Jong PSV U21 2-3 Almere City FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Jong PSV U21 at 55% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Jong PSV U21 vs Almere City FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Almere City FC make the trip to De Herdgang to face Jong PSV U21 in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 20. The match kicks off on Friday 12 December 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Jong PSV U21 (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W D L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 2.30 conceded. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Jong PSV U21, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jong PSV U21 at De Herdgang this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Jong PSV U21 are significantly better at De Herdgang than their overall form suggests.
Almere City FC have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W L W W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.60. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Almere City FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Almere City FC's form when playing away from home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Almere City FC are 0.50 PPG clear of Jong PSV U21 in recent Eerste Divisie fixtures (1.70 vs 1.20). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Jong PSV U21 have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Almere City FC in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
The head-to-head record favours Jong PSV U21, who have won 4 of the last 5 meetings against Almere City FC — a 0D 1W return for the visitors.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.8 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Sep 2025, ended 4–2 with Jong PSV U21 winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Jong PSV U21 and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 5 meetings, combined with an average of 4.8 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Data
Jong PSV U21 goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 96% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 81% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 88% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 58%.
Almere City FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jong PSV U21 70% versus Almere City FC 45%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Jong PSV U21 77% | Almere City FC 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong PSV U21 2.20 xG and Almere City FC 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong PSV U21 attack 1.087 / defence 1.069 | Almere City FC attack 0.913 / defence 1.182. League average goals — home 1.713 / away 1.444. Data: 57 Jong PSV U21 games / 19 Almere City FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jong PSV U21 55% | Draw 21% | Almere City FC 24%. Fair-value odds: Jong PSV U21 1.82 | Draw 4.76 | Almere City FC 4.17. The model has a clear lean to Jong PSV U21 (55%) — a 31pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.61. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.61 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (2.20 / 1.41) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Jong PSV U21 dominate the H2H record, yet Almere City FC are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
Poisson rates Jong PSV U21 as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Almere City FC (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.61 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 70% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 68% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Jong PSV U21 60% | Almere City FC 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong PSV U21 vs Almere City FC | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: De Herdgang • Kick-off: Friday 12 Dec 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong PSV U21 55% | Draw 21% | Almere City FC 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% | BTTS 68% | xG Jong PSV U21 2.20 / Almere City FC 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: Jong PSV U21 attack 1.087 / def 1.069 | Almere City FC attack 0.913 / def 1.182 | league avg home 1.713 / away 1.444 • Poisson stance: Jong PSV U21 (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.20
Jong PSV U21 xG
Expected Goals
1.41
Almere City FC xG
68%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jong PSV U21 vs Almere City FC kick off?
Jong PSV U21 vs Almere City FC kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 12 December 2025 at De Herdgang.
What was the final score in Jong PSV U21 vs Almere City FC?
Jong PSV U21 2 - 3 Almere City FC.
Where is Jong PSV U21 vs Almere City FC being played?
The match is being played at De Herdgang.
What competition is Jong PSV U21 vs Almere City FC part of?
Jong PSV U21 vs Almere City FC is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong PSV U21 vs Almere City FC?
Our statistical model gives Jong PSV U21 a 55% chance of winning, Almere City FC a 24% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Jong PSV U21 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong PSV U21 vs Almere City FC?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Jong PSV U21 and Almere City FC will score (BTTS).
Will Jong PSV U21 vs Almere City FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jong PSV U21 and Almere City FC?
Record (5 meetings): Jong PSV U21 4W | Draws 0 | Almere City FC 1W.
What form are Jong PSV U21 and Almere City FC in?
Jong PSV U21 (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 2.30 | L5 W-D-L-W-L. Almere City FC (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Jong PSV U21's attack rating (1.09) and Almere City FC's defence rating (1.18), the model arrives at 2.20 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Almere City FC's attack (0.91x) against Jong PSV U21's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 1.41.
