Jong PSV U21 3-1 Den Bosch – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Den Bosch at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Jong PSV U21 vs Den Bosch fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Den Bosch make the trip to PSV Campus De Herdgang to face Jong PSV U21 in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 8. The match kicks off on Monday 12 September 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Jong PSV U21's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 1W 6D 3L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: W L L L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Jong PSV U21 have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at PSV Campus De Herdgang, Jong PSV U21 have gone 2W 4D 4L this season (10 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
Den Bosch have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Den Bosch have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, Den Bosch have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.90 PPG for Jong PSV U21 against 1.00 for Den Bosch. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Jong PSV U21 0W, Den Bosch 1W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 5.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 14 Mar 2022, ended 2–3 with Den Bosch winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Jong PSV U21 — key trading statistics (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Den Bosch — key trading statistics (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jong PSV U21 61% versus Den Bosch 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jong PSV U21 59% | Den Bosch 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong PSV U21 1.07 xG and Den Bosch 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong PSV U21 attack 0.690 / defence 1.266 | Den Bosch attack 0.879 / defence 0.949. League average goals — home 1.637 / away 1.327. Jong PSV U21's attack strength of 0.690 is below the league average — the 1.07 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 44 Jong PSV U21 games / 44 Den Bosch games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jong PSV U21 27% | Draw 26% | Den Bosch 46%. Fair-value odds: Jong PSV U21 3.70 | Draw 3.85 | Den Bosch 2.17. Den Bosch hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Den Bosch as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Den Bosch if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.55 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Jong PSV U21 50% | Den Bosch 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong PSV U21 vs Den Bosch | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: PSV Campus De Herdgang • Kick-off: Monday 12 Sep 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong PSV U21 27% | Draw 26% | Den Bosch 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 51% | xG Jong PSV U21 1.07 / Den Bosch 1.48 • Poisson strength factors: Jong PSV U21 attack 0.690 / def 1.266 | Den Bosch attack 0.879 / def 0.949 | league avg home 1.637 / away 1.327 • Poisson stance: Den Bosch (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
Jong PSV U21 xG
Expected Goals
1.48
Den Bosch xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jong PSV U21 vs Den Bosch kick off?
Jong PSV U21 vs Den Bosch kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 12 September 2022 at PSV Campus De Herdgang.
What was the final score in Jong PSV U21 vs Den Bosch?
Jong PSV U21 3 - 1 Den Bosch.
Where is Jong PSV U21 vs Den Bosch being played?
The match is being played at PSV Campus De Herdgang.
What competition is Jong PSV U21 vs Den Bosch part of?
Jong PSV U21 vs Den Bosch is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong PSV U21 vs Den Bosch?
Our statistical model gives Jong PSV U21 a 27% chance of winning, Den Bosch a 46% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Den Bosch the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong PSV U21 vs Den Bosch?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Jong PSV U21 and Den Bosch will score (BTTS).
Will Jong PSV U21 vs Den Bosch have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jong PSV U21 and Den Bosch?
Record (1 meetings): Jong PSV U21 0W | Draws 0 | Den Bosch 1W.
What form are Jong PSV U21 and Den Bosch in?
Jong PSV U21 (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-L-L-D. Den Bosch (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Jong PSV U21's attack rating (0.69) and Den Bosch's defence rating (0.95), the model arrives at 1.07 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Den Bosch's attack (0.88x) against Jong PSV U21's defence (1.27x) — and the away total comes out at 1.48.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 0-1 (9.9%), 0-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Den Bosch Win
27%
3.64
26%
3.84
46%
2.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.5%
Away win
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
Jong PSV U21 xG
Total xG
2.55
1.48
Den Bosch xG
3.64
27%
Home win
3.84
26%
Draw
2.15
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
23%
4.38
34%
2.92
Win to Nil
6%
15.92
16%
6.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 11.5 | 8.5 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 12.4 | 9.1 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 6.6 | 4.9 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong PSV U21 vs Den Bosch?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Jong PSV U21 and Den Bosch expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Jong PSV U21 and 1.48 for Den Bosch, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong PSV U21 vs Den Bosch?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Jong PSV U21's recent record stands at 12W 13D 19L from 44 games, a 1.11 PPG return, with W-L-L-L-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Jong PSV U21, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Den Bosch, meanwhile, have gone 15W 5D 24L across 44 games — 1.14 PPG, with W-L-L-L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Den Bosch, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.11 PPG for Jong PSV U21 against 1.14 for Den Bosch. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Jong PSV U21 have managed 8W 6D 8L from 22 games — 1.36 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Den Bosch's away record stands at 5W 4D 13L across 22 trips, a 0.86 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jong PSV U21 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Jong PSV U21 are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game recently; Den Bosch are on 1.07 scored and 1.66 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jong PSV U21 have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 44 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong PSV U21
Early Season
Den Bosch
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jong PSV U21 and Den Bosch in coming into this match?
Jong PSV U21 have gone 12W 13D 19L in their last 44 games (1.11 PPG), while Den Bosch have gone 15W 5D 24L in their last 44 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong PSV U21 at home or Den Bosch away?
Jong PSV U21's home record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong PSV U21 at home: 1.36 PPG; Den Bosch away: 0.86 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to March 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. The two were last together as recently as 7 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Jong PSV U21 won 3-0 on 22 Sep 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Jong PSV U21 have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Den Bosch — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Jong PSV U21
2
Draws
4
Den Bosch
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jong PSV U21 and Den Bosch?
From 10 meetings on record, Jong PSV U21 have won 4, Den Bosch have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Jong PSV U21 and Den Bosch last play each other?
They last met on 7 September 2026, when Jong PSV U21 3-1 Den Bosch.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Jong PSV U21 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Den Bosch are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jong PSV U21 54%, Den Bosch 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Jong PSV U21) and 50% (Den Bosch). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 23% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Jong PSV U21 have failed to score in 27% of games; Den Bosch in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong PSV U21 home games / Den Bosch away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jong PSV U21 play Den Bosch?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Jong PSV U21's recent matches and 46% of Den Bosch's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Jong PSV U21 vs Den Bosch usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Jong PSV U21's matches and 50% of Den Bosch's.
Do Jong PSV U21 and Den Bosch tend to score early?
Jong PSV U21 have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Den Bosch in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Jong PSV U21 cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Den Bosch.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jong PSV U21 beat Den Bosch 3-1 at PSV Campus De Herdgang, Regular Season - 8, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong PSV U21 1.07 xG and Den Bosch 1.48 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Jong PSV U21 beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong PSV U21 attack 0.69 / defence 1.27 against Den Bosch attack 0.88 / defence 0.95, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jong PSV U21 27% | Draw 26% | Den Bosch 46%, with Den Bosch to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Jong PSV U21 win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong PSV U21 59%, Den Bosch 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jong PSV U21's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Den Bosch's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jong PSV U21 1.11 PPG, Den Bosch 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jong PSV U21 win broke the near-deadlock. Jong PSV U21 (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.64 average — above their attacking norm. Den Bosch (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.73 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.