrecht 50%, De Graafschap 71%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jong Utrecht's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
De Graafschap's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, De Graafschap arrived the stronger side — 1.59 PPG against 0.67. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.