Jong PSV U21 1-0 Dordrecht – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jong PSV U21 at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Jong PSV U21 vs Dordrecht fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Jong PSV U21 and Dordrecht meet at PSV Campus De Herdgang in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 2. This fixture gets under way on Monday 15 August 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Jong PSV U21 (all games): 1W 7D 2L across 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D D D D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Jong PSV U21 have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Jong PSV U21's home record at PSV Campus De Herdgang: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie appearances (1.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Dordrecht's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L W W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Dordrecht have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Dordrecht have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.00 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Jong PSV U21 have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Dordrecht in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Jong PSV U21, 0 for Dordrecht and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 May 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Jong PSV U21 goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
Dordrecht goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 90% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Jong PSV U21 64% and Dordrecht 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jong PSV U21 59% | Dordrecht 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong PSV U21 1.83 xG and Dordrecht 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong PSV U21 attack 1.050 / defence 1.059 | Dordrecht attack 0.958 / defence 1.108. League average goals — home 1.571 / away 1.383. Data: 39 Jong PSV U21 games / 39 Dordrecht games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Jong PSV U21 48% | Draw 23% | Dordrecht 30%. Fair-value odds: Jong PSV U21 2.08 | Draw 4.35 | Dordrecht 3.33. Jong PSV U21 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.23. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.23 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.83 / 1.40) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Jong PSV U21 as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Jong PSV U21 if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.23 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates corroborate: Jong PSV U21 70% | Dordrecht 60% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (39 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong PSV U21 vs Dordrecht | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: PSV Campus De Herdgang • Kick-off: Monday 15 Aug 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong PSV U21 48% | Draw 23% | Dordrecht 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 63% | xG Jong PSV U21 1.83 / Dordrecht 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: Jong PSV U21 attack 1.050 / def 1.059 | Dordrecht attack 0.958 / def 1.108 | league avg home 1.571 / away 1.383 • Poisson stance: Jong PSV U21 (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.83
Jong PSV U21 xG
Expected Goals
1.40
Dordrecht xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jong PSV U21 vs Dordrecht kick off?
Jong PSV U21 vs Dordrecht kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 15 August 2022 at PSV Campus De Herdgang.
What was the final score in Jong PSV U21 vs Dordrecht?
Jong PSV U21 1 - 0 Dordrecht.
Where is Jong PSV U21 vs Dordrecht being played?
The match is being played at PSV Campus De Herdgang.
What competition is Jong PSV U21 vs Dordrecht part of?
Jong PSV U21 vs Dordrecht is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong PSV U21 vs Dordrecht?
Our statistical model gives Jong PSV U21 a 48% chance of winning, Dordrecht a 30% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Jong PSV U21 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong PSV U21 vs Dordrecht?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Jong PSV U21 and Dordrecht will score (BTTS).
Will Jong PSV U21 vs Dordrecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jong PSV U21 and Dordrecht?
Record (2 meetings): Jong PSV U21 0W | Draws 2 | Dordrecht 0W.
What form are Jong PSV U21 and Dordrecht in?
Jong PSV U21 (all comps): 1W-7D-2L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-D-D-D-D. Dordrecht (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Jong PSV U21's attack rating (1.05) and Dordrecht's defence rating (1.11), the model arrives at 1.83 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Dordrecht's attack (0.96x) against Jong PSV U21's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.40.
The sample (39/39 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-2 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Jong PSV U21 Win
48%
2.10
23%
4.39
30%
3.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
7.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.83
Jong PSV U21 xG
Total xG
3.23
1.40
Dordrecht xG
2.10
48%
Home win
4.39
23%
Draw
3.37
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.72
Clean Sheet
25%
4.07
16%
6.22
Win to Nil
12%
8.54
5%
21.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 5.5 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 10.1 | 7.1 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 9.3 | 6.5 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 5.6 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong PSV U21 vs Dordrecht?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Jong PSV U21 and Dordrecht expected to score?
The model projects 1.83 expected goals for Jong PSV U21 and 1.40 for Dordrecht, a combined total of 3.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong PSV U21 vs Dordrecht?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Jong PSV U21's recent record stands at 11W 12D 16L from 39 games, a 1.15 PPG return, with D-D-D-D-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Jong PSV U21, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Dordrecht, meanwhile, have gone 10W 9D 20L across 39 games — 1.00 PPG, with L-W-W-D-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Dordrecht, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.15 PPG for Jong PSV U21 against 1.00 for Dordrecht. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Jong PSV U21 have managed 7W 6D 6L from 19 games — 1.42 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Dordrecht's away record stands at 4W 3D 12L across 19 trips, a 0.79 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jong PSV U21 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Jong PSV U21 are averaging 1.59 goals scored and 1.64 conceded per game recently; Dordrecht are on 1.36 scored and 2.03 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jong PSV U21 have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games; Dordrecht in 64%.
Last 39 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong PSV U21
Early Season
Dordrecht
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jong PSV U21 and Dordrecht in coming into this match?
Jong PSV U21 have gone 11W 12D 16L in their last 39 games (1.15 PPG), while Dordrecht have gone 10W 9D 20L in their last 39 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong PSV U21 at home or Dordrecht away?
Jong PSV U21's home record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong PSV U21 at home: 1.42 PPG; Dordrecht away: 0.79 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 27 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Jong PSV U21 won 1-4 on 10 Nov 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Jong PSV U21 have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Dordrecht — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Jong PSV U21
3
Draws
4
Dordrecht
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jong PSV U21 and Dordrecht?
From 10 meetings on record, Jong PSV U21 have won 3, Dordrecht have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Jong PSV U21 and Dordrecht last play each other?
They last met on 27 February 2026, when Jong PSV U21 1-1 Dordrecht.
Who has won more matches between Jong PSV U21 and Dordrecht?
Dordrecht have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Jong PSV U21 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Dordrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 63% for Jong PSV U21, 74% for Dordrecht — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 63% for Jong PSV U21 and 90% for Dordrecht. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 53% and 47% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong PSV U21 home games / Dordrecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jong PSV U21 play Dordrecht?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Jong PSV U21's games and 74% of Dordrecht's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jong PSV U21 vs Dordrecht usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of Jong PSV U21's matches and 90% of Dordrecht's.
Do Jong PSV U21 and Dordrecht tend to score early?
Jong PSV U21 have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, Dordrecht in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Jong PSV U21 edge out Dordrecht 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jong PSV U21 beat Dordrecht 1-0 at PSV Campus De Herdgang, Regular Season - 2, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong PSV U21 1.83 xG and Dordrecht 1.40 xG, a combined 3.23. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Jong PSV U21 fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Dordrecht landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong PSV U21 attack 1.05 / defence 1.06 against Dordrecht attack 0.96 / defence 1.11, drawn from 39/39 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Jong PSV U21 48% | Draw 23% | Dordrecht 30%, with Jong PSV U21 to win its most likely call at 48%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. Over 3.5 was 40% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong PSV U21 59%, Dordrecht 69%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jong PSV U21's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Dordrecht's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jong PSV U21 1.15 PPG, Dordrecht 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jong PSV U21 win broke the near-deadlock. Jong PSV U21 (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.84 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.47 average — tighter than their form line. Dordrecht (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.32 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.42 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.