These ratings are built from 57/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 3-1 (6.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Jong PSV U21 Win
55%
1.81
21%
4.76
24%
4.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.4%
Draw
3 – 1
6.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.20
Jong PSV U21 xG
Total xG
3.61
1.41
Almere City FC xG
1.81
55%
Home win
4.76
21%
Draw
4.19
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
49%
Over 3.5
2.04
51%
Under 3.5
1.96
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.48
32%
BTTS No
3.08
Clean Sheet
24%
4.09
11%
9.03
Win to Nil
13%
7.42
3%
37.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.7 | 3.8 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 8.4 | 5.9 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 9.2 | 6.5 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 6.8 | 4.8 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 3.7 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong PSV U21 vs Almere City FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.5%.
How many goals are Jong PSV U21 and Almere City FC expected to score?
The model projects 2.20 expected goals for Jong PSV U21 and 1.41 for Almere City FC, a combined total of 3.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong PSV U21 vs Almere City FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 53 outings, Jong PSV U21 have picked up 1.08 PPG on a 16W 9D 28L record — W-D-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Jong PSV U21 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Almere City FC's form line: 12W 12D 29L from 53 games, 0.91 PPG, last five W-L-W-W-W. The sample for Almere City FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.08 PPG for Jong PSV U21 against 0.91 for Almere City FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Jong PSV U21 have posted 1.19 PPG from 26 outings (9W 4D 13L).
On the road, Almere City FC have gone 5W 5D 16L from 26 away games — 0.77 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jong PSV U21 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Jong PSV U21 are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 2.15 conceded per game recently; Almere City FC are on 1.15 scored and 1.79 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jong PSV U21 have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games.
Last 53 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong PSV U21
Blended
Almere City FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jong PSV U21 and Almere City FC in coming into this match?
Jong PSV U21 have gone 16W 9D 28L in their last 53 games (1.08 PPG), while Almere City FC have gone 12W 12D 29L in their last 53 (0.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong PSV U21 at home or Almere City FC away?
Jong PSV U21's home record (1.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong PSV U21 at home: 1.19 PPG; Almere City FC away: 0.77 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 7 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. The two were last together as recently as 14 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Almere City FC have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Jong PSV U21 won 5-1 on 10 Jan 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Jong PSV U21 have gone 1W 0D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Almere City FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
4
Jong PSV U21
0
Draws
3
Almere City FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jong PSV U21 and Almere City FC?
From 7 meetings on record, Jong PSV U21 have won 4, Almere City FC have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Jong PSV U21 and Almere City FC last play each other?
They last met on 14 August 2026, when Almere City FC 3-1 Jong PSV U21.
Who has won more matches between Jong PSV U21 and Almere City FC?
Jong PSV U21 have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Jong PSV U21 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 96% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Almere City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jong PSV U21 81%, Almere City FC 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 88% for Jong PSV U21 and 54% for Almere City FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 62% and 23% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Almere City FC in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong PSV U21 home games / Almere City FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jong PSV U21 play Almere City FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 81% of Jong PSV U21's games and 42% of Almere City FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jong PSV U21 vs Almere City FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 88% of Jong PSV U21's matches and 54% of Almere City FC's.
Do Jong PSV U21 and Almere City FC tend to score early?
Jong PSV U21 have had a goal before half-time in 96% of their recent matches, Almere City FC in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Almere City FC defy the odds to beat Jong PSV U21 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Almere City FC beat Jong PSV U21 2-3 at De Herdgang, Regular Season - 20, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong PSV U21 2.20 xG and Almere City FC 1.41 xG, a combined 3.61. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Almere City FC outscored their 1.41 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong PSV U21 attack 1.09 / defence 1.07 against Almere City FC attack 0.91 / defence 1.18, drawn from 57/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jong PSV U21 55% | Draw 21% | Almere City FC 24%, with Jong PSV U21 to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a Almere City FC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 49% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong PSV U21 77%, Almere City FC 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jong PSV U21's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Almere City FC's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jong PSV U21 1.08 PPG, Almere City FC 0.91 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Almere City FC win broke the near-deadlock. Jong PSV U21 (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 2.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Almere City FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.88 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.