Jong AZ 2-3 NAC Breda – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jong AZ at 41%, yet the head-to-head data favours NAC Breda — this Jong AZ vs NAC Breda fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Jong AZ welcome NAC Breda to AFAS Trainingscomplex in Eerste Divisie (matchday 27). Kick-off is Monday 26 February 2024 at 19:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Jong AZ — last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: W L W W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Jong AZ's home record over their last 10 home games: 6W 1D 3L (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across their last 10 games, NAC Breda have recorded 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D D D L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
NAC Breda's away record over their last 10 away games: 4W 2D 4L (1.40 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Jong AZ at 1.50 PPG versus NAC Breda's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
Despite the home advantage, NAC Breda have the better record in our head-to-head data — 4 wins from 5 H2H matches against 1 for Jong AZ.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.2 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 18 Aug 2023, ended Jong AZ 1–2 NAC Breda — a NAC Breda win.
The H2H data backs the away side. NAC Breda have won 4 of 5 H2H matches, and at 3.2 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
In-Play Profile
Jong AZ in-play tendencies (last 64 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
NAC Breda in-play tendencies (last 64 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 88% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; of the 23 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Jong AZ 59% and NAC Breda 72% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jong AZ 61% | NAC Breda 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong AZ 1.63 xG and NAC Breda 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong AZ attack 1.090 / defence 0.926 | NAC Breda attack 1.176 / defence 0.908. League average goals — home 1.647 / away 1.317. Data: built from Jong AZ's last 64 games and NAC Breda's last 64.
Result probabilities: Jong AZ 41% | Draw 27% | NAC Breda 32%. Fair-value odds: Jong AZ 2.46 | Draw 3.68 | NAC Breda 3.11. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS Yes probability 63% | Total xG 3.06. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.06 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% — both xG figures (1.63 / 1.44) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Jong AZ are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Jong AZ offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.06 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Jong AZ's last 10 home games and NAC Breda's last 10 away games) averaging 3.3 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.2 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Jong AZ 40% (last 10 home games) | NAC Breda 70% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong AZ vs NAC Breda | Competition: Eerste Divisie, matchday 27 | Venue: AFAS Trainingscomplex • Kick-off: Monday 26 February 2024 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong AZ 41% | Draw 27% | NAC Breda 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% (Under 41%) | BTTS Yes 63% (No 37%) | xG Jong AZ 1.63 / NAC Breda 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: Jong AZ attack 1.090 / def 0.926 | NAC Breda attack 1.176 / def 0.908 | league avg home 1.647 / away 1.317 • Poisson stance: Jong AZ (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.63
Jong AZ xG
Expected Goals
1.44
NAC Breda xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Jong AZ vs NAC Breda FAQs
What time does Jong AZ vs NAC Breda kick off?
Jong AZ vs NAC Breda kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Monday 26 February 2024 at AFAS Trainingscomplex.
What was the final score in Jong AZ vs NAC Breda?
Jong AZ 2 - 3 NAC Breda.
Where is Jong AZ vs NAC Breda being played?
The match is being played at AFAS Trainingscomplex.
What competition is Jong AZ vs NAC Breda part of?
Jong AZ vs NAC Breda is a Eerste Divisie fixture (matchday 27) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong AZ vs NAC Breda?
Our statistical model gives Jong AZ a 41% chance of winning, NAC Breda a 32% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Jong AZ the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong AZ vs NAC Breda?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Jong AZ and NAC Breda will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Jong AZ vs NAC Breda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Jong AZ's attack at 1.09x the league average against NAC Breda's defence at 0.91x — combine the two and it projects 1.63 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, NAC Breda's attack versus Jong AZ's defence, projects 1.44 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Jong AZ's last 64 games and NAC Breda's last 64 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Jong AZ Win
41%
2.46
27%
3.68
32%
3.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 2
7.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.63
Jong AZ xG
Total xG
3.06
1.44
NAC Breda xG
2.46
41%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
3.11
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.69
Clean Sheet
24%
4.20
20%
5.10
Win to Nil
10%
10.32
6%
15.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 6.7 | 4.8 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 10.9 | 7.8 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 8.9 | 6.4 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.8 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Jong AZ vs NAC Breda Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong AZ vs NAC Breda?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Jong AZ and NAC Breda expected to score?
The model projects 1.63 expected goals for Jong AZ and 1.44 for NAC Breda, a combined total of 3.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong AZ vs NAC Breda?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 64 outings, Jong AZ have picked up 1.41 PPG on a 25W 15D 24L record — W-L-W-W-D across the most recent five.
NAC Breda's form line: 27W 12D 25L from 64 games, 1.45 PPG, last five L-D-D-D-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Jong AZ on 1.41 PPG, NAC Breda on 1.45. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Jong AZ have posted 1.78 PPG from their last 32 home games (16W 9D 7L).
On the road, NAC Breda have gone 13W 5D 14L from their last 32 away games — 1.38 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jong AZ come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Jong AZ are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; NAC Breda are on 1.69 scored and 1.61 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: NAC Breda in 72%.
Last 64 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong AZ
Blended
NAC Breda
Blended
Jong AZ (Home) vs NAC Breda (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Jong AZ
Blended
NAC Breda
Blended
❓ Jong AZ vs NAC Breda Form FAQs
What form are Jong AZ and NAC Breda in coming into this match?
Jong AZ have gone 25W 15D 24L in their last 64 games (1.41 PPG), while NAC Breda have gone 27W 12D 25L in their last 64 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong AZ at home or NAC Breda away?
Jong AZ's home record (1.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong AZ at home: 1.78 PPG; NAC Breda away: 1.38 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 6 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2021. All of them came in Eerste Divisie. The most recent in our data was on 26 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: NAC Breda have taken the most recent 3 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 7 Oct 2022, when Jong AZ won Jong AZ 4-0 NAC Breda.
Jong AZ's record when hosting NAC Breda specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Jong AZ
0
Draws
5
NAC Breda
Recent Meetings
❓ Jong AZ vs NAC Breda H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Jong AZ and NAC Breda?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Jong AZ have won 1, NAC Breda have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Jong AZ and NAC Breda last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 26 February 2024: Jong AZ 2-3 NAC Breda.
Who has won more matches between Jong AZ and NAC Breda?
NAC Breda have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Jong AZ are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 44% of those situations.
NAC Breda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 43% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jong AZ 56%, NAC Breda 72% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 56% for Jong AZ and 72% for NAC Breda. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Jong AZ keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong AZ home games / NAC Breda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Jong AZ vs NAC Breda Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Jong AZ and NAC Breda matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Jong AZ's games and 72% of NAC Breda's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Jong AZ and NAC Breda matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Jong AZ's matches and 72% of NAC Breda's.
Do Jong AZ and NAC Breda matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 78% of Jong AZ's recent matches and 88% of NAC Breda's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as NAC Breda defy the odds to beat Jong AZ 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
NAC Breda beat Jong AZ 2-3 at AFAS Trainingscomplex, Regular Season - 27, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong AZ 1.63 xG and NAC Breda 1.44 xG, a combined 3.06. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. NAC Breda outscored their 1.44 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong AZ attack 1.09 / defence 0.93 against NAC Breda attack 1.18 / defence 0.91, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jong AZ 41% | Draw 27% | NAC Breda 32%, with Jong AZ to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual NAC Breda win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong AZ 61%, NAC Breda 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jong AZ's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
NAC Breda's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jong AZ 1.41 PPG, NAC Breda 1.45 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the NAC Breda win broke the near-deadlock. Jong AZ (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual. NAC Breda (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.72 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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