Jong PSV U21 3-1 Jong Utrecht – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Jong PSV U21 at 62% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Jong PSV U21 face Jong Utrecht.

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Fixture Analysis

Jong PSV U21 welcome Jong Utrecht to PSV Campus De Herdgang in Eerste Divisie (matchday 38). Kick-off is Friday 9 May 2025 at 20:00 UK time.

Form Analysis

Looking at their last 10 matches, Jong PSV U21 stand at 1W 3D 6L — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D W L L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.70 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Jong PSV U21 at home: 2W 1D 7L from their last 10 home games — 0.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Jong Utrecht — last 10 games: 1W 2D 7L — 0.50 PPG. Last five: D L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 2.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

On the road, Jong Utrecht have gone 1W 0D 9L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 3.20 conceded per game.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Jong PSV U21 0.60 PPG, Jong Utrecht 0.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

H2H

The H2H picture is flat: the 7 H2H matches we hold have produced 4 wins for Jong PSV U21, 2 for Jong Utrecht and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here.

The 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 1.9 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 16 Aug 2024, ended Jong PSV U21 2–0 Jong Utrecht — a Jong PSV U21 win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

In-Play Data

Jong PSV U21 trading profile (last 75 games, 37 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 84% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; of the 24 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 46%; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 81% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 57%.

Jong Utrecht trading profile (last 75 games, 37 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 86% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 71%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jong PSV U21 68% versus Jong Utrecht 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jong PSV U21 76% | Jong Utrecht 51%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Jong PSV U21 2.52 xG and Jong Utrecht 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong PSV U21 attack 0.970 / defence 1.674 | Jong Utrecht attack 0.663 / defence 1.529. League average goals — home 1.695 / away 1.250. Jong Utrecht's defence rating of 1.529 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Jong PSV U21's projected output up. Jong Utrecht's attack rating of 0.663 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.39. Jong PSV U21's defence rating of 1.674 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Jong Utrecht's projected output up. Data: built from Jong PSV U21's last 75 games and Jong Utrecht's last 75.

Result probabilities: Jong PSV U21 62% | Draw 19% | Jong Utrecht 20%. Fair-value odds: Jong PSV U21 1.62 | Draw 5.37 | Jong Utrecht 5.11. The model has a clear lean to Jong PSV U21 (62%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 75% | BTTS Yes probability 69% | Total xG 3.90. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 75% — a total xG of 3.90 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% — both xG figures (2.52 / 1.39) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Jong PSV U21 at 62% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 3.90 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 75% — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Jong PSV U21's last 10 home games and Jong Utrecht's last 10 away games) averaging 4.2 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging only 1.9 goals per game across 7 H2H matches points the other way.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 69% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Jong PSV U21 90% (last 10 home games) | Jong Utrecht 40% (last 10 away games).

